The Lending Coach

Coaching and teaching - many through the mortgage process and others on the field

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

housing market real estate prices business analytics

Let’s dive into a timely economic topic that’s buzzing in real estate circles: how potentially overstated inflation figures could pave the way for favorable conditions in the housing market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025.

people holding a miniature wooden house

This is particularly relevant for real estate agents guiding clients, buyers eyeing their dream home, and sellers looking to capitalize on improving market dynamics.

Let’s break it down step by step, drawing from recent analysis by MBS Highway and current market data.

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are key drivers of Federal Reserve policy, influencing everything from interest rates to mortgage affordability. But here’s the catch: these official numbers might be painting an overly pessimistic picture due to methodological quirks.

According to a recent MBS Highway snippet, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index showed blended rents decelerating to just 2.6% year-over-year in July— a clear sign of cooling in the rental market. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies heavily on imputed data, such as Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which stood at 4.1% in their calculations. OER essentially estimates what homeowners would pay if they rented their own homes, but it’s based on surveys and guesswork rather than real-time transaction data.

codes on tilt shift lens

When you adjust the Core CPI using Zillow’s more granular, market-based figures and apply the appropriate weightings (shelter costs make up about a third of CPI), the inflation reading drops significantly.

MBS Highway estimates Core CPI is overstated by 0.5%, meaning it would clock in at 2.6% instead of the reported 3.1%. Similarly, Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred gauge— is overstated by 0.2%, landing at 2.6% rather than 2.8%. These adjustments even account for external factors like tariffs, which add some upward pressure but are hard to quantify precisely.

The bottom line? The BLS’s use of lagging, imputed data could be inflating perceptions of economic heat. If policymakers shift toward real-time sources like Zillow’s index, we might see a more accurate (and lower) inflation narrative.

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

This discrepancy matters because it directly ties into the Fed’s actions. With inflation appearing stickier than it might actually be, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been cautious. However, markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17, 2025, meeting— with over 85% odds according to CME FedWatch data.

person holding u s dollar banknotes

Economists from firms like J.P. Morgan and Nomura have brought forward their forecasts, expecting this cut amid signs of a softening labor market and broader economic cooling.

Lower federal funds rates typically translate to reduced mortgage rates, making borrowing cheaper. If the Fed acknowledges that inflation is lower than BLS figures suggest (perhaps influenced by real-time data), we could see even more aggressive easing.

This is a game-changer for the real estate sector, where high rates have sidelined many participants in recent years.

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Compounding this opportunity is the steady improvement in housing inventory. As of July 2025, active listings nationwide reached over 1.1 million— up 28.9% year-over-year in June and continuing to surge.

Regions like the West and South are seeing the biggest gains, with increases of 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. This shift toward pre-pandemic levels means more choices for buyers, potentially easing price pressures and creating negotiating leverage.

For real estate buyers: If Zillow’s rent data proves more reflective of true shelter costs, corrected inflation could accelerate rate cuts, lowering your monthly payments.

Home with magnifier

With inventory climbing, now’s the time to lock in a property before competition heats up. Imagine securing a low-cost mortgage that fits your long-term goals— building equity and wealth for generations.

For sellers: More buyers entering the market due to affordability improvements could mean quicker sales and stronger offers. But don’t wait too long; as inventory grows, the balance might tip further toward buyers.

For agents: Educate your clients on these dynamics. Highlight how overstated inflation might be holding back rate relief, and position September’s Fed decision as a pivotal moment. Tools like Zillow’s real-time insights can help demonstrate market realities beyond official stats.

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

As The Lending Coach, I’m all about transparency and tailoring solutions to your needs.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Arizona, or an agent partnering on deals in California, let’s chat about how a potential rate cut could work in your favor.

I love building relationships over the phone— by reaching out to me today, we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Timing the Mortgage Refinance Market: Why Preparation is Everything

computer laptop beside hour glass on brown wooden surface

When it comes to refinancing your mortgage, timing isn’t just important—it’s everything.

10-year treasury chart

The chart above of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield shows a clear pattern: rates dip only occasionally, and those dips are often short-lived.

heap of banknotes beside hourglass

The highlighted yellow sections mark the moments when interest rates were at their lowest, and each time, the opportunity lasted only briefly before rates bounced higher.

Missing that window could mean paying thousands more in interest over the life of your loan.

Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator for mortgage rates. While the two aren’t identical, they move in the same direction.

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and do not closely follow the federal funds rate in the short term.

When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates usually follow—making these rare dips the sweet spot for locking in a lower rate. The challenge is that the market doesn’t send out a “last call” before it shifts. Rates tend to drift lower over time, but they can spike back up overnight.

