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Category: Interest Rates (Page 1 of 29)

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

housing market real estate prices business analytics

Let’s dive into a timely economic topic that’s buzzing in real estate circles: how potentially overstated inflation figures could pave the way for favorable conditions in the housing market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025.

people holding a miniature wooden house

This is particularly relevant for real estate agents guiding clients, buyers eyeing their dream home, and sellers looking to capitalize on improving market dynamics.

Let’s break it down step by step, drawing from recent analysis by MBS Highway and current market data.

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are key drivers of Federal Reserve policy, influencing everything from interest rates to mortgage affordability. But here’s the catch: these official numbers might be painting an overly pessimistic picture due to methodological quirks.

According to a recent MBS Highway snippet, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index showed blended rents decelerating to just 2.6% year-over-year in July— a clear sign of cooling in the rental market. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies heavily on imputed data, such as Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which stood at 4.1% in their calculations. OER essentially estimates what homeowners would pay if they rented their own homes, but it’s based on surveys and guesswork rather than real-time transaction data.

codes on tilt shift lens

When you adjust the Core CPI using Zillow’s more granular, market-based figures and apply the appropriate weightings (shelter costs make up about a third of CPI), the inflation reading drops significantly.

MBS Highway estimates Core CPI is overstated by 0.5%, meaning it would clock in at 2.6% instead of the reported 3.1%. Similarly, Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred gauge— is overstated by 0.2%, landing at 2.6% rather than 2.8%. These adjustments even account for external factors like tariffs, which add some upward pressure but are hard to quantify precisely.

The bottom line? The BLS’s use of lagging, imputed data could be inflating perceptions of economic heat. If policymakers shift toward real-time sources like Zillow’s index, we might see a more accurate (and lower) inflation narrative.

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

This discrepancy matters because it directly ties into the Fed’s actions. With inflation appearing stickier than it might actually be, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been cautious. However, markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17, 2025, meeting— with over 85% odds according to CME FedWatch data.

person holding u s dollar banknotes

Economists from firms like J.P. Morgan and Nomura have brought forward their forecasts, expecting this cut amid signs of a softening labor market and broader economic cooling.

Lower federal funds rates typically translate to reduced mortgage rates, making borrowing cheaper. If the Fed acknowledges that inflation is lower than BLS figures suggest (perhaps influenced by real-time data), we could see even more aggressive easing.

This is a game-changer for the real estate sector, where high rates have sidelined many participants in recent years.

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Compounding this opportunity is the steady improvement in housing inventory. As of July 2025, active listings nationwide reached over 1.1 million— up 28.9% year-over-year in June and continuing to surge.

Regions like the West and South are seeing the biggest gains, with increases of 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. This shift toward pre-pandemic levels means more choices for buyers, potentially easing price pressures and creating negotiating leverage.

For real estate buyers: If Zillow’s rent data proves more reflective of true shelter costs, corrected inflation could accelerate rate cuts, lowering your monthly payments.

Home with magnifier

With inventory climbing, now’s the time to lock in a property before competition heats up. Imagine securing a low-cost mortgage that fits your long-term goals— building equity and wealth for generations.

For sellers: More buyers entering the market due to affordability improvements could mean quicker sales and stronger offers. But don’t wait too long; as inventory grows, the balance might tip further toward buyers.

For agents: Educate your clients on these dynamics. Highlight how overstated inflation might be holding back rate relief, and position September’s Fed decision as a pivotal moment. Tools like Zillow’s real-time insights can help demonstrate market realities beyond official stats.

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

As The Lending Coach, I’m all about transparency and tailoring solutions to your needs.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Arizona, or an agent partnering on deals in California, let’s chat about how a potential rate cut could work in your favor.

I love building relationships over the phone— by reaching out to me today, we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Timing the Mortgage Refinance Market: Why Preparation is Everything

computer laptop beside hour glass on brown wooden surface

When it comes to refinancing your mortgage, timing isn’t just important—it’s everything.

10-year treasury chart

The chart above of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield shows a clear pattern: rates dip only occasionally, and those dips are often short-lived.

heap of banknotes beside hourglass

The highlighted yellow sections mark the moments when interest rates were at their lowest, and each time, the opportunity lasted only briefly before rates bounced higher.

Missing that window could mean paying thousands more in interest over the life of your loan.

Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator for mortgage rates. While the two aren’t identical, they move in the same direction.

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and do not closely follow the federal funds rate in the short term.

When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates usually follow—making these rare dips the sweet spot for locking in a lower rate. The challenge is that the market doesn’t send out a “last call” before it shifts. Rates tend to drift lower over time, but they can spike back up overnight.

That’s why being prepared before the dip happens is crucial.

two red balloons with percentage symbols on white background

Today’s Rates

Right now, we’re in a market where rates have been easing slightly. If they dip just a little more, it could create one of those rare refinancing windows for those with mortgages done in the last 3 years—whether for your primary home or an investment property.

But history tells us those windows don’t stay open for long. Waiting until rates hit bottom before starting your refinance process often means you’re already too late.

Beware Unwanted Solicitations

You may also notice that during these periods, you’ll get calls, texts, or emails from other lenders—or even your current loan servicer—promising incredibly low rates.

Woman yelling into phone

Many of those “too good to be true” offers come with fine print or hidden conditions. Sometimes, the rate being advertised isn’t even available to you based on your profile.

My role is to cut through the noise and guide you toward the right move at the right time, with terms that truly benefit you.

Get Ready Now

The smartest way to capture one of these brief dips is to be ready in advance. That means putting together or updating your application, pulling any needed documentation, and having your financial picture up to date.

male athlete preparing to sprint on track

This way, when the market hits that sweet spot, we can move instantly to lock in the best rate—before it disappears. Think of it like a runner crouched at the starting line, ready to sprint the moment the gun fires.

If we prepare now, you won’t need to scramble when the market moves. We’ll already have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity.

This preparation could save you not only money on your monthly payment but also tens of thousands over the life of your mortgage. And for investors, locking in a lower rate means improved cash flow and a stronger long-term return on your property.

The Bottom Line

Refinancing is all about timing, and timing is about preparation. The dips in the market happen quickly and without warning.

By reaching out to me today, we can position you to act decisively when the next one arrives. Don’t leave your savings to chance—let’s get ready now so that when the right moment comes, you’ll be first in line to benefit.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Truflation: A New Lens for Understanding Inflation and Seizing Market Opportunities

As a potential home buyer, investor, or real estate professional, understanding inflation is critical to making informed financial decisions.

marketing businessman person hands

As The Lending Coach, I’m committed to helping my clients in Arizona and California build generational wealth through smart mortgage strategies.

One tool gaining attention in the economic landscape is Truflation, a blockchain-based, real-time inflation index that claims to offer a more accurate and timely alternative to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In this post, I’ll explore what Truflation is, evaluate its reliability compared to BLS data, and discuss how borrowers, investors, and real estate agents can leverage this metric to spot market opportunities.

What is “Truflation”?

Truflation is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that tracks inflation in real time, using over 18 million data points from more than 60 data providers.

Unlike the BLS CPI, which relies on a fixed basket of goods and services and is updated monthly with a 45-day lag, Truflation pulls daily price data for a wide range of consumer goods and services. This allows it to reflect current market conditions more dynamically.

black and white analog watch

Truflation’s methodology is transparent, auditable, and market-driven, aiming to address perceived shortcomings in traditional inflation metrics, such as outdated frameworks and subjective adjustments.

For example, posts on X have highlighted Truflation’s advantages, noting its use of 15 million data points compared to the BLS’s 80,000, and its real-time updates versus the BLS’s delayed reporting.

Additionally, Truflation avoids “black box” methodologies and centralized control, making it an appealing alternative for those seeking economic transparency.

Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?

The BLS CPI, while widely used, has faced criticism for its limitations. The CPI framework, last significantly updated in 1999, may not fully capture the realities of today’s economy, where e-commerce, electric vehicles, and other modