The Lending Coach

Coaching and teaching - many through the mortgage process and others on the field

Forecast Shows That 2020 Will Be a Big Year for 1st Time Buyers

Next year should be a big one for first-time homebuyers.

I’m linking to an article by Aly J. Yale at The Mortgage Reports that shows that the 1st time buyer market is getting bigger.

According to new data, up to 9.2 million first-time buyers will hit the market between 2020 and 2022.

A New Frontier for First Timers

Says Yale, “according to a new analysis from credit bureau TransUnion, anywhere from 8.3 million to 9.2 million first-time homebuyers will enter the housing market between 2020 and 2022.

That’s up from just 6.67 million between 2013 to 2015 and 7.64 million between 2016 to 2018.”

Joe Mellman, senior vice president at TransUnion, the next couple of years should mark a turn-around for homebuyers.

“While we’ve recently seen a boom in refi activity, actual homeownership rates are down,” he said. “Challenges have included high home prices, sluggish wage growth, and limited housing inventory, but we may be starting to see daylight as slowing home price appreciation, low unemployment, increased wage growth, and low interest rates are helping affordability. As a result, we are optimistic that first-time homebuyers will contribute more to home ownership than at any time since the start of the Great Recession.”

Survey Results

TransUnion also surveyed potential first-time homebuyers on the perceived challenges that they face.

Interestingly, their results showed that most people are interested in buying a house for more privacy or the opportunity to build wealth.

Only about a quarter said they want to buy a home due to getting married or having children.

Per Yale’s article, “more than a third said they want a more steady job before buying a house. Another third said home prices are just too high.” 

Finally, the survey also found that many first-time buyers aren’t aware of their financing options.

“Many of our potential first-time homebuyer respondents don’t seem to be aware of the wide variety of financing options available to them,” Mellman said. “It suggests there’s a large opportunity for lenders to proactively identify consumers who are interested in becoming first-time homebuyers and then educating them on options they may not be aware of.”

Where to go for help

It would be my pleasure to help any first time buyers through the home buying process. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me for more information or to schedule a consultation.

Pitchers Are Made in the Off-Season

When planning an off-season baseball conditioning workout for pitchers, think about the nature of the work.

A pitcher completes a very explosive movement that lasts about 3 seconds and then rests for 20 seconds. The goals for pitcher conditioning should be to mimic the physical stresses of competition and train the same energy system.

Interestingly, the right kind of physical conditioning during the off-season can be as vital to a baseball pitcher as working on throwing mechanics.

I’m linking to two interesting articles regarding the best plans for pitchers in the off-season.  One by Steven Ellis at BaseballPitchingTips.com, the other by Phil Wallin at Stack.com.  You will notice that both are similar in scope.

Some of the similarities:

The Design of the Program

Overall, a baseball pitcher’s workouts are designed to produce desired training effects that include:

  •  increasing pitching velocity
  •  improving velocity endurance or “late-inning stamina”
  •  reducing the risk of injury

Do sprint work, not distance work

As Phil Wallin says, “pitching a baseball places an explosive, intense demand on your central nervous system. Thus, you need to train in a similar manner. The perfect type of training stimulus for this is sprints—not long distance endurance running, which over time teaches your body to become slow”

Focus on the Core

Per Steven Ellis, “rather, engaging the core for pitching training involves doing anti-rotation exercises in order to strengthen the midsection. Cable anti-rotation presses, medicine ball throws and planks should be used for a pitcher’s core work.”

Do Push-Ups, not Bench Press Work

According to Wallin, “push-Ups are a great closed-chain exercise. To complete the entire movement, your entire body must remain stable. Barbell Bench Presses lock the shoulders in a susceptible position. This is a good enough reason to leave them out of your training program. Push-Ups are a much safer option for working these joints and muscles.”

Other Programs – ZB Velcoity by Jordan Zimmerman

Similarly, one of the best programs available in the greater Phoenix area is Jordan Zimmerman’s ZB Velocity Training – I’ve written extensively on Jordan’s “Velo” program and its benefits…you can find out more about that here.

