The Lending Coach

Coaching and teaching - many through the mortgage process and others on the field

Category: Mortgage (page 1 of 13)

It’s Time To Seriously Consider a Refinance

Tapping into home equity by refinancing is more of a possibility today and becoming very popular for many borrowers.

As interest rates have moved lower in the last 3 weeks and housing values across the country continue to steadily increase, homeowners now have access to a much larger source of equity and possibly better payment terms!

With current mortgage rates low and home equity on the rise, many think it’s a perfect time to refinance your mortgage to save not only on your overall monthly payments, but your overall interest costs as well.

It’s really about managing the overall assets that you have in order to maximize the returns. Make sure you are working with the right mortgage lender to help in figuring out which product is best.

What is a Cash-Out Refinance?

A mortgage refinance happens when the homeowner gets a new loan to replace the current mortgage. A cash-out refinance happens when the borrower refinances for more than the amount owed on their existing home loan. The borrower takes the difference in cash.

Rates Are Down and Home Equity is Up

Since rising home values are returning lost equity to many homeowners, refinancing can make a good deal of sense with even a small difference in your interest rate. Homeowners now have options to do many things with the difference.

More home equity also means you won’t need to bring cash to the table to refinance. Furthermore, interest rates can be slightly lower when your loan-to-value ratio drops below 80 percent.

Here’s what many of my customers are doing with that equity:

  • Consolidate higher interest debt
  • Eliminate mortgage insurance
  • Purchase a 2nd Home or Investment Property (or a combination of both)
  • Home Improvement – upgrades to kitchen, roof, or pool

Benefits of Cash-out Refinances

Free Up Cash – A cash-out refinance is a way to access money you already have in your home to pay off big bills such as college tuition, medical expenses, new business funding or home improvements. It often comes at a more attractive interest rate than those on unsecured personal loans, student loans or credit cards.

Improve your debt profile – Using a refinance to reduce or consolidate credit card debt is also a great reason for a cash-out refinance. We can look at the weighted average interest rate on a borrower’s credit cards and other liabilities to determine whether moving the debt to a mortgage will get them a lower rate.  Some borrowers are saving thousands per month by consolidating their debt through their mortgage.

More stable rate – Many borrowers choose to do a cash-out refinance for home improvement projects because they want a steady interest rate instead of an adjustable rate that comes with home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs.

2nd Home or Investment Property – many borrowers are utilizing the value of the cash in their home to purchase rental properties that cash flow better then the monthly payments of the new loan.

Tax deductions – Unlike credit card interest, mortgage interest payments are tax deductible. That means a cash-out refinance could reduce your taxable income and land you a bigger tax refund.

Reasons NOT to Refinance

Terms and costs – While you may get a lower interest rate than your current mortgage, your cash-out refinance rate will be higher than a regular rate-and-term refinance at market rate. Even if your credit score is 800, you will pay a little bit more, usually an eighth of a percentage point higher, than a purchase mortgage. Generally, closing costs are added to the balance of the new loan, as well.

Paperwork headache – Borrowers need to gather many of the same documents they did when they first got their home loan. Lenders will generally require the past 2 years of tax returns, past 2 years of W-2 forms, 30 days’ worth of pay stubs, and possibly more, depending on your situation.

Enabling bad habits – If you’re doing a cash-out refinance to pay off credit card debt, you’re freeing up your credit limit. Avoid falling back into bad habits and running up your cards again.

The Bottom Line

A cash-out refinance can make sense if you can get a good interest rate on the new loan and have a good use for the money.

Using the money to purchase a rental property, fund a home renovation or consolidate debt can rebuild the equity you’re taking out or help you get in a better financial position. 

With that said, seeking a refinance to fund vacations or a new car might not be that great of an idea, because you’ll have little to no return on your money. 

It would be my pleasure to see if this type of plan might be a good one for you.

Mortgage Insurance – Mistakes to Avoid and How to Pay Less

Most loans with less than 20 percent down (for purchases) or home equity (for refinances) require some form of mortgage insurance. This can be pricey for some borrowers, so it’s important to have a strategy to deal with this type of insurance.

Everyone wants to pay less for mortgage insurance and with a little preparation and some shopping around that may be possible.

But before we look at lower costs, let’s first explain what mortgage insurance (MI or PMI for ‘private mortgage insurance’) really is.

