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Category: Housing Market (Page 27 of 38)

Interest Rates in 2018 – Cause and Effect

There has been a slow increase in interest rates since September of 2017 – and a quicker jump in the last few weeks.  Bond markets haven’t seen pressures like this in over 4 years – and things are trending higher.

Many potential home buyers and investors are asking why – and what does the future hold?

First, let’s take a look at what the 10 year treasury note has done since September 2017. The 10-year Treasury note rate is the yield or rate of return, you get for investing in this note. The yield is important because it is a true benchmark, which guides other interest rates, especially mortgage rates.

Note the upward slope of the yield on the graph below…and mortgage rates have essentially followed:

OK – so we see the trend line.  So why has this happened?

Well, there are 3 main reasons – and all of them are pretty decent economic signs, as a matter of fact.

Increased Employment and Potential Inflationary Pressures

Many investors believe inflation is bound to tick up if the labor market continues to improve, and some market indicators suggest inflation expectations have been climbing in recent months.  This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices and the passage of sweeping tax cuts.  Many think could provide a further boost to the economy – giving consumers more money at their disposal.

Rising inflation is a threat to government bond investors because it chips away at the purchasing power of their fixed interest payments. As mentioned earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is watched particularly closely because it is a bedrock of global finance. It is key in influencing borrowing rates for consumers, businesses and state and local governments.

If positive labor and economic news keep pouring out (as most analysts believe things will continue  to improve), then the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

‘Quantitative Tightening’ by the Federal Reserve

Between 2009 and 2014, the US Federal Reserve created $3.5 trillion during three phases of what was called “Quantitative Easing”.  It was the Federal Reserve’s response to help reduce the dramatic market swings created by the recession about 10 years ago.  It used that money to buy $3.5 trillion dollars worth of financial assets – principally government bonds and mortgage backed securities issued by the government-sponsored mortgage entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When you really think about it, $3.5 trillion is a pretty large amount of money. When that much money is spent over a six-year period, it would no doubt change the price of anything, bond markets included.  By the way, this maneuver has generally been appreciated in the market and (at least at this time) appears to have been a success.

Well, the Federal Reserve has now begun to reduce its balance sheet as the necessity for investment has given way to the possibility of inflation. Over time, the plan is to reinvest less and less – as per the schedule reproduced in the table below – until such a time as it considers its balance sheet ‘normalized’.

Historically, when the bonds owned by the Fed mature, they simply reinvested the proceeds into new bonds.  It essentially keeps the size of the balance sheet stable, while having very little impact on the market. However, when quantitative tightening began in October of 2017, the Fed started slowing down these reinvestments, allowing its balance sheet to gradually shrink.

In theory, through unwinding its balance sheet slowly by just allowing the bonds it owns to mature, the Fed can attempt to mitigate the fear of what might happen to yields if it was to ever try and sell such a large amount of bonds directly.

Essentially, the Federal Reserve is changing the supply and demand curve and the result is a higher yield in the 10 year treasury note.

Stock Market Increases – Pressuring Bond Markets

Generally speaking, stock markets and bond markets move in different directions. Because both stocks and bonds compete for investment money at a fundamental level, most financial analysts believe that a strengthening equity (stock) market attracts funds away from bonds.

By all measures, 2017 was a stellar year for the stock market. As we enter a new year, experts are cautiously optimistic that stocks will continue their hot streak in 2018.

Stocks soared last year on excellent corporate profits and positive economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up by 25%, the S&P 500 grew by 19% and the Nasdaq index bested them both with a 28% gain.

There is clearly more evidence of excitement among investors in 2018. This has everything to do with a strengthening economy and record corporate revenues…and profits that that have been bolstered by the new tax law.

In the short run, rising equity values would tend to drive bond prices lower and bond yields higher than they otherwise might have been.

What It All Means

So, I think it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage rates overall. These increases look to be gradual, but consistent.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at nearly 6%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home! Now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

2018 Housing Forecast – Sales and Appreciation

Now that 2018 is here, let’s take a look at what we can expect in the housing market.  Experts are predicting some positive shifts moving into 2018, including an ease in the housing inventory shortage.

The latest report from realtor.com shows the market will begin to see more manageable increases in home prices and a modest acceleration of home sales. Analysts from the real estate listings website also predict Millennials will begin to increase their market share of homeownership in 2018.

Here’s the 2018 Housing Appreciation Forecast from the experts at the MBS Highway:

Here’s the forecast from the National Association of Realtors:

A few highlights:

Inventory shortages will drive the housing market

Low inventory will continue to push up home prices and potentially be a barrier for first-time homebuyers who struggle to save for a down payment.  With that said, many low-down payment programs will help this segment.

Many homeowners will remodel rather than sell

In addition to higher housing starts, some experts are saying more homeowners will sell their homes and partially alleviate low inventory issues.

Some homeowners, despite having high confidence about being in a seller’s market, will continue to stay put. Instead of buying a new home, homeowners will refinance and invest in remodeling efforts to make their current homes feel and look brand new.

Builders will turn their focus to entry-level homes

Economists have said over and over again that increased residential housing starts, especially at the starter home level, are the key to bringing home prices down.

Housing starts have been well below the 50-year average of 1.2 million, but many economists expect builders to finally hearken to the call of first-time and lower- to middle-income buyers yearning for more affordable options.

If you have more questions about getting into that new home in 2018, don’t hesitate to contact me, as it would be my privilege to help!

 

Down Payment Strategies for First-Time Home Buyers

For many would-be buyers, the down payment is the only thing keeping them from owning a home. Most have a good paying and consistent job – some are even working to pay down debt.

Right now, mortgage rates are remarkably low, home prices have been increasing steadily, and rental rates are getting out-of-hand. 

With that said, it’s always best to first reach out to an experienced lender to find out more about the different options available.

Here’s a link to a great NerdWallet article from Hal Bundrick that outlines some strategies to break down this home buying barrier.

It doesn’t always take 20% down

If you’re a first-time home buyer, the down payment hurdle you have to clear may be quite a bit lower than you think. Traditionally, lenders have asked for 20% down, but there are many, many low down payment options are available, especially to first-time buyers.

Mortgages guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs or Department of Agriculture can be “no-to-low” down payment loans.

In fact, mortgages backed by the VA and the USDA — for those who qualify — usually don’t require a down payment at all. A funding fee is charged on VA loans, but even that can be rolled into your monthly loan payment.

FHA-backed loans are available with as little as 3.5% down. With that said, buyers will have to pay mortgage insurance to help lenders defray the costs of loans that default.

Conventional loans, which aren’t backed by the government, also offer low down payment programs to first-time buyers. In, fact, down payments of just 3% are common, especially if you are a first-time buyer.  Again, buyers really should reach out to lenders that understand these programs and how they work.

Find out more here:Know Your Down Payment Options: From 0% to 20%

Family down payment gifts

Getting help from family members might be another way to go.

If you’re getting a cash gift for down payment, you’ll want to be sure that you “receive” your cash gift properly. Should you receive your gift improperly, your lender is likely to reject your home loan application.

It’s imperative, therefore, that you follow the rules of cash-gifting for a home.

The down payment gift rules are (1) the gift must be documented with a formal “gift letter”; (2) a paper trail must be shown for the gifted monies as they move from the giver’s account to the home buyer’s account; and (3) the gift may not be a loan-in-disguise. Home buyers are permitted to accept up to 6% of a home’s purchase price in the form of a cash down payment gift.

Using retirement accounts

If you have a retirement funds set aside, you should be able to tap a portion of it to help with the down payment. Employer-sponsored 401(k) plans often allow for penalty-free hardship withdrawals or loans.

One option used by many with a 401k is to take out a loan. Generally, your loan can be up to $50,000 or half the value of the account, whichever is less. As long as you can handle the payments (and yes, you have to pay back this loan), this is usually a less expensive option than a straight withdrawal. Though you will pay interest, you won’t pay taxes or penalties on the loan amount.

Contact your 401(k) plan administrator to find out more.

A few things to know about 401k loans:

  • Since you’re incurring debt and will need to make monthly payments on the loan, your ability to get a mortgage may be affected.
  • The interest rate on 401k loans is generally about two points above the prime rate. The interest you pay, however, isn’t paid to the company – it goes into your 401k account.
  • Many plans give you only five years to repay the loan. In other words, if you borrow a large amount, the payments could be substantial.
  • If you leave your company, you may be required to pay back the outstanding balance within 60 to 90 days or be forced to take it as a hardship withdrawal. This means you’ll be hit with taxes and penalties on the amount you still owe.
  • If payments are deducted from your paycheck, the principal payments will not be taxed but the interest payments will. Since you’ll be taxed again on withdrawals during retirement, the interest payments will end up being double-taxed.

State and local down payment assistance

There are programs in every state, implemented by government agencies, nonprofits, foundations and even employers. Assistance can have a geographic focus as wide as the nation or as narrow as a city — all the way to hyper-local initiatives targeted as tightly as neighborhoods, and even house by house.

Down Payment Assistance (DPA) programs are designed to make new homes affordable for low to middle income buyers.  These mortgage programs can be used whether you are a first time buyer or fifth time buyer (unless there is a state specific program that sets its own rules).

In general, it’s good to keep in mind that many of these programs are government based.  Stipulations may be placed on your purchase like, a requirement that the unit remains owner-occupied or when you decide to sell the property or you may only be able to sell it to another qualified low to moderate-income buyer. Also, the interest rates for these programs are generally higher than other options.

Programs change often; they’re funded, defunded and sometimes re-funded.

Going old-school and saving

There’s always the spend-less-than-you-earn-and-save-it strategy to building a down payment fund.

More than likely, it may take a combination of strategies to get you into a home with a decent down payment — and still have a little left over to cover those unexpected home-ownership expenses. Make sure to reach out to me for more information!

Both Buyer and Seller Confidence Is Up: Now is a Great Time to Make That Home Purchase

Are you thinking of buying a home, but not sure if now is the right time to become a homeowner? It’s easy to dream about owning that new place….but it’s not always easy to know if your timing is on the mark.

The Data

New data shows rising confidence from buyers and sellers alike.

More players on either side of the residential real estate market feel that the time to act is now.

Knowing that many want to pull the trigger on a home purchase or sale can inspire others to do the same.

The link below is from Harvard University’s estimates for home prices in 2018 – I’d invite you to check it out…

Harvard University research: the future of home prices in 2018

Right now, it’s important to learn the facts about what you can afford and the mortgages available to you.

Find out more here from The Mortgage Reports and Erik Martin

Now IS the time, say 77 percent of Americans

Per Martin’s article, a recent survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) yielded some very interesting trends:

  • 77 percent of people feel that right now is a good time to buy a home; 48 percent believe this strongly
  • 62 percent of renters believe that now is a good time to purchase a home. That’s up from 52 percent tallied last quarter and 60 percent one year ago
  • 80 percent of respondents who currently own a home, those older than age 55, those with incomes in excess of $100,000, those who live in rural areas, and those in the South and Midwest think that now is a good time to buy a home
  • 78 percent think it’s currently a good time to sell a home. That’s up from 63 percent measured one year ago
  • Those owning in the West (83 percent) are most likely to believe that now is a good time to sell a home

Other reasons why confidence is up

The Mortgage Reports’ Martin also states that Robert Johnson, president/CEO of The American College of Financial Services, points out that there’s another reason people feel more confident about buying or selling today.

Image source: NAR and The Mortgage Reports

“They feel wealthier because the stock market has gone up over the past 10 years,” he says. “This gives them confidence that makes them believe now is a good time to buy or sell.”

Martin states that another factor is at play, too.

“Perhaps most significant for buyers is that interest rates have been near historically low levels for an extended period of time,” Johnson notes. “Many buyers fear that rates are likely to rise in the future. Thus, they believe that now is a good time to buy. They want to make a purchase before rates rise.”

A Call To Action

The news that more owners think now is a good time to sell should be music to the ears of would-be buyers.

“This could help loosen up inventory. It’s another reason to be optimistic, as housing supply continues to be tight in many markets,” says Jessica Lautz, the National Association of Realtors’ Managing Director.

She notes that many sellers will need to become buyers themselves after unloading their home. The fact that buyer confidence is up can make them feel more secure about selling and then purchasing.

Next Steps

To improve your chances of buying a home sooner, Lautz suggests a few tips.

“You want to get your DTI  — debt to income ratio — down,” she says. DTI is a your total amount of recurring monthly debt payments, including credit cards, student loans, auto loans and mortgages, versus your gross monthly income.

“Many lenders prefer a DTI lower than 43 percent. You can lower your DTI by increasing your income and reducing outstanding debt.

“Also, check your credit report and make sure there are no surprises there. Correct any errors you see,” says Lautz.

“Be sure to consult with experts you can trust. Ask your Realtor and mortgage professional about affordable loan programs in your local community you may be able to qualify for,” she adds.

Final to-dos

In addition, be patient and realistic.

“Don’t rush into any decision you’re not sure of,” cautions Lautz. “Buying a home takes time. Make sure you look at prospective neighborhoods carefully and expect to have competition for that perfect home.”

Lastly, be prepared to make sacrifices and compromises.

“We often find that recent successful home buyers have to compromise on one or more things, including location, price or size of the home,” she says.

The Top 7 First-Time Homebuyer Mistakes

Not Knowing Your Credit Score

The importance of your credit score in the mortgage process is super important. In most cases, this distinction will draw the line between owning a house and renting one.

Even if you have a near perfect sense of financial responsibility today, your credit past can come back to bite you. You will have a hard time getting a home loan if your recent record shows problems with on-time payments, or if there’s an error in your credit report.

It’s truly best to perform a credit check with your chosen lender before you move forward.

If you go ahead and apply for a mortgage without checking your credit score, you could end up doing a lot of searching for nothing and/or paying a lot more than you expected.

 

Not Obtaining Mortgage Pre-Qualification

Some people are anxious to shop for a house and want to do it quickly, before they are financially able to afford it.

If you have already started talking to sellers before sitting down with your mortgage lender, you are making a mistake. In fact, not many sellers will want to work with you if you promise them a certain amount and then can’t fulfill that promise.

To avoid any disappointments, it’s wise to have your home loan pre-approved first, then go ahead and look for a house to buy.

 

Failing to Budget for a Home Loan

As most people know, home ownership is almost always a cheaper alternative to renting in the long run. There are just so many benefits of owning a home, from historical appreciation to the tax benefits. With that said, in the beginning, it can be a bit pricier.

Therefore, it is important to budget for a home loan, beforehand. You need to determine whether your income can accommodate this expense or not.

If you find yourself unable to afford making monthly payments on your home loan, it would be a mistake to try to own a house at this time.

 

Overlooking the Home Resale Value

Remember, this home you are purchasing is considered an asset, and real estate has historically appreciated over time.

You should never overlook the resale value of the home you intend to purchase.

What you need to do is to ask yourself several questions such as: Will it be easy to sell this house? Might I be able to keep it and rent it if I want to upgrade later? Will this house appreciate over time if I decide to buy another one? Is it situated in a preferred neighborhood?

Settling on a Verbal Agreement

Many first time buyers can be a little too trusting. Just because you met the sellers and/or their agent and came to a verbal understanding does not mean a deal is in place. Misunderstandings are guaranteed to happen when agreements are made verbally.

With that said, make sure that you and the seller get everything down in writing to avoid future miscommunications and utilize a standard contract.

This way, you will have the legal high-ground should the seller fail to keep their word.

 

Indecision

As much as it is unwise to rush into making a purchase, it is equally imprudent to take too long to decide if a particular property is right for you.

If you take too long to make a decision, another homebuyer will take advantage of your indecisiveness and buy that home that you’ve had your eye on, but didn’t make an offer.

Since market trends change from time to time, you could also find out that the house you took too long to buy has a new (and higher) price tag attached to it.

 

Forgetting the Costs Associated with Owning a Home

Remember, a home requires money to maintain. Its important to know that upkeep and maintenance costs don’t end on the day you finish your last mortgage payment.

It’s important that you prepare for other costs for maintaining a safe, comfortable, and secure home.

Also, there are other ancillary costs to plan for – such as association fees, insurance, taxes, utilities, maintenance and major/minor repairs, etc.

 

So, If you can avoid these pitfalls commonly made by first-time buyers, the home buying journey will be much, much easier and enjoyable.  Don’t hesitate to reach out to me for help, as I’ve helped countless first time buyers navigate this process!

Photo Credit: Cafe Credit via Flickr, under the Creative Commons License

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