I’d invite you to dig into the articles and links posted above…as I’m sure it will help you gain strength, stamina, and prevent some injuries!

Buying a Home Is the Most Affordable It’s Been in Almost 3 Years

Home prices have slowed a bit in some areas, but they continue to climb in the majority of markets in the U.S.  Inventory is stubbornly low in many parts of the country, but even with these factors, now is actually a good time to purchase.

Believe it or not, research shows that housing has actually become more affordable this year, despite home appreciation and tight inventory. Affordable homes are possible thanks to lower mortgage rates and greater purchasing power.

“Affordability is about the best it can be compared to what it is likely to be over the next few years. So, in that sense, it’s a good time to buy right now if you have the financial means.” –Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

However, this positive development may not last for too much longer. That’s why it pays to hunt for homes and mortgage rates now, as waiting could prove expensive.

I’m linking to an article from Erik Martin at The Mortgage Reports – you can find the entire piece here…

What The Numbers Show

Martin highlights a Black Knight study (found here) that shows “housing affordability hit nearly a three-year high in September.” Other findings from the report include:

  • The drop in mortgage rates since November has been enough to amp up buying power by $46,000 while keeping monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments the same
  • The monthly P&I needed to buy an average-priced home is $1,122. That’s down about $124 a month from November 2018, when interest rates were near 5%
  • Monthly P&I payments now require only 20.7% of the national median income. That marks the second-lowest national payment-to-income ratio in 20 months

Martin writes “that last point may be the most important. For the average home buyer, month-to-month housing costs are lower than they’ve been at almost any point in the last three years.”

Why Is Housing More Affordable Now?

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, states that lower mortgage rates right now are helping to offset higher home prices.

“Assuming you put down 20% on a median-priced home, your monthly mortgage payment would be $1,070 at this time last year. That’s assuming a 4.7% mortgage rate at that time,” he says.

Today, your monthly payment on that same home could be down to $990 — $80 less — even though you would have paid more for the home thanks to rising real estate prices.

Will This Trend Continue?

Yun, and many other economists, believe that mortgage rates will likely remain attractive through 2020.

“But then they will rise, which will knock off many buyers from the pool of eligible purchasers,” predicts Yun. 

Should You Act Now?

Please do reach out to me so we can analyze your current situation to see if a home purchase might be in your best interest.  Based on the data, now is really the time to get started…and it would be my pleasure to help you.

New and improved conforming loan limits for 2020!

The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced last week that it is raising the conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to more than $510,000.

In most of the U.S., the 2020 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will be $510,400, an increase from $484,350 in 2019.

What this means is that many buyers who were unable to qualify for $500,000 mortgages due to “jumbo loan” restrictions can now re-visit an application!

Data from FHFA shows that home prices increased by 5.38% on average between the third quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2019. So, the baseline maximum conforming loan limit in 2020 will increase by the same percentage.

As a result of generally rising home values, the increase in the baseline loan limit, and the increase in the ceiling loan limit, the maximum conforming loan limit will be higher in 2020 in all but 43 counties or county equivalents in the U.S.

Find out more from Housingwire here…

Conforming Loans – what are they?

A conforming loan gets its name because it meets or “conforms” to specific guidelines set by the two largest government-controlled loan entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Loans that are greater than $510,400 in general are considered “jumbo” mortgages and are not controlled by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Recent History

This marks the fourth straight year that the FHFA has increased the conforming loan limits after not increasing them for an entire decade from 2006 to 2016.

In 2016, the FHFA increased the Fannie and Freddie conforming loan limit for the first time in 10 years, and since then, the loan limit has gone up by $93,400.

Back in 2016, the FHFA increased the conforming loan limits from $417,000 to $424,100. Then, the next year, the FHFA raised the loan limits from $424,100 to $453,100 for 2018. And in 2018, the FHFA increased the loan limit from $453,100 to $484,350 for 2019.

Median home values generally increased in high-cost areas in 2019, driving up the maximum loan limits in many areas. The new ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties in most high-cost areas will be $765,600 — or 150% of $510,400.

Find out More

Please do reach out to me and find out what the conforming loan limit is for your neighborhood!