I highly recommend that you read the entirety of Peter Miller’s post from The Mortgage Reports, although I’ve put together a few key pieces from his article below…and my article on Mortgage Insurance here…

For conventional (non-government) loans, it may be also be called PMI, or private mortgage insurance. FHA programs require mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) regardless of the size of down payment.

VA home loans call their insurance premium a funding fee. Some lenders may not require a separate insurance policy, but charge a higher interest rate to cover their risk.

Why 20 percent down?

Mortgage lenders really, really want you to buy a home with at least 20 percent down. That’s because it substantially reduces their losses if you don’t repay your loan and they have to foreclose.

However, most homebuyers, especially first-timers, don’t have 20 percent to purchase a property. The National Association of Realtors lists these figures for median down payments in 2018:

  • All buyers: 13 percent
  • First-time buyers: 7 percent
  • Repeat buyers: 16 percent

If you don’t have 20 percent down, most lenders force you to purchase mortgage insurance. The policy covers their losses if you default and they don’t fully recover their costs in a foreclosure sale.

How much does mortgage insurance cost?

What MI costs are you likely to face? For conventional mortgages, MI costs depend on your credit rating, down payment size, and type of loan you choose. For government loans, your credit score does not affect mortgage insurance premiums.

Here’s the advice that Peter Miller gives on how to pay less….

How to pay less for mortgage insurance

Mortgage insurance can be a big cost. For example, if you buy a home for $250,000 with 3.5 percent down, and get FHA financing, the up-front MIP will be $4,222. You’ll also pay annual MIP of $171 per month. After five years, you will have spent $14,482 ($171 x 60 plus $4,222).

Here are several strategies to reduce or eliminate mortgage insurance costs.

Go piggyback

Instead of getting one mortgage, get two. Try a first mortgage equal to 80 percent of the purchase price and a second mortgage for 5, 10 or 15 percent of the balance. You can then buy with no mortgage insurance. Here’s how that might work, assuming that you have a 700 FICO score, 5 percent down, and buy a traditional single-family home for $250,000:

  • First mortgage principal and interest, assuming a 4.5 percent interest rate: $1,013.
  • Second mortgage principal and interest, assuming a 7 percent interest rate: $249
  • Total payment: $1,263

A comparable 95 percent loan with 25 percent coverage looks like this:

  • First mortgage principal and interest at 4.5 percent: $1,203
  • Mortgage insurance: $108
  • Total payment: $1,311

In this case, the difference is about $50 a month.

Refinance

If the value of your property has grown, you may be able to refinance to a loan without MI, instead of without waiting until your balance is less than 80 percent. When refinancing, you want to try for a double MI whammy — a new loan with both a lower rate and no MI requirement. Speak with a loan officer for details; the monthly savings might be significant.

Look for refundable premiums

If you expect to be a short-term owner, look for mortgage insurance programs with refundable premiums. With the FHA, for example, you can get a partial refund if you pay off the loan within three years. And private mortgage insurers also offer refundable premiums. However, their upfront costs may be higher.

Reduce your risk profile

With conventional financing, you can significantly reduce what you pay for mortgage insurance by being a less-risky borrower.

  • Improve your credit score. Even a one-point increase can save you money if it puts you into a better tier
  • Make a larger down payment. Going from 3 percent to 5 percent can save you money, depending on the program
  • Choose a fixed loan over an ARM
  • Choose a loan with a term of 20 years or fewer

Cancellation

Conventional loan guidelines allow borrowers to request cancellation of their MI once their loan falls to 80 percent of the value of the home when you took out your mortgage. You must normally be in good standing with your lender to drop MI this way.

With FHA and USDA mortgage insurance, coverage continues for the life of the loan. For VA-backed financing, there is no monthly charge.

Automatic termination

Alternatively, mortgage insurance for conforming loans “must automatically terminate PMI on the date when your principal balance is scheduled to reach 78 percent of the original value of your home. For your PMI to be canceled on that date, you need to be current on your payments on the anticipated termination date. Otherwise, PMI will not be terminated until shortly after your payments are brought up to date.”

In Conclusion

Do reach out to me to discuss your down payment and mortgage insurance options, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

Before Making a 20% Mortgage Down Payment, Do Read This

“How much should I put down on a house?”

