Blog - The Lending Coach

Now’s the Time: Mortgage Rates Are Dropping, but the Window May Be Short

September 12, 2025 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

Mortgage interest rates have taken a welcome step lower in the past nine days—and that means homeowners have a fresh opportunity to refinance.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate slid to 6.35% the week ending September 11, down about 0.15% from the prior week.

The 15-year and 20-year fixed fell as well, landing around 5.875%.

For investment properties and 2nd homes, we are seeing rates in the mid 6% range, as well.

Other industry surveys—Bankrate, Money.com, and Reuters—are showing similar declines across the board.

What’s Driving the Drop

The reason for the dip lies in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, has retreated in recent days.

Investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting short-term interest rates later this month.

Combined with softer labor market data and easing inflation pressure, long-term yields have fallen—and mortgage rates have followed.

Treasury Dips Don’t Last Long

If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Since mid-2023, there have been eight significant downward moves in the 10-year Treasury yield.

You can see them highlighted in the chart above.

Each one of those dips lasted anywhere from just three days to three weeks before the trend reversed and rates climbed again.

That’s the key takeaway: lower-rate windows don’t last long. Waiting to see if rates fall further often means missing the opportunity altogether.

Why Refinancing Now Makes Sense

If you bought a home within the past two and a half years, there’s a good chance your mortgage rate is higher than where the market is today.

Even a small rate reduction can create meaningful monthly savings and improve long-term financial flexibility.

If you’ve recently completed a cash-out refinance, now may be an especially smart time to review your options. Lowering your interest rate can reduce the cost of carrying that debt, even if you pulled equity from your home earlier this year.

Beyond lowering monthly payments, refinancing may also help you:

Switch from a 30-year to a 15- or 20-year term, paying off your home faster.
Consolidate higher-interest debt into your mortgage at a lower rate.
Remove mortgage insurance if you’ve built enough equity.

The Time to Act Is Now

Rates are still volatile.

Inflation readings, labor reports, and Federal Reserve announcements can all shift the bond market quickly. The history since 2023 is clear: when Treasury yields dip, mortgage rates dip too—but they rarely stay down for long.

That’s why now is the time to act.

If your current mortgage is above today’s averages, let’s run the numbers together. Locking in while rates are on the downside could secure savings that last for years to come.

Here’s The Bottom Line

Lower rates don’t wait around. If you’ve bought a home in the past 2.5 years or completed a recent cash-out refinance, this is your window to refinance into a smarter mortgage.

Reach out to me today to make sure you are not missing out and we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

The FHA Streamline Refinance Explained: Is It Right for You?

September 1, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

glass container with stainless scooper surrounded with paper bills

If you currently have an FHA loan, you may have heard about the FHA Streamline Refinance—a simplified refinance option designed to make lowering your interest rate fast and easy.

But is it the right move for you?

Let’s break it down in plain language so you can make a confident decision and have an understanding of the program’s pros and cons.

What Is an FHA Streamline Refinance?

The FHA Streamline Refinance is a special program from the Federal Housing Administration that allows homeowners with an existing FHA loan to refinance without the typical hassle. Here’s why people love it:

✅ No appraisal required – Your home’s current value doesn’t matter.
✅ Minimal documentation – Less paperwork than a traditional refinance.
✅ Fast process – In many cases, it can close in as little as 30 days.

The main goal? To help homeowners take advantage of lower interest rates and reduce their monthly payments without jumping through all the usual hoops.

Who Qualifies for an FHA Streamline?

To be eligible, you need to meet a few basic guidelines:

You must already have an FHA-insured mortgage.
You need a history of on-time payments. Generally, the last 6 months should be current.
Your new loan must have a net tangible benefit. That means it should lower your payment or move you to a more stable loan (like from an ARM to fixed).

One more important note: You cannot take cash out with this refinance. If you’re looking for cash from your equity, there are other options we can discuss.

What About the Appraisal?