Baseball Coaching Drills for Youth Teams

I’ve been coaching youth/club baseball with my friends Matt Palmer, Kevin Bacchus, Brian Beltramo, and Bret Prinz for many, many years.  We’ve had a blast together…and we have been given the opportunity to coach some fine players.

Matt and I were talking the other day, looking back at some of the great times and great teams we’ve been fortunate enough to coach.  We reminisced about how our practice plans were extremely simple – and that the skills we were instilling helped our players win more than a few ballgames.

Not to say that the practices were unscripted or easy (they were neither) – but we relied on a handful of drills to help develop proper fundamentals and simulate game situations.

Interestingly enough, in a little under 2 hours a few times a week, we essentially did the same, relatively simple team drills with all of our players. 

We would take the last 45 minutes or so for batting practice and bullpens…so that left us 75 minutes for all of our defensive related drills.

We did these drills EVERY practice.  Here are our 4 favorites:

Bare Handed Ground Balls

We would line the players up in either one or two lines and roll them ground ball after ground ball.  Our focus was to have the players not rely on their gloves, but have soft hands, and field the ball out in front of them in a proper fielding position.

Then they would consciously watch the ball all the way into their hands, then gather the ball with their eyes still on it, and step-and-throw.

Triangle Drill

We would put one third of the kids at shortstop, a third at first, and a third behind the plate.  The coach hits a ground ball to the shortstop, who fields and throws to first, and the first basemen throws to the catcher. 

Each player then follows his throw to the next position (short to first, first to catcher, catcher to short). 

Not only are we working on fielding, throwing, and catching – we are working on team play and endurance.  Don’t underestimate the cardiovascular workout with this one!

4-Corners Drill

We would place players at all 4 bases and throw the ball around the horn – home to first, then to second, next to third, and finally to home for starters. 

We would then switch directions…and the players would switch positions on the field so everyone would have a chance to play all positions.

Sometimes they would be force plays, other times, we would have them catch-and-tag.

Relay Drill

We put the players in 2 or 3 groups (depending on the number of players) – and space them out about 60 feet apart in groups, essentially two or three long lines of players from foul-pole to foul-pole.  The ball would start at one end and be thrown from player to player until it reached the other end.

We worked on game simulated relays in this fashion, focusing on body positioning and feet movement.

At the end, we would hold a competition or “race” to see which team could perform the task the quickest and most effectively.  If a team drops the ball, they pick it up and keep going. 

As you can imagine, the most proficient team with the fewest or no drops would always win, regardless of the speed of the transition from one player to the next.

I can’t stress more strongly the need for these types of drills, especially with younger players.  Our teams were fundamentally strong, for the most part, and they were able to execute team plays quite effectively…even at age 10.

If you’d like to find out more about practice planning for young players, do feel free to reach out, as I’d be happy to share more.

Quick Credit Score Improvement Tips

Let’s talk credit, as it’s so important. Your FICO scores can determine whether you are able to purchase that home or not, and save you a good deal of money on the rate you’re going to pay if your scores are good.

Of course, you want to make your payments on time, but how can you actually improve your credit score in a relatively short period of time? What can you do?

Here are a few things that you might be able to do relatively quickly and improve your scores…

Lower The Balances

It’s a good idea to keep the balance you owe on any of those accounts below 30% of the credit line. If you have a credit card with $1000 limit on it, keep your balance to $300 or less.

Increase The Trade Line

So, what if your balance is higher than that and you can’t bring it down? Well, go to that credit card issuer and ask them if they’re willing to give you a higher limit. By bringing the limit up, the amount you owe becomes a smaller percentage of your limit. That will help your score.

Don’t Close Accounts

One key thing to remember, don’t close off any credit lines that you have from the past. That’s good history that you’ve built up. You want to keep that good history. It’s like getting straight A’s in high school and not wanting to show the report card. Keeping good history will help your credit score. 

Collection Accounts

Finally, think about some of those collection accounts – only if they’ve popped up. If the seven-year reporting period is up (starting from when you first went delinquent with the original debt), dispute the debt from your credit report. Any proof you have regarding the first date of delinquency will strengthen your dispute.