That’s why being prepared before the dip happens is crucial.

two red balloons with percentage symbols on white background

Today’s Rates

Right now, we’re in a market where rates have been easing slightly. If they dip just a little more, it could create one of those rare refinancing windows for those with mortgages done in the last 3 years—whether for your primary home or an investment property.

But history tells us those windows don’t stay open for long. Waiting until rates hit bottom before starting your refinance process often means you’re already too late.

Beware Unwanted Solicitations

You may also notice that during these periods, you’ll get calls, texts, or emails from other lenders—or even your current loan servicer—promising incredibly low rates.

Woman yelling into phone

Many of those “too good to be true” offers come with fine print or hidden conditions. Sometimes, the rate being advertised isn’t even available to you based on your profile.

My role is to cut through the noise and guide you toward the right move at the right time, with terms that truly benefit you.

Get Ready Now

The smartest way to capture one of these brief dips is to be ready in advance. That means putting together or updating your application, pulling any needed documentation, and having your financial picture up to date.

male athlete preparing to sprint on track

This way, when the market hits that sweet spot, we can move instantly to lock in the best rate—before it disappears. Think of it like a runner crouched at the starting line, ready to sprint the moment the gun fires.

If we prepare now, you won’t need to scramble when the market moves. We’ll already have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity.

This preparation could save you not only money on your monthly payment but also tens of thousands over the life of your mortgage. And for investors, locking in a lower rate means improved cash flow and a stronger long-term return on your property.

The Bottom Line

Refinancing is all about timing, and timing is about preparation. The dips in the market happen quickly and without warning.

By reaching out to me today, we can position you to act decisively when the next one arrives. Don’t leave your savings to chance—let’s get ready now so that when the right moment comes, you’ll be first in line to benefit.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Why a Triple Net Lease Could Be a Smart Strategy for Real Estate Investors

4-plex in Phoenix

When you start exploring real estate investing, you’ll likely hear about a variety of lease structures—gross leases, modified gross leases, and triple net leases, just to name a few.

One that often gets overlooked, especially among newer investors targeting 1 to 4 unit residential properties, is the triple net lease, commonly abbreviated as NNN lease.

While traditionally associated with commercial properties, the principles of NNN leases are starting to show up in more residential-style investments, especially for investors looking to minimize day-to-day management and stabilize income.

black pens on white printer paper

What is a Triple Net Lease?

A triple net lease is a leasing agreement where the tenant agrees to pay three key expense categories in addition to the base rent: property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.

In other words, the tenant assumes much of the financial responsibility that landlords typically carry.

This structure reduces the landlord’s operational costs and creates a more predictable income stream, making it especially appealing to hands-off investors or those scaling their portfolio.

Check out this link to see the specifics of Real Estate Agent Linda Gerchick’s triple net property…

Why Target a NNN?

Triple net unit

For investors who are considering small multifamily homes, duplexes, or even single-family rentals with long-term tenants—an NNN-style lease can offer significant advantages.

While residential leases typically operate under a gross rent structure, savvy investors can negotiate lease terms that emulate the NNN model.

A “Hands-Off” Approach

For example, in a long-term rental agreement with a single tenant, you might stipulate that the tenant handles all utilities, landscaping, minor maintenance, and even a portion of taxes or insurance through structured rent increases.

One of the primary benefits of this structure is reduced landlord responsibility.

You’re no longer on the hook for that leaking water heater or the rising property tax bill—those costs are built into the lease.

This can significantly decrease the time and stress associated with managing rental property, freeing you up to focus on acquiring more assets or simply enjoying passive income.

Steady Cash-Flow

Another powerful benefit is predictable cash flow. With fewer surprise expenses coming out of your pocket, the net income from your property becomes easier to forecast.

That predictability is crucial for financial planning and is especially attractive to real estate investors using leverage (i.e., a mortgage) to finance their purchases.

rolls of cash

Knowing your fixed monthly income simplifies budgeting for mortgage payments, reserves, and future property improvements.

A Great ROI

In addition to predictable income, triple net leases can also lead to higher returns on investment over time.

When tenants take care of minor repairs and routine upkeep, you’re not only saving money in the short term—you’re also reducing long-term capital expenditures.

That preservation of the property’s condition helps protect and even enhance your asset’s value.

The Best Tenants

This model also tends to attract high-quality tenants.

Tenants willing to take on NNN-style responsibilities usually value stability and take greater pride in the property, leading to longer lease terms, fewer vacancies, and less wear and tear.

For residential investors, this could mean fewer turnover costs, lower vacancy risk, and a smoother long-term experience overall.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

For investors working with me as their mortgage coach, this strategy aligns well with long-term wealth-building goals.

Linda Gerchick

Lower expenses, steady cash flow, and less hands-on management mean you can scale your portfolio more quickly and focus on the bigger picture—whether that’s financial freedom, early retirement, or building a legacy for your family.

