Category: Interest Rates (Page 1 of 29)

Truflation: A New Lens for Understanding Inflation and Seizing Market Opportunities

July 26, 2025 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

As a potential home buyer, investor, or real estate professional, understanding inflation is critical to making informed financial decisions.

As The Lending Coach, I’m committed to helping my clients in Arizona and California build generational wealth through smart mortgage strategies.

One tool gaining attention in the economic landscape is Truflation, a blockchain-based, real-time inflation index that claims to offer a more accurate and timely alternative to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In this post, I’ll explore what Truflation is, evaluate its reliability compared to BLS data, and discuss how borrowers, investors, and real estate agents can leverage this metric to spot market opportunities.

What is “Truflation”?

Truflation is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that tracks inflation in real time, using over 18 million data points from more than 60 data providers.

Unlike the BLS CPI, which relies on a fixed basket of goods and services and is updated monthly with a 45-day lag, Truflation pulls daily price data for a wide range of consumer goods and services. This allows it to reflect current market conditions more dynamically.

Truflation’s methodology is transparent, auditable, and market-driven, aiming to address perceived shortcomings in traditional inflation metrics, such as outdated frameworks and subjective adjustments.

For example, posts on X have highlighted Truflation’s advantages, noting its use of 15 million data points compared to the BLS’s 80,000, and its real-time updates versus the BLS’s delayed reporting.

Additionally, Truflation avoids “black box” methodologies and centralized control, making it an appealing alternative for those seeking economic transparency.

Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?

The BLS CPI, while widely used, has faced criticism for its limitations. The CPI framework, last significantly updated in 1999, may not fully capture the realities of today’s economy, where e-commerce, electric vehicles, and other modern factors play significant roles.

For instance, the CPI uses “hedonic adjustments” to account for quality improvements, which introduces subjectivity and can understate inflation’s impact. Additionally, the CPI excludes asset prices like real estate and stocks, potentially missing key drivers of wealth and cost-of-living changes.

Truflation, by contrast, offers several advantages:

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

Real-Time Data: Truflation updates daily, providing a near-instantaneous view of price changes, while BLS data lags by weeks. This timeliness can be crucial for anticipating market shifts.
Granular and Transparent: With millions of data points and an auditable blockchain framework, Truflation reduces reliance on subjective adjustments and centralized control.
Correlation with CPI: Despite its differences, Truflation’s inflation measurements have shown a high correlation (0.97 to 0.99) with headline CPI since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, suggesting it’s a credible alternative.

However, Truflation is not without challenges. Its lack of seasonal adjustments and reliance on actual prices without imputation may lead to volatility in its readings.

Additionally, as a newer metric, it lacks the long-term track record and institutional acceptance of the BLS CPI, which remains the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for monetary policy. While some X users argue Truflation is “way more accurate than the market,” its reliability depends on the context and use case.

As The Lending Coach, I specifically value transparency and accuracy, and Truflation’s approach aligns with my commitment to honesty and understanding of my clients’ needs.

While the BLS CPI remains the standard, Truflation’s real-time insights offer a compelling complement for those navigating fast-moving markets.

Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents

For borrowers, investors, and real estate agents, Truflation’s real-time data can provide a competitive edge in identifying market opportunities, particularly in the housing market. Here’s how:

For Borrowers

Anticipating Interest Rate Trends: Truflation’s ability to signal inflation trends earlier than the BLS CPI can help borrowers anticipate Federal Reserve actions. For example, a post on X noted that Truflation identified a disinflationary trend in December 2024, ahead of the BLS’s confirmation. If Truflation indicates rising inflation, borrowers may want to lock in fixed-rate mortgages sooner to avoid higher interest rates. At Efficient Lending, we guide clients to secure favorable terms early, ensuring affordability in an inflationary environment.
Leveraging Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Inflation benefits borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, as future payments are made with “cheaper” dollars. Truflation’s real-time insights can help borrowers time their applications to capitalize on this dynamic before rates rise.
Wealth-Building Opportunities: Real estate is a proven hedge against inflation, as home values often rise faster than the CPI. Truflation’s data can help borrowers identify periods of accelerating inflation, signaling a strong time to invest in property to build long-term wealth.

For Real Estate Agents and Investors

Market Timing: Truflation’s daily updates allow agents to spot inflationary trends that could affect housing demand and pricing. For instance, if Truflation signals rising inflation, agents can advise clients to act quickly before higher mortgage rates reduce affordability.
Rental Market Insights: During inflationary periods, rental prices tend to rise due to increased demand and limited supply. Truflation’s granular data can help agents identify markets where rental demand is surging, enabling them to guide investor clients toward high-return opportunities.
Client Education: Agents can use Truflation’s transparent data to educate clients about market conditions, building trust through clear, data-driven advice. This aligns with Efficient Lending’s value of explaining the nuances of mortgage and real estate decisions to empower clients.

Recent Results and Context

As of July 2025, Truflation reported a U.S. inflation rate of 1.82%, compared to the BLS CPI’s 2.7% for the 12 months ending June.

This discrepancy suggests Truflation may detect deflationary or disinflationary trends faster than the BLS, potentially giving borrowers and agents an early warning to adjust strategies.

For example, a lower Truflation rate could signal a window to secure lower mortgage rates before the market catches up.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

I believe in building lasting relationships based on trust, transparency, and education.

Whether you’re a borrower looking to secure a mortgage that fits your unique needs or a real estate agent seeking to guide clients through a dynamic market, I’m here to help.

By staying informed about tools like Truflation, I can provide timely advice to help you capitalize on market opportunities and build generational wealth through real estate.

To learn more about how inflation trends affect your mortgage or real estate strategy, please do reach out to me here…

Ready to take the next step? You can set up an appointment with me here…

Sources:

Truflation.com
Bureau of Labor Statistics
GIS Reports Online
Arrived.com
Investopedia
Posts on X

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Why Waiting to Buy a Home Could Cost You More Than You Think

July 21, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

In today’s uncertain market, it’s easy to understand why many would-be buyers are pressing pause. Headlines talk about rising interest rates, affordability challenges, and fears of a housing bubble.

But while the idea of “waiting for things to get better” might feel safe, it can quietly cost you thousands—and delay your long-term wealth goals.

As a mortgage coach, I work with buyers every day who are trying to make the smartest financial decisions possible. The truth is, and more often-than-not, waiting isn’t the money-saving move people think it is.

Return on Investment

Let’s break it down simply. When you delay buying a home, you’re not just waiting—you’re most likely renting in the meantime. And rent isn’t just a monthly expense; it’s a payment with zero return on investment.

Meanwhile, home prices have historically risen over time. Even if appreciation slows, homes tend to gain value over the long run. So while you’re waiting for rates to drop or for a “perfect time” to buy, the price of the home you want may continue to climb.

That home that costs $450,000 today could easily cost $480,000 next year—and now you’ve missed out on both price and equity growth.

Mortgage Rates

Another key factor? Interest rates are unpredictable. Many buyers assume that mortgage rates will drop significantly soon—but the truth is, no one can accurately time the market.

If rates do drop later, the good news is you can refinance. But if they stay the same or go up further, you’ll have missed out on today’s pricing and rates. Acting now gives you the power of choice, not dependence on something out of your control.

Building Equity – Now!

One of the most overlooked advantages of buying sooner is building equity right away. Every month you own your home, you’re putting a portion of your payment toward your future.

That equity can later be used for renovations, investing in more real estate, or consolidating higher-interest debt. You’re not just buying a place to live—you’re making a step toward long-term financial security.

Options That Can Help

There are also smart tools available right now that can help make buying more affordable in today’s market. I regularly coach clients through strategies like temporary rate buydowns, seller credits, and customized loan structures that ease the initial payment and create a stepping-stone to refinance later.

These aren’t one-size-fits-all tactics—they’re tailored plans that align with your short- and long-term goals. That’s where having a trusted lending coach in your corner really makes a difference.

Long Term Benefits

Remember, buying a home isn’t just about timing the market—it’s about timing your life. If your job, family, or financial picture says you’re ready, then the right time might be now.

The sooner you step into homeownership, the sooner you start creating stability, tax benefits, and equity growth for yourself—not your landlord. There’s real opportunity in today’s market for those willing to look past the noise and take action with guidance.

In Conclusion

If you’re unsure whether now is the right move, let’s talk…and you can reach me here. I’ll walk you through the numbers, talk through your goals, and we can build a plan that makes sense.

My role is to coach you toward the smartest mortgage decision for your future. Let’s make sure waiting isn’t costing you more than you realize.

Lending Coach Podcast – 2025 Mid Year Real Estate and Mortgage Forecast Review

July 7, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

Well, 2025 is past the halfway point, so how does my original forecast look relative to what’s transpired in the real estate and mortgage world?

And what can we expect moving forward into the 2nd half of 2025?

I’d invite you take a listen!

Here’s the link:

Specific Podcast Timestamps:

0:34 – Introduction
2:35 – Interest Rates So Far in 2025 and Real Estate Activity
10:30 – The Fed and Reliable Data – Inflation and Employment
19:50 – US Debt and Inflation
22:56 – Re-visiting January’s Forecast – How Did We Do?
39:40 – What Can We Expect in Mortgage Rates for the 2^nd Half of 2025
40:20 – Can Rates Get to the Low 6% Range? What Might Happen in Real Estate?
41:20 – Pent-up Demand and Home Prices/Buying Opportunities
46:25 – Final Thoughts on the Forecast

I hope you find it interesting, and feel free to reach out directly to me to discuss it further.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

Why the Housing Market Isn’t Crashing in 2025

June 16, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

With rising home prices and fluctuating mortgage rates, it’s understandable that some are wondering whether a housing market crash is on the horizon. The good news…

a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

Multiple key indicators show that today’s market is fundamentally different—and more stable—than what we saw in 2008.

Discover why the housing market isn’t crashing in 2025—and why now might be a smart time to buy.

Lending Standards Are Much Stronger

One of the biggest reasons for the 2008 crash was irresponsible lending. Today, the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is around 28%, compared to 55% in 2008.

That means today’s homeowners have far more equity, which reduces their financial risk and helps maintain market stability.

Risky Loans Are a Thing of the Past

Loans that contributed to the previous crash—like no-document or stated-income loans—are rarely used in today’s lending environment.

And if they are, they typically require large down payments, which keeps borrowers better protected and less likely to default.

Homeowner Equity Remains Strong

If a homeowner today encounters financial hardship, odds are they can still sell their home and walk away with equity in hand.

That’s a big difference from the Great Recession, when many owners were underwater on their mortgages. Equity equals options—and stability.

Most Homeowners Have Locked in Low Rates

Many current homeowners have locked in historically low mortgage rates, and that’s keeping inventory low.

orange model house among black miniatures

With fewer homes going up for sale and continued buyer demand, home prices are being supported, not pressured downward.

The Bottom Line

Today’s housing market is built on a stronger foundation. Tight lending standards, stable equity, and healthy demand are keeping things balanced.

While no market is entirely immune to change, all signs point to resilience—not a crash.

Ready to Make Your Move?

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines or worried about “what ifs,” now’s a great time to get expert insight.

Reach out to me and let’s explore your options, understand what you qualify for, and put together a plan that works for your goals and budget.

A Game Changer for Borrowers with Limited Down Payment Options – The HOPER FHA Mortgage

June 2, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

I have a new mortgage product available that can give up to $13,000 in down payment or closing funds for FHA borrowers.

Best of all, it isn’t a down payment assistance program, it’s actual earned income that is used for qualification purposes and can be utilized any way the borrower would like.

shopping cart with money on top of a laptop

HOPER allows homebuyers to earn up to $13,000 (3.5% of the home purchase price) toward the home purchase—with no repayment, no liens, and an interest rate that’s 1%-2% lower than standard down payment assistance (DPA) options.

Unlike standard DPAs, which often come with higher interest rates and restrictions, HOPER gives buyers real financial flexibility.

Additionally, homebuyers qualify for $10,000-$12,000 in tax credits on average within the first year, allowing them to replenish their savings to create an emergency fund. This financial boost can help set them up for long-term success as a homeowner.

Click here for the link to view a video of the program:

Who is HOPER, and why are they paying FHA homebuyers?

HOPER is a socially-innovative research organization, studying the positive impact that two cash inflows —up to $13,000 at closing and $10,000-$12,000 within a year after closing—along with financial mentorship has on loan performance. Their goal is to prove, through real-world data, that:

Savings rates go up
Default rates go down

To conduct this research, they pay FHA homebuyers for their participation, much like a second job.

How can borrowers use the 3.5% up to $13,000 from HOPER?

This isn’t a loan—it’s earned income, meaning borrowers have full control over how they use it:

Down payment & closing costs – Reduce their upfront cash needed to close.
Interest rate buy-down – Lower their monthly mortgage payment.
Paying off high-interest debt – Improve their overall financial standing.
Savings – Strengthen their emergency fund.

Why would a borrower choose the HOPER program when buying a home?

Here’s why HOPER is a game-changer for FHA homebuyers:

Receive up to $25,000 in financial support—$13,000 upfront + $10,000-$12,000 in tax credits.
Lower monthly costs—Reduce or eliminate their electric bill, protect yourself from rising utility costs.
Better loan terms—No liens, no repayment requirements, lower interest rates than DPAs.
Flexibility—Use their funds strategically to reduce debt, cover costs, or save.

A Real Example

What is required to participate in this project?

1. Buyers are to complete an online financial education course before buying their home (4-6 hours). This equips them with smart money habits and unlocks the 3.5% of the purchase price up to $13K, which is deposited into their savings club account to be used at closing.

2. Sign up for an online financial mentorship course (to be completed within one year of purchasing your home). This prepares them to make wise financial decisions with the $10,000-$12,000 tax credit they will receive, ensuring they build savings instead of spending it.

3. Undergo an energy assessment on the home they are buying. If solar can offset most of their expected electricity use, your home qualifies for the program.

Why is solar a required component of the program?

HOPER’s research focuses on reducing loan default risk. The #1 reason homeowners’ default is a lack of savings, especially in the first five years of purchasing the home.

Many new homeowners report having less than $1,000 in liquid savings, meaning any unexpected expense—a job loss, medical emergency, or car repair—can quickly put them at risk of missing mortgage payments.

man wearing safety glasses and gloves holding solar panels on the roof

Here’s how solar helps:

• Immediate savings boost: Home buyers receive a 30% tax credit for their solar system, averaging $10,000-$12,000, which can be used to build an emergency fund. This equates to roughly 5-6 months of mortgage payments, providing a financial safety net in the crucial early years of home ownership.

• Long-term affordability: Their electric bill is typically the second-largest home expense after the mortgage. By generating most of their electricity from solar, you lock in energy savings and protect yourself from rising utility rates over time. This makes home ownership more sustainable, reducing the risk of financial strain in the future.

How is the solar paid for?

FHA has made it seamless to include the cost of installing solar directly into your mortgage. This means:

The solar system is fully paid for on day one—no separate loan, no extra payments.
The cost is simply rolled into your mortgage, so you own the system outright.
You still benefit from solar incentives, including tax

What will happen to the monthly mortgage payment?

The borrower’s total housing expenses (mortgage + utilities) will remain roughly the same whether they participate in the HOPER program or not.

For example: if adding solar increases the mortgage by $200/month, their electricity bill will typically decrease by roughly the same amount, keeping the overall monthly costs stable.

Who installs the solar?

To ensure compliance with FHA guidelines and timelines, AHA (Attainable Housing Advocates) will get the buyer an energy assessment with a state-approved solar installer.

Once their home’s energy assessment is completed, AHA will provide a solar quote and breakdown of HOPER benefits, allowing them to make an informed decision.

In Conclusion

Do reach out to me for more on this incredible opportunity. As a reminder, this is not a down payment assistance program, it’s earned income that can be utilized for a down payment or closing costs.

Finally, the installed solar system is OWNED BY THE HOMEOWNER – there is no lien on the property whatsoever, so selling the home down the road becomes much easier.

Truflation: A New Lens for Understanding Inflation and Seizing Market Opportunities

What is “Truflation”?

Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?

Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents

For Borrowers

For Real Estate Agents and Investors

Recent Results and Context

How The Lending Coach Can Help

Why Waiting to Buy a Home Could Cost You More Than You Think

Return on Investment

Mortgage Rates

Building Equity – Now!

Options That Can Help

Long Term Benefits

In Conclusion

Lending Coach Podcast – 2025 Mid Year Real Estate and Mortgage Forecast Review

Why the Housing Market Isn’t Crashing in 2025

Lending Standards Are Much Stronger

Risky Loans Are a Thing of the Past

Homeowner Equity Remains Strong

Most Homeowners Have Locked in Low Rates

The Bottom Line

Ready to Make Your Move?

A Game Changer for Borrowers with Limited Down Payment Options – The HOPER FHA Mortgage

Who is HOPER, and why are they paying FHA homebuyers?

How can borrowers use the 3.5% up to $13,000 from HOPER?

Why would a borrower choose the HOPER program when buying a home?

A Real Example

What is required to participate in this project?

Why is solar a required component of the program?

How is the solar paid for?

What will happen to the monthly mortgage payment?

Who installs the solar?

In Conclusion

Apply Now – Online Application

Schedule Appointment With Tom

Guild Mortgage

Contact Tom

About The Coach

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