No appraisal is usually required—which is a huge benefit if your home’s value hasn’t skyrocketed or if the market is soft. As long as you meet the payment history requirements and the loan has a net tangible benefit, you’re good to go.

What Are the Downsides?

Like any loan, there are trade-offs. A few things to keep in mind:

Mortgage insurance stays – If you have an FHA loan, you still have MIP (Mortgage Insurance Premium).
Not for cash-out needs – This is a “payment-saving” refinance only.
Closing costs still apply – Even though they can be financed, there are costs involved.

How Long Does It Take?

In most cases, FHA Streamline Refinances close in 30 days or less. That’s significantly faster than a traditional refinance because there’s less documentation and no appraisal to slow things down.

Is It Right for You?

If you:
✔ Have an FHA loan
✔ Want a lower payment
✔ Don’t need cash-out
✔ Like the idea of a quick and easy process

…then the FHA Streamline Refinance could be a perfect fit.

Ready to See Your Savings?

Every situation is different, so let’s crunch the numbers together.

You can reach out to me here…and if it’s easier, you can set an appointment with me here.

If an FHA Streamline Refinance can help you lower your payment, reduce your interest rate, and keep more money in your pocket, we’ll find out together!

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

August 25, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

housing market real estate prices business analytics

Let’s dive into a timely economic topic that’s buzzing in real estate circles: how potentially overstated inflation figures could pave the way for favorable conditions in the housing market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025.

This is particularly relevant for real estate agents guiding clients, buyers eyeing their dream home, and sellers looking to capitalize on improving market dynamics.

Let’s break it down step by step, drawing from recent analysis by MBS Highway and current market data.

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are key drivers of Federal Reserve policy, influencing everything from interest rates to mortgage affordability. But here’s the catch: these official numbers might be painting an overly pessimistic picture due to methodological quirks.

According to a recent MBS Highway snippet, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index showed blended rents decelerating to just 2.6% year-over-year in July— a clear sign of cooling in the rental market. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies heavily on imputed data, such as Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which stood at 4.1% in their calculations. OER essentially estimates what homeowners would pay if they rented their own homes, but it’s based on surveys and guesswork rather than real-time transaction data.

When you adjust the Core CPI using Zillow’s more granular, market-based figures and apply the appropriate weightings (shelter costs make up about a third of CPI), the inflation reading drops significantly.

MBS Highway estimates Core CPI is overstated by 0.5%, meaning it would clock in at 2.6% instead of the reported 3.1%. Similarly, Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred gauge— is overstated by 0.2%, landing at 2.6% rather than 2.8%. These adjustments even account for external factors like tariffs, which add some upward pressure but are hard to quantify precisely.

The bottom line? The BLS’s use of lagging, imputed data could be inflating perceptions of economic heat. If policymakers shift toward real-time sources like Zillow’s index, we might see a more accurate (and lower) inflation narrative.

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

This discrepancy matters because it directly ties into the Fed’s actions. With inflation appearing stickier than it might actually be, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been cautious. However, markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17, 2025, meeting— with over 85% odds according to CME FedWatch data.

Economists from firms like J.P. Morgan and Nomura have brought forward their forecasts, expecting this cut amid signs of a softening labor market and broader economic cooling.

Lower federal funds rates typically translate to reduced mortgage rates, making borrowing cheaper. If the Fed acknowledges that inflation is lower than BLS figures suggest (perhaps influenced by real-time data), we could see even more aggressive easing.

This is a game-changer for the real estate sector, where high rates have sidelined many participants in recent years.

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Compounding this opportunity is the steady improvement in housing inventory. As of July 2025, active listings nationwide reached over 1.1 million— up 28.9% year-over-year in June and continuing to surge.

Regions like the West and South are seeing the biggest gains, with increases of 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. This shift toward pre-pandemic levels means more choices for buyers, potentially easing price pressures and creating negotiating leverage.

For real estate buyers: If Zillow’s rent data proves more reflective of true shelter costs, corrected inflation could accelerate rate cuts, lowering your monthly payments.