Pairing the right financing strategy with the right lease structure can be a game-changer.

I’d be glad to coach you through structuring your financing and put you in touch with real estate agents like Linda Gerchick who can make sure your investment works for you—not the other way around.

If you’re looking to invest in 1 to 4 unit properties and want to explore lease options that maximize your return while minimizing your headaches, please do reach out to me.  You can set an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

How to Buy a Home When You Have Student Loan Debt | A Smart, Step-by-Step Guide for Today’s Homebuyers

Graduates with confetti

If you’re carrying student loan debt and dreaming of owning a home, you’re not alone—and you’re certainly not out of luck.

One of the biggest myths I hear from first-time buyers is that student loans automatically disqualify them from getting a mortgage.

photo of person holding diploma

The truth is, buying a home with student loan debt is absolutely possible. In fact, I’ve helped many clients just like you navigate the process successfully.

With the right plan, a little guidance, and a mortgage coach in your corner, you can turn the dream of homeownership into a reality—even with those loan balances hanging around.

How Does Debt Impact Eligibility?

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room: student debt does impact your mortgage eligibility—but not always in the way people assume.

Lenders don’t just look at your loan balance; they’re far more focused on your monthly payments and how they fit into your overall debt-to-income ratio (DTI).

This ratio is simply a calculation that compares your monthly debts (including student loans, car loans, credit cards, and your future mortgage payment) to your monthly income.

Most loan programs have DTI limits, but if your payments are manageable and you’ve got steady income, qualifying is often well within reach.

Student Loans in Deferment

person holding black smartphone and white printer paper

Now here’s where it gets interesting: even if your student loans are in deferment or income-based repayment (IBR), there are options.

For example, FHA loans use a standardized 0.5% of the loan balance if there’s no payment reported—or they’ll use the actual IBR payment if it’s fully documented.

Conventional loans through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac often allow you to qualify using the lower actual IBR payment, which can make a huge difference. Each loan program treats student loans a bit differently, and knowing how to match the right loan to your financial profile is key.

That’s where smart mortgage coaching really comes into play.

Credit Score and Financial Health

Aside from loan program guidelines, your credit score and overall financial health also matter. The good news?

Making consistent student loan payments over time can actually help your credit score. If your credit needs some TLC, don’t worry—that’s something I help clients with regularly.

Random credit score numbers

Sometimes just a few small tweaks can raise your score enough to improve your rate or open up better loan options. We can review your credit report together and come up with a strategy that puts you in a stronger position.

Other Options

Another way to improve your chances is to lower other monthly debts or increase your income—two things that can quickly shift your DTI in the right direction. This could mean paying off a small car loan or credit card, picking up a side hustle, or even getting a co-borrower involved if it makes sense.

Remember, every situation is unique, and that’s why working with someone who takes the time to understand your goals makes all the difference.

Don’t Do It By Yourself – Get Expert Advice

One thing I always stress with my clients is this: don’t try to “figure it all out” on your own. The mortgage process can feel overwhelming, especially when student loans are part of the picture—but it doesn’t have to be.

My job as The Lending Coach is to break things down clearly, help you understand your options, and walk you through a plan that fits your life and your timeline. There’s no pressure—just clarity, strategy, and support.

So, if you’ve been holding off on buying a home because of your student loans, now is the time to take a fresh look. You might be closer to qualifying than you think.

You can connect with me here – so we can review your full financial picture and create a custom plan to move you forward. You absolutely can build wealth through real estate—and student debt doesn’t have to hold you back.

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Truflation: A New Lens for Understanding Inflation and Seizing Market Opportunities

As a potential home buyer, investor, or real estate professional, understanding inflation is critical to making informed financial decisions.

marketing businessman person hands

As The Lending Coach, I’m committed to helping my clients in Arizona and California build generational wealth through smart mortgage strategies.

One tool gaining attention in the economic landscape is Truflation, a blockchain-based, real-time inflation index that claims to offer a more accurate and timely alternative to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In this post, I’ll explore what Truflation is, evaluate its reliability compared to BLS data, and discuss how borrowers, investors, and real estate agents can leverage this metric to spot market opportunities.

What is “Truflation”?

Truflation is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that tracks inflation in real time, using over 18 million data points from more than 60 data providers.

Unlike the BLS CPI, which relies on a fixed basket of goods and services and is updated monthly with a 45-day lag, Truflation pulls daily price data for a wide range of consumer goods and services. This allows it to reflect current market conditions more dynamically.

black and white analog watch

Truflation’s methodology is transparent, auditable, and market-driven, aiming to address perceived shortcomings in traditional inflation metrics, such as outdated frameworks and subjective adjustments.