When All Else Fails 

If you’re not able to get the collection account removed from your credit report, pay it anyway. A paid collection is better than an unpaid one and shows future lenders that you’ve taken care of your financial responsibilities. Once you’ve paid the collection, just wait out the credit reporting time limit and the account will fall off your credit report.

If you have more questions about your credit and how it impacts your ability to finance a home, please do reach out to me, as it would be my pleasure to help!

The Cost of Waiting to Purchase a Home and Trying to Time the Market

If you’re shopping for a home today, you know it can be hard work. You might not find something right away and it’s easy to become frustrated and fatigued.

Sometimes buyers get discouraged and say, “Let me take off a few months, maybe I’ll come back 6 months later.”

Some, on the other hand, think that the market might weaken shortly or that interest rates will fall even further…and are trying to essentially “time the market” Is that the right strategy?

The Cost of Waiting

Here’s the potential problem with that thinking…while you might want to take time off and away from your search, the market isn’t taking time off!

The cost of waiting to buy is defined as the additional funds it would take to buy a home if prices & interest rates were to increase over a period of time.

The market is quite good in terms of appreciation right now in California and Arizona. The forecasted growth in value is 2.4% in just the next 6 months; let’s quantify that.

The Numbers

A home worth $300,000 today would be worth $7,300 more in 6 months. Additionally, if you were planning on putting the same percent down, you would have to borrow more because the home is more expensive.

What about interest rates? Rates today are at very attractive levels, so does it make sense to wait for rates to go down further…and what if they don’t?

No, the monthly savings with a lower rate are nice but are dwarfed by the missed appreciation and amortization, and it would take many, many years to recoup what you would have lost.

One other thing to consider…if rates drop significantly after your purchase, you can always refinance in the future to take advantage of that lower rate.

Today’s Data

Here’s the data from FHFA – see how the forecast is for nearly 5% appreciation in the year ahead. The longer you wait, the more you miss out on appreciation and the more expensive you new purchase will be.

Stick with it, keep shopping, and you will find something. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me with questions, as it would be my pleasure to help!

Know Your Down Payment Options: From 0% to 20%+

Coming up with enough cash for a down payment when buying a house is the single biggest roadblock for many hopeful home buyers.

But how much do buyers really need?

What is a down payment?

In real estate, a down payment is the amount of cash you put towards the purchase of home.

It is deducted from the total amount of your mortgage and represents the beginning equity — your ownership stake — in a house and property.

Down Payment Options

Many borrowers still believe that 20% is the minimum…and that’s just not the case.  There are options from 0% to 20%+ that can work for many would-be buyers.

For today’s most widely-used purchase mortgage programs, down payment minimum requirements are:

  • FHA Loan: 3.5% down payment minimum
  • VA Loan: No down payment required
  • HomeReady/Home Possible Conventional Loan (with PMI): 3%
  • Conventional Loan (with PMI): 5%
  • Conventional Loan (without PMI): 20% minimum
  • USDA Loan: No Down Payment required
  • Jumbo Loan: 10% down

PMI is “private mortgage insurance…and you can find out more about that here…

Remember, though, that these requirements are just the minimum. As a mortgage borrower, it’s your right to put down as much on a home as you like and, in some cases, it can make sense to put down more.

Benefits of a larger down payment

Conventional loans without mortgage insurance require a 20% down payment. That’s $60,000 on a $300,000 home, for example. There are a number of benefits to bringing in 20%:

  • No mortgage insurance
  • Lower interest rate, in most cases
  • More equity in your home
  • A lower monthly payment

As a reminder, the down payment is not the only upfront money you have to deal with. There are loan closing costs (you can find out more about those here…) and earnest money to consider as well. Before the dramatic music returns, let’s explore some lower down payment options.

Benefits of a smaller down payment

From Dan Green at The Mortgage Reports:

“A large down payment helps you afford more house with the same payment. In the example below, the buyer wants to spend no more than $1,000 a month for principal, interest, and mortgage insurance (when required).

Here’s how much house this home buyer can purchase at a 4 percent mortgage rate. The home price varies with the amount the buyer puts down.”