It’s a question that I hear all the time from would-be home buyers— especially first-timer purchasers.

And, the answer is:  “it depends,” as it really will vary by buyer.

I’d highly recommend that you check out Dan Green’s article at The Mortgage Reports for more.

Per Mr. Green: “If you’re a home buyer with a good deal of cash saved up in the bank, for example, but you have relatively low annual income, making the biggest down payment possible can be sensible. This is because, with a large down payment, your loan size shrinks, reducing the size of your monthly payment.”

Or, perhaps your situation is reversed.

“Maybe you may have a good household income but very little saved in the bank. In this instance, it may be best to use a low- or no-down-payment loan, while planning to cancel your mortgage insurance at some point in the future.”

Dan continues: “One thing is true for everyone, though — you shouldn’t think it’s “conservative” to make a large down payment on a home. Similarly, you shouldn’t think it’s “risky” to make a small down payment. The opposite is actually true.”

“About the riskiest thing you can do when you’re buying a new home is to make the largest down payment you can. It’s conservative to borrow more, and we’ll talk about it below.”

For today’s most widely-used purchase mortgage programs, down payment minimum requirements are:

Remember, though, that these requirements are just the minimum. As a mortgage borrower, it’s your right to put down as much on a home as you like and, in some cases, it can make sense to put down more.

Larger Down Payments Actually Increase Risk

Green continues: “As a homeowner, it’s likely that your home will be the largest balance sheet asset. Your home may be worth more than all of your other investments combined, even.

In this way, your home is both a shelter and an investment and should be treated as such. And, once we view our home as an investment, it can guide the decisions we make about our money.

The riskiest decision we can make when purchasing a new home?

Making too big of a down payment.”

The Higher The Down Payment, The Lower Your Rate of Return

The first reason why conservative investors should monitor their down payment size is that the down payment will limit your home’s return on investment.

Consider a home which appreciates at the national average of near 5 percent.

Today, your home is worth $400,000. In a year, it’s worth $420,000. Regardless of your down payment, the home is worth twenty-thousand dollars more.

That down payment affected your rate of return.

  • With 20% down on the home — $80,000 –your rate of return is 25%
  • With 3% down on the home — $12,000 — your rate of return is 167%

That’s a huge difference. Please do reach out to me for more information so we can figure out the best down payment strategy for you!

New Investor Product – Fix and Flip

Researchers have found that house flippers renovated more than 200,000 homes in 2017, with an average profit of nearly $70,000 per property. That’s a lot of houses—and a lot of money.

Despite the popularity of house flipping, the biggest barrier to entry and success in this space is cash. Without enough money, you can’t purchase the home, pay for renovations, or find a buyer for the property when the time comes to sell.

Fix and flip loans are used by short-term real estate investors to purchase and renovate a property before flipping it for a profit or refinancing it after rehab. This type of financing for flipping houses offers investors fast closings for properties in any condition.

Finance of America has a fantastic set of offerings in this category…..

Not sure whether you need the Fix & Flip Single Loan or the Fix & Flip Exposure Limit?

  • The Fix & Flip Single Loan is designed for investors who need funding to flip a single investment property.
  • The Fix & Flip Exposure Limit is a line of credit offered to experienced investors who plan to acquire and/or renovate multiple properties.
  • All Fix & Flip Exposure Limits allow investors to close quickly.
  • Both Fix & Flip Single Loan and Fix & Flip Exposure Limit offer the option of rehab funding, if needed.

Our commercial offerings are quite unique. These products are in-house from origination to funding. Controlling the financing from origination to funding allows our investors to reliably plan the timing for their projects. Timing is always important in the real estate market, especially in construction and rehab.

For experienced investors we establish an exposure limit and for new investors we start our first project together with a single mortgage. Contact me for more details.


2019 Interest Rate and Housing Forecast – Sales and Appreciation

Now that 2019 is here, let’s take a look at what we can expect regarding interest rates and the housing market. 

Experts are predicting some interesting shifts moving into 2019, including continued home appreciation (although at a slower rate) and slight interest rate increases.

Let’s take a look at the key components that drive the real estate market….