For example, posts on X have highlighted Truflation’s advantages, noting its use of 15 million data points compared to the BLS’s 80,000, and its real-time updates versus the BLS’s delayed reporting.

Additionally, Truflation avoids “black box” methodologies and centralized control, making it an appealing alternative for those seeking economic transparency.

Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?

The BLS CPI, while widely used, has faced criticism for its limitations. The CPI framework, last significantly updated in 1999, may not fully capture the realities of today’s economy, where e-commerce, electric vehicles, and other modern factors play significant roles.

For instance, the CPI uses “hedonic adjustments” to account for quality improvements, which introduces subjectivity and can understate inflation’s impact. Additionally, the CPI excludes asset prices like real estate and stocks, potentially missing key drivers of wealth and cost-of-living changes.

Truflation, by contrast, offers several advantages:

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band
  • Real-Time Data: Truflation updates daily, providing a near-instantaneous view of price changes, while BLS data lags by weeks. This timeliness can be crucial for anticipating market shifts.
  • Granular and Transparent: With millions of data points and an auditable blockchain framework, Truflation reduces reliance on subjective adjustments and centralized control.
  • Correlation with CPI: Despite its differences, Truflation’s inflation measurements have shown a high correlation (0.97 to 0.99) with headline CPI since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, suggesting it’s a credible alternative.

However, Truflation is not without challenges. Its lack of seasonal adjustments and reliance on actual prices without imputation may lead to volatility in its readings.

Additionally, as a newer metric, it lacks the long-term track record and institutional acceptance of the BLS CPI, which remains the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for monetary policy. While some X users argue Truflation is “way more accurate than the market,” its reliability depends on the context and use case.

Tom Bonetto pic

As The Lending Coach, I specifically value transparency and accuracy, and Truflation’s approach aligns with my commitment to honesty and understanding of my clients’ needs.

While the BLS CPI remains the standard, Truflation’s real-time insights offer a compelling complement for those navigating fast-moving markets.

Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents

For borrowers, investors, and real estate agents, Truflation’s real-time data can provide a competitive edge in identifying market opportunities, particularly in the housing market. Here’s how:

For Borrowers

Rolled bills
  • Anticipating Interest Rate Trends: Truflation’s ability to signal inflation trends earlier than the BLS CPI can help borrowers anticipate Federal Reserve actions. For example, a post on X noted that Truflation identified a disinflationary trend in December 2024, ahead of the BLS’s confirmation. If Truflation indicates rising inflation, borrowers may want to lock in fixed-rate mortgages sooner to avoid higher interest rates. At Efficient Lending, we guide clients to secure favorable terms early, ensuring affordability in an inflationary environment.
  • Leveraging Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Inflation benefits borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, as future payments are made with “cheaper” dollars. Truflation’s real-time insights can help borrowers time their applications to capitalize on this dynamic before rates rise.
  • Wealth-Building Opportunities: Real estate is a proven hedge against inflation, as home values often rise faster than the CPI. Truflation’s data can help borrowers identify periods of accelerating inflation, signaling a strong time to invest in property to build long-term wealth.

For Real Estate Agents and Investors

  • Market Timing: Truflation’s daily updates allow agents to spot inflationary trends that could affect housing demand and pricing. For instance, if Truflation signals rising inflation, agents can advise clients to act quickly before higher mortgage rates reduce affordability.
  • Rental Market Insights: During inflationary periods, rental prices tend to rise due to increased demand and limited supply. Truflation’s granular data can help agents identify markets where rental demand is surging, enabling them to guide investor clients toward high-return opportunities.
  • Client Education: Agents can use Truflation’s transparent data to educate clients about market conditions, building trust through clear, data-driven advice. This aligns with Efficient Lending’s value of explaining the nuances of mortgage and real estate decisions to empower clients.

Recent Results and Context

person standing on arrow

As of July 2025, Truflation reported a U.S. inflation rate of 1.82%, compared to the BLS CPI’s 2.7% for the 12 months ending June.

This discrepancy suggests Truflation may detect deflationary or disinflationary trends faster than the BLS, potentially giving borrowers and agents an early warning to adjust strategies.

For example, a lower Truflation rate could signal a window to secure lower mortgage rates before the market catches up.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

I believe in building lasting relationships based on trust, transparency, and education.

Whether you’re a borrower looking to secure a mortgage that fits your unique needs or a real estate agent seeking to guide clients through a dynamic market, I’m here to help.

By staying informed about tools like Truflation, I can provide timely advice to help you capitalize on market opportunities and build generational wealth through real estate.

To learn more about how inflation trends affect your mortgage or real estate strategy, please do reach out to me here…

Ready to take the next step? You can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

Sources:

  • Truflation.com
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • GIS Reports Online
  • Arrived.com
  • Investopedia
  • Posts on X

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

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