With inventory climbing, now’s the time to lock in a property before competition heats up. Imagine securing a low-cost mortgage that fits your long-term goals— building equity and wealth for generations.

For sellers: More buyers entering the market due to affordability improvements could mean quicker sales and stronger offers. But don’t wait too long; as inventory grows, the balance might tip further toward buyers.

For agents: Educate your clients on these dynamics. Highlight how overstated inflation might be holding back rate relief, and position September’s Fed decision as a pivotal moment. Tools like Zillow’s real-time insights can help demonstrate market realities beyond official stats.

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

As The Lending Coach, I’m all about transparency and tailoring solutions to your needs.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Arizona, or an agent partnering on deals in California, let’s chat about how a potential rate cut could work in your favor.

I love building relationships over the phone— by reaching out to me today, we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

Timing the Mortgage Refinance Market: Why Preparation is Everything

August 18, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

computer laptop beside hour glass on brown wooden surface

When it comes to refinancing your mortgage, timing isn’t just important—it’s everything.

The chart above of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield shows a clear pattern: rates dip only occasionally, and those dips are often short-lived.

The highlighted yellow sections mark the moments when interest rates were at their lowest, and each time, the opportunity lasted only briefly before rates bounced higher.

Missing that window could mean paying thousands more in interest over the life of your loan.

Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator for mortgage rates. While the two aren’t identical, they move in the same direction.

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and do not closely follow the federal funds rate in the short term.

When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates usually follow—making these rare dips the sweet spot for locking in a lower rate. The challenge is that the market doesn’t send out a “last call” before it shifts. Rates tend to drift lower over time, but they can spike back up overnight.

That’s why being prepared before the dip happens is crucial.

two red balloons with percentage symbols on white background

Today’s Rates

Right now, we’re in a market where rates have been easing slightly. If they dip just a little more, it could create one of those rare refinancing windows for those with mortgages done in the last 3 years—whether for your primary home or an investment property.

But history tells us those windows don’t stay open for long. Waiting until rates hit bottom before starting your refinance process often means you’re already too late.

Beware Unwanted Solicitations

You may also notice that during these periods, you’ll get calls, texts, or emails from other lenders—or even your current loan servicer—promising incredibly low rates.

Many of those “too good to be true” offers come with fine print or hidden conditions. Sometimes, the rate being advertised isn’t even available to you based on your profile.

My role is to cut through the noise and guide you toward the right move at the right time, with terms that truly benefit you.

Get Ready Now

The smartest way to capture one of these brief dips is to be ready in advance. That means putting together or updating your application, pulling any needed documentation, and having your financial picture up to date.

male athlete preparing to sprint on track

This way, when the market hits that sweet spot, we can move instantly to lock in the best rate—before it disappears. Think of it like a runner crouched at the starting line, ready to sprint the moment the gun fires.

If we prepare now, you won’t need to scramble when the market moves. We’ll already have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity.

This preparation could save you not only money on your monthly payment but also tens of thousands over the life of your mortgage. And for investors, locking in a lower rate means improved cash flow and a stronger long-term return on your property.

The Bottom Line

Refinancing is all about timing, and timing is about preparation. The dips in the market happen quickly and without warning.

By reaching out to me today, we can position you to act decisively when the next one arrives. Don’t leave your savings to chance—let’s get ready now so that when the right moment comes, you’ll be first in line to benefit.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

Why a Triple Net Lease Could Be a Smart Strategy for Real Estate Investors

August 11, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

When you start exploring real estate investing, you’ll likely hear about a variety of lease structures—gross leases, modified gross leases, and triple net leases, just to name a few.

One that often gets overlooked, especially among newer investors targeting 1 to 4 unit residential properties, is the triple net lease, commonly abbreviated as NNN lease.

While traditionally associated with commercial properties, the principles of NNN leases are starting to show up in more residential-style investments, especially for investors looking to minimize day-to-day management and stabilize income.

What is a Triple Net Lease?

A triple net lease is a leasing agreement where the tenant agrees to pay three key expense categories in addition to the base rent: property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.

In other words, the tenant assumes much of the financial responsibility that landlords typically carry.

This structure reduces the landlord’s operational costs and creates a more predictable income stream, making it especially appealing to hands-off investors or those scaling their portfolio.

Check out this link to see the specifics of Real Estate Agent Linda Gerchick’s triple net property…

Why Target a NNN?

For investors who are considering small multifamily homes, duplexes, or even single-family rentals with long-term tenants—an NNN-style lease can offer significant advantages.

While residential leases typically operate under a gross rent structure, savvy investors can negotiate lease terms that emulate the NNN model.

A “Hands-Off” Approach

For example, in a long-term rental agreement with a single tenant, you might stipulate that the tenant handles all utilities, landscaping, minor maintenance, and even a portion of taxes or insurance through structured rent increases.

One of the primary benefits of this structure is reduced landlord responsibility.

You’re no longer on the hook for that leaking water heater or the rising property tax bill—those costs are built into the lease.

This can significantly decrease the time and stress associated with managing rental property, freeing you up to focus on acquiring more assets or simply enjoying passive income.

Steady Cash-Flow

Another powerful benefit is predictable cash flow. With fewer surprise expenses coming out of your pocket, the net income from your property becomes easier to forecast.

That predictability is crucial for financial planning and is especially attractive to real estate investors using leverage (i.e., a mortgage) to finance their purchases.

Knowing your fixed monthly income simplifies budgeting for mortgage payments, reserves, and future property improvements.

A Great ROI

In addition to predictable income, triple net leases can also lead to higher returns on investment over time.

When tenants take care of minor repairs and routine upkeep, you’re not only saving money in the short term—you’re also reducing long-term capital expenditures.

That preservation of the property’s condition helps protect and even enhance your asset’s value.

The Best Tenants

This model also tends to attract high-quality tenants.

Tenants willing to take on NNN-style responsibilities usually value stability and take greater pride in the property, leading to longer lease terms, fewer vacancies, and less wear and tear.

For residential investors, this could mean fewer turnover costs, lower vacancy risk, and a smoother long-term experience overall.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

For investors working with me as their mortgage coach, this strategy aligns well with long-term wealth-building goals.

Lower expenses, steady cash flow, and less hands-on management mean you can scale your portfolio more quickly and focus on the bigger picture—whether that’s financial freedom, early retirement, or building a legacy for your family.

Pairing the right financing strategy with the right lease structure can be a game-changer.

I’d be glad to coach you through structuring your financing and put you in touch with real estate agents like Linda Gerchick who can make sure your investment works for you—not the other way around.

If you’re looking to invest in 1 to 4 unit properties and want to explore lease options that maximize your return while minimizing your headaches, please do reach out to me. You can set an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

Now’s the Time: Mortgage Rates Are Dropping, but the Window May Be Short

What’s Driving the Drop

Treasury Dips Don’t Last Long

Why Refinancing Now Makes Sense

The Time to Act Is Now

Here’s The Bottom Line

The FHA Streamline Refinance Explained: Is It Right for You?

What Is an FHA Streamline Refinance?

Who Qualifies for an FHA Streamline?

What About the Appraisal?

What Are the Downsides?

How Long Does It Take?

Is It Right for You?

Ready to See Your Savings?

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

Timing the Mortgage Refinance Market: Why Preparation is Everything

Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Today’s Rates

Beware Unwanted Solicitations

Get Ready Now

The Bottom Line

Why a Triple Net Lease Could Be a Smart Strategy for Real Estate Investors

What is a Triple Net Lease?

Why Target a NNN?

A “Hands-Off” Approach

Steady Cash-Flow

A Great ROI

The Best Tenants

How The Lending Coach Can Help

Apply Now – Online Application

Schedule Appointment With Tom

Guild Mortgage

Contact Tom

About The Coach

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