2019 Geopolitical/Finance Dynamics

One important way to understand what lies ahead has to do with taking a look at world events and the other issues that drive the economy.  Here are a few things that will impact the market in 2019:

  • Trade issues with China
  • Possible economic slowdown, although early 2019 results have been positive
  • Late 2018 Stock Market pullback – Early 2019 Rally
  • The Federal Reserve – 2 planned hikes in 2019
  • Rates set to rise in year ahead – How much and what will the impact be?
  • Keeping an eye on inflation…watch oil prices and wage pressures
  • Continued stock market volatility?

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs four times in 2018, ignoring a stock-market selloff and defying pressure from President Trump, while dialing back projections for interest rates and economic growth in 2019.

By trimming the number of rate hikes they foresee in 2019, to two from three, policymakers signaled they may soon pause their monetary tightening campaign. Officials had a median projection of one move in 2020.

The Federal Open Market Committee “will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook,” the statement said.

Here are some things to watch in 2019:

  • Every meeting will have a press conference, making every meeting a live meeting, increasing speculation and volatility.
  • Federal Reserve “Dot Plot” shows 2 hikes in 2019
  • Inflation could rise with higher oil prices and wage pressures
  • Fed scheduled to reduce their balance sheet of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bonds by $50B per month

Prediction: Fed will hike 1 time to get the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) to 2.75%, although they would love to get the federal funds rate to 3% – and they will stay course on balance sheet reduction.

The pause in Fed rate hikes acts as important catalyst to turn the tide in favor of Stocks. 

Interest Rates

It’s not very often that major players across an industry agree, but on this point, almost everyone does.  Nearly all industry experts predict the 30-year mortgage will average above 5% for 2019.

Five percent used to be considered an ultra-low rate. But after years of rates in the 3s and 4s, it seems pretty steep.  Still, affordable home payments won’t be hard to find, even as we adjust to the new normal.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts 30-year fixed interest mortgage rates to average around 5.3 percent in 2019.

“The potential buyer who’s thinking if now is the right time to buy needs to do the math and determine what the impact of potential rising rates would be on their payment,” said Paul Bishop, the NAR’s VP of Research.

Here are some of the key factors for 2019:

  • Inflation is main driver of rates, and inflation should tick higher with oil prices rebounding and wages increasing.  Many states increasing minimum wages.
  • Fed will continue to allow $50B to roll off balance sheet and is no longer buying
  • US Government borrowing more in 2019, which will add supply to the market that will need to be absorbed
  • More supply and less demand = higher rates
  • Stock market increases will most likely hurt rates

Prediction: The 10-year Treasury Note will trade between 2.75% and 3.25% for most of the year.  High point for 10-year is estimated at 3.5%. Mortgage rates will fluctuate in the low-mid 5% range

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rates in the 5% to 5.5% range for most of the year

Housing

Most experts predict the fevered bidding wars and snap home-buying decisions won’t be as big of a factor in most markets. Slower and steadier will characterize next year’s housing market.

That follows a 2018 that started off hot but softened into the fall as buyers – put off by high prices and few choices – sat out rather than paid up.

Affordability issues will remain a top concern going into 2019, exacerbated by rising mortgage rates. But some of 2018’s more intractable issues will begin to loosen up. The volume of for-sale homes is expected to rise and diversify, while the number of buyers is forecast to shrink.

Below are a few of the factors to watch in 2019:

  • Negative media
  • Rocky beginning of the year
  • Stocks begin to stabilize positively
  • Spring market rebound
  • Demographics still favorable – More demand than supply

Prediction: 3.5% – 4% year-over year. Appreciation still creates significant wealth – and the media will get this wrong.

Sales and appreciation moderate slightly, but housing remains healthy, especially after Q1 for much of the US

Finally, more homes to choose from

One of the biggest complaints among buyers in the last several years is that there weren’t enough homes for sale. In fact, the supply of houses hit historic lows in the winter of 2017 and has yet to rebound substantially. That fueled bidding wars, price increases and frustration.

The supply crunch is expected to ease some in 2019 with inventory rising 10 percent to 15 percent, according to many experts. But the increase will be skewed toward the mid-to-high end of the market – houses priced $250,000 and higher – especially when it comes to newly built houses, said Danielle Hale, chief economist of realtor.com.

That’s good news for move-up buyers, but not so much for the first-time millennial buyer. “There’s still a mismatch on the entry-level side,” she said.