Even though a large down payment can help you afford more, by no means should home buyers use their last dollar to stretch their down payment level.

A down payment will lower your rate of return

“The first reason why conservative investors should monitor their down payment size is that the down payment will limit your home’s return on investment.

Consider a home which appreciates at the national average of near 5 percent.

Today, your home is worth $400,000. In a year, it’s worth $420,000. Regardless of your down payment, the home is worth twenty-thousand dollars more.

That down payment affected your rate of return.

  • With 20% down on the home — $80,000 –your rate of return is 25%
  • With 3% down on the home — $12,000 — your rate of return is 167%

That’s a huge difference.

However! We must also consider the higher mortgage rate plus mandatory private mortgage insurance which accompanies a conventional 97% LTV loan like this. Low-down-payment loans can cost more each month.

Assuming a 175 basis point (1.75%) bump from rate and PMI combined, then, and ignoring the homeowner’s tax-deductibility, we find that a low-down-payment homeowner pays an extra $6,780 per year to live in its home.”

Once you make your down payment, it’s tougher to get that money back

More from Green: “when you’re buying a home, there are other down payment considerations, too.

Namely, once you make a down payment, you can’t get access to those monies without an effort.

This is because, at the time of purchase, whatever down payment you make on the home gets converted immediately from cash into a different type of asset known as home equity.

Home equity is the monetary difference between what your home is worth on paper, and what is owed on it to the bank.

Unlike cash, home equity is an “illiquid asset”, which means that it can’t be readily accessed or spent.

All things equal, it’s better to hold liquid assets as an investor as compared to illiquid assets. In case of an emergency, you can use your liquid assets to relieve some of the pressure.

It’s among the reasons why conservative investors prefer making as small of a down payment as possible.”

In Conclusion

As you can see, there are a wide variety of down payment options for buyers.  Please feel to contact me to go over those choices, as it would be my pleasure to help you in financing your next home.

Visualization – A Great Baseball Mental Exercise

I’m linking to a fantastic article from Geoff Miller at The Winning Mind regarding visualization and it’s fantastic capabilities to help baseball athletes prepare.

What is Visualization?

Visualization is the widely used mental technique of “seeing” your performance in your mind.

The technique is generally done by closing your eyes and imagining a play or action.  It can also be used as a primary training device to take the place of actual physical activity when a player is unable to practice.

You can read the entire piece here…and here’s a little bit about Geoff Miller and The Winning Mind:

Geoff is an expert in baseball psychology and manages sport programs at Winning Mind. Since 2005, Geoff has provided mental skills coaching services to the Pittsburgh Pirates (2005-2009), Washington Nationals (2010), and Atlanta Braves (2010-2014.) 

Why Does Visualization Work?

Per Miller’s article, visualization is effective for two primary reasons:

1. “It strengthens neural pathways, the roads that our brain uses to send out messages to our bodies. A strong neural pathway is like an exact route you know to get from your house to the airport, the mall, etc. The more you picture yourself executing your skills, the stronger your neural pathways become until eventually you feel so comfortable playing your game that the movements feel automatic.”

2. “Our brains see real performance and imagined performance the same. We experience this phenomenon often in our dreams.  For example, you might dream that you are falling and wake up bracing yourself or dream that you are in a panic and wake up sweating.  When you’re awake you might experience a real feeling if someone describes that light, tingling you get that resonates from the bat all the way down your arms when you connect with the ball on the barrel or the stinging in your hands when you get jammed on a ball.”

How Do You Do It?

Miller continues: “When practicing visualization, you should describe the sounds and feelings that go along with swinging the bat, fielding the ball, and throwing pitches. In comic books, Batman and Superman would beat up the villains by punching them, but to get added effect, the artist would draw in a big POW and BAM. When a bomb went off, you’d read KABOOM! These words strengthen our pictures and make our visualization exercises more effective.

Pitching words: fastball ZIP, curveball DIP, slider WHOOSH, POP into the glove

Hitting words: CRACK, SLAM, WHAM, CONNECT, LIGHTNING, POW

Fielding words: GLIDE, REACH, STRETCH, SCURRY, LEAP”

In Conclusion

The biggest issue that many players have with using visualization is not that they can’t imagine the details of their performance, but that they can’t see themselves succeeding.

If this is the case, I’d highly recommend that you read the complete piece here.

The goal we are trying to reach in using the mental game is to know what to do without thinking about it. As Miller says, “using visualization helps us practice our skills so we are more familiar with them and we feel like we’ve already “seen” our performance happen when it does.”

Mortgage Interest Rates and The Federal Reserve

I receive a number of questions regarding mortgage interest rates every time there is a meeting of the Federal Reserve Board. 

Most assume that the Federal Reserve controls mortgage interest rates…and, interestingly, that’s not the case.

I’m linking to a fantastic article by Dan Green at The Mortgage Reports – he does a great job in highlighting what really takes place with mortgage rates.  You can read the entire piece here…and I’ll highlight a few key pieces below.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a rotating, 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve, headed by current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC meets eight times annually on a pre-determined schedule, and on an emergency basis, when needed.

The FOMC’s most well-known role worldwide is as keeper of the federal funds rate.

The Federal Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis.  It is not correlated to mortgage rates.

The FOMC met a few weeks ago and dropped the federal funds rate by .25 basis points to 1.75%.

The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates

Here’s a fantastic graph (courtesy The Mortgage Reports) that shows how the Federal Funds Rate does not track with the 30-year mortgage rate (the green section tracks the mortgage rate, while the blue section highlights the Federal Funds rate):

When the Fed Funds Rate is low, the Fed is attempting to promote economic growth. This is because the Fed Funds Rate is correlated to Prime Rate, which is the basis of most bank lending including many business loans and consumer credit cards.

For the Federal Reserve, manipulating the Fed Funds Rate is one way to manage its dual-charter of fostering maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.

The Federal Reserve can affect today’s mortgage rates, but it does not and cannot set them.

The Federal Reserve has no direct connection to U.S. mortgage rates whatsoever.

The Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates

As Dan Green states: “It’s a common belief that the Federal Reserve ‘makes’ consumer mortgage rates. It doesn’t. The Fed doesn’t make mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are made on Wall Street.

Here’s proof: Over the last two decades, the Fed Funds Rate and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate have differed by as much as 5.25%, and by as little as 0.50%.

If the Fed Funds Rate were truly linked to U.S. mortgage rates, the difference between the two rates would be linear or logarithmic — not jagged.”

With that said, the Fed does exert an influence on today’s mortgage rates.

Fixed Mortgage Rates vs. Treasury Yields

A far better way to track mortgage interest rates is by looking at the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond.  These two seem to track quite closely:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 10-year treasury yield move together because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products.

U.S. Treasury bills, bonds, and notes directly affect the interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages. How? When Treasury yields rise, so do mortgage interest rates. That’s because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products…and investors move to these type of products to fulfill their needs.

What the Fed Says Impacts Mortgage Rates…and Bond Prices

Dan Green outlines how the Fed impacts rates: “the Fed does more than just set the Fed Funds Rate. It also gives economic guidance to markets.

For rate shoppers, one of the key messages for which to listen is the one the Fed spreads on inflation. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds and, in general, when inflation pressures are growing, mortgage rates are rising.

The link between inflation and mortgage rates is direct, as homeowners in the early-1980s experienced.

High inflation rates at the time led to the highest mortgage rates ever. 30-year mortgage rates went for over 17 percent (as an entire generation of borrowers will remind you), and 15-year loans weren’t much better.

Inflation is an economic term describing the loss of purchasing power. When inflation is present within an economy, more of the same currency is required to purchase the same number of goods.”

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and mortgage-backed securities are U.S. dollar-denominated. This means that a devaluation in the U.S. dollar will result in the devaluation of U.S. mortgage-backed securities as well.

When inflation is present in the economy, then, the value of a mortgage bond drops, which leads to higher mortgage rates.

This is why the Fed’s comments on inflation are closely watched by Wall Street. The more inflationary pressures the Fed fingers in the economy, the more likely it is that mortgage rates will rise.

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