If you have more questions about 2019 – and are thinking of purchasing, don’t hesitate to reach out to me, as it would be my pleasure to help!

Consumers Underestimate How Quickly Home Values Rise

You might find this hard to believe, but home prices are rising twice as fast as consumers think they are.  Lack of awareness could be costing home buyers thousands each year they delay their purchase.

Source: Consumers Underestimate How Quickly Home Values Rise

According to Fannie Mae’s monthly National Housing Survey, 41% of surveyed consumers think it would be “difficult” to get a mortgage approved today with some believing that their credit is too poor.  Others think they lack sufficient home equity.  Interestingly, that data shows that these concerns are really unfounded!

Per The Mortgage Reports Newsletter, “today’s market gives the opportunity to buy homes — first-time home buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors, too.”

As an example, one year ago, consumers told Fannie Mae that home prices would rise 2.6% over the next twelve months.  Values gained more than twice that, as it happened.

Rising home values are positive returns on investments

In a modest inflationary environment, increases in home prices can be a good thing.  If the price of the home is rising, the homeowner is also increasing their purchasing power, as well as their return on investment.

Historically, if investments are rising and inflation is tempered, the economy is thought to be moving along at a productive and profitable pace.  Everybody has heard the phrase “a rising tide lifts all boats” – and that data shows that’s  where we are most likely headed.   So while the existing homeowners are increasing their purchasing power, the buyers who want to enter the market are also gaining financial strength.  It really is a double whammy for buyers and sellers!

Buyer Education of the Current Situation is Key

There is real opportunity for potential home buyers out there – and Realtors and lenders need to help folks understand the implications of underestimating the rise of housing prices.  Effectively communicating the value of the market is crucial to supporting the needs of potential buyers and sellers.

If done well, there should be plenty of support for the owners looking to upgrade and the new buyers wanting to enter the market for the first time.  Hence, a rising market like this can create opportunities for the entire real estate community, including the new owners.

Product Knowledge is Crucial

Since the election, rates have increased – but have started to moderate over the last few months.  Make sure you have a solid relationship with a lender that has command of all the products to help figure out the best option for you!

Why Home Ownership Matters – A 2019 Resolution

Is a home purchase on your 2019 “to do” list?

If so, now is a great time to do it, as market conditions are quite good!

Homeownership has traditionally been an important way to build wealth and the financial returns on homeownership have been more far more beneficial than renting for most homeowners.

Your home is likely the biggest investment you will make in your life, which brings with it some fear and anxiety.  Don’t let it!  While home ownership may seem a bit scary, buying your home should be an exciting time.

Enjoy the process and engage the right people.

“Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”

Mark Twain

Why Home Ownership is Important

According to a Trulia report, “buying is cheaper than renting in 100 of the largest metro areas by an average of 37.7%.” 

That may have some thinking about buying a home instead of signing another lease extension, but does that make sense from a financial perspective?

In the report, Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia’s Chief Economist explains:

“Owning a home is one of the most common ways households build long-term wealth, as it acts like a forced savings account. Instead of paying your landlord, you can pay yourself in the long run through paying down a mortgage on a house.”

The report listed five reasons why owning a home makes financial sense:

  1. Mortgage payments can be fixed while rents go up.
  2. Equity in your home can be a financial resource later.
  3. You can build wealth without paying capital gains.
  4. A mortgage can act as a forced savings account.
  5. Overall, homeowners can enjoy greater wealth growth than renters.

More Statistics

  • 87% of people said owning a home is part of their American dream
  • A typical homeowner’s net worth was $195,400 while a renter’s was $5,400
  • Academic studies have shown that homeowners are healthier. This result arises from a better sense of self-control and self-worth among homeowners versus renters
  • Owning a home is good for the economy. With each home sale there are expenditures related to lawn care, home remodeling, new furniture, mortgage origination, moving, and an inducement to build new homes

Infographic courtesy of Trinity Homes

Other Benefits

Homeownership benefits the homeowner’s family and their surrounding community. This includes improved health and school performance for children, increased civic engagement and volunteering, reduced crime, and higher lifetime wealth.

When taking a look at the lessons learned from the last housing crisis, the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Housing Commission noted that homeownership can “produce powerful economic, social, and civic benefits that serve the individual homeowner, the larger community, and the nation.”

The reason is fairly simple: economics. When someone owns an asset, they are more likely to engage in behavior that ensures its future value. You can find out more here from US News and World Reports….

Unlike stocks and bonds, a home’s value is determined by both the physical quality of the structure as well as the general character of its neighborhood.

That means homeowners are more likely to spend their limited time and resources engaged in improving their neighborhood, if for no other reason than to protect the value of their investment.

Bottom Line

Before you sign another lease, perhaps you should sit with a mortgage professional and real estate agent in your area to better understand all your options.

Let 2019 be the year you make the move into your own home!

Refinance 101 – Now Is The Time To Estimate Your Monthly Savings

Featured Image: Jake Rustenhoven (gotcredit.com), Flickr

Tapping into home equity with a mortgage refinance is becoming very popular for many borrowers.

Many borrowers can now save hundreds, possibly thousands on their overall monthly payments by consolidating debt inside of a new mortgage.

As housing values across the country have appreciated nearly 35% over the last 5 years, homeowners now have access to a much larger source of equity.

With current mortgage rates still historically low and home equity on the rise, it’s a perfect time to refinance your mortgage to save not only on your overall monthly payments, but your overall interest costs as well – and take best advantage of today’s tax implications.

Improve Your Debt Profile

Using a refinance to reduce or consolidate other debt like credit cards, student loans, home-equity lines, and car payments is a great reason for a cash-out refinance.

We can look at the weighted average interest rate on a borrower’s credit cards and other liabilities to determine whether moving the debt to a mortgage will get them a lower rate.  Some borrowers are saving thousands per month by consolidating their debt through their mortgage.

An Example

Let’s assume that you purchased your home 6 years ago (or longer) for $270,000 and you currently have a little less than $200,000 remaining on your existing mortgage.

Well, that home today may well be worth in excess of $350,000!

Even if you’ve refinanced since and have an interest rate in the 4% range, if you have any other sources of debt, a refinance will most likely result in a large monthly savings.

Debt List

Let’s assume you have a debt list that looks something like this – or a combination of similar liabilities:

A few credit cards, a car payment, and a student loan (or even a home-equity line of credit) can easily total nearly $50,000 overall and over $1,000 per month.  Many of the customers that work with me are in situations very similar to the one listed above.

New Payment and Monthly Savings

So, when you combine all of your liabilities into the mortgage, here’s what your new overall payment looks like:

Note that the monthly savings is nearly $900 per month!!

New Loan

Here’s what a new refinanced loan might look like:

Your loan amount has increased by about $50,000 – and your mortgage interest rate has also increase by over 1.25%. However, your OVERALL interest rate of all debt will most likely be similar to where you are today (assuming credit card debt is more like 15% or more). Also, you will only have one payment to manage – versus balancing multiple payments.

Better Options

Now, let’s do a little more math…

Let’s say you take that $900 in savings every month and apply it to the new mortgage:

That’s right – you would save $55,000 over the life of the loan and reduce your number of payments by 213! You would be turning your 30-year mortgage into a 12.25 year version.

The numbers are staggering.  One other thing to do would be to check with your CPA or financial advisor, as the interest on the new loan would most likely be tax deductible, whereas any home equity lines and credit card interest are generally not tax deductible.

Please do reach out to me right away and we can take a look at your current scenario to see if a refinance might be a good option for you, as it would be my privilege to help!

Home Pricing Data Explained: Continued Appreciation Expected

Many buyers ask me about home prices, interest rates, and if now is a good time to buy.

Some are disappointed that they didn’t make a move 18 months ago and have decided to “wait and see” in hopes that prices and interest rates will actually go down.

The Forecast Data

The graphic shown above is very, very important for current and would-be homeowners, as well as those in the real-estate profession in general.

Home prices are continuing their solid rates of appreciation – and most experts believe they will keep climbing into 2019, although not as rapidly.

The graph above shows that home prices escalated 5.6% year-over-year – and that the CoreLogic forecast for 2019 is that housing will continue to appreciate at a 4.7% clip.

It’s really important to understand that home prices are in no way projected to go down.  They are just increasing at a slower rate than over the last 2 years.

Many potential buyers are sitting on the fence, waiting to see if the market has “topped-out”, but as you can see, this is not the case.

You can find out more about why there is no bubble and why 2018 looks nothing like 2007 here…

The CoreLogic/Case-Shiller indexes help securities investors, mortgage banks, servicing operations, and government agencies make property valuations, assess and manage risk, mitigate losses, and control appraisal quality.

In essence, these guys are the best in the business in real-estate pricing data and forecasting.  Interestingly, their forecasts have actually been quite conservative – they’ve been on the low side when predicting appreciation over the last few years.

Yes, forecasted growth will most likely slow some, but not by much…and remember, this shows that appreciation is increasing at a slower rate, not a loss in value.

Interest Rates

Secondly, based on the latest economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve, there’s very good reason to believe that interest rates will continue their ascent.  You can find out more about that here….

Now is not the time to sit on the sidelines if you are looking to purchase residential real estate.  If you wait another 18 months, I’m sure you will be looking back wondering why you didn’t act in 2018.

If you would like to discuss this more in detail, please do reach out to me, as it would be my pleasure to help!

2018 Is Not 2007 All Over Again (and it’s not even close)

I hear a lot of sentiment from buyers and agents that the current housing market is the same as 2007.

In essence, are we on the verge of another financial crash?

Is 2018 just 2007 all over again? Are we looking at a new real estate bubble?

Well, I can’t tell you if we are going to have another housing correction, but I can tell you that if we do, it will not be because of the same market dynamics as 2007.

As a matter of fact, many believe now is a very good time to purchase residential real estate because of today’s economic environment.

The mortgage market and collateralization of homes is simply different today then it was back then.

I’d invite you to check out a few resources to find out more – Mike Nelson at Efficient Lending and The Motley Fool

A Real Estate Bubble?

A bubble is simply a sudden escalation in the price of an asset class, such as housing, due to increased demand or speculation.

Per The Motley Fool…“In real estate, bubbles take place in the housing market, commercial property, or, simply, land, and all have been a popular target for speculators over U.S. history since there’s a constant need for real estate and housing, banks are generally†willing to lend money for real estate and housing purchases, and its high value can allow for large profits.”

Though housing prices are on the rise today and are outpacing wage growth and inflation, it’s nothing like the housing bubble of the 2000’s as the economy is continuing to expand and stocks are growing at an even faster pace.

In reality, the last six years have not seen the kind of explosive rise in home prices that impacted cities like Las Vegas and Miami a decade ago.

In Las Vegas, for example, home prices jumped 130% from 2000 to 2006, surging a whopping 46% in 2004 alone. Meanwhile, in Miami, home prices skyrocketed 165% from 2000 to 2006, but especially heated up the last two years of that time frame rising 62%.

Even in the hottest real estate markets today like San Francisco and Seattle, prices have not accelerated like this. That’s a sign that the market is not falling victim to the type of euphoria and speculation that causes asset prices to skyrocket.

Mortgage Rates and Their Impact

There may be no more impact factor in influencing home prices than interest rates, as low interest rates encourage homebuying as the majority of homebuyers use a mortgage to a buy a new home. The lower the mortgage rate, the less the actual cost of their monthly payment would be, effectively making the home cheaper to buy for them.

According to most analysts, mortgage rates will likely cool off the housing market and slow the increase in housing prices down.

During the housing bubble of a decade ago, mortgage rates were lower than average, hovering around 6%, but still above today’s lows. In other words, low mortgage rates can encourage a bubble-like atmosphere, but it is just one of many factors that come into play.

Some experts believe that rising mortgage rates have encouraged home buying, as homebuyers want to lock in low rates while they still can. If that proves to be the case, higher mortgage rates will eventually cool off the housing market.

Therefore, real estate prices are more likely to go up when rates are low or falling, while rising rates are likely to tighten the market or cool off home purchasing, assuming all other things remain equal.

To Buy or Not To Buy

It’s almost impossible to say when the real estate market will peak, and homebuyers and investors are best off monitoring the local economic climate in their areas.

Some speculation is a normal part of the real estate market, but the rampant home-flipping we saw during the housing bubble of the 2000’s was a clear sign of something not right as was the expansion in subprime lending.

Home prices will pull back at some point just as the economy will eventually slow.

However, many of the factors that led to the last bubble such as lax lending standards, excess supply, and rampant home flipping, seem to be mostly absent from today’s real estate market.

Sources: Mike Nelson at Efficient Lending and The Motley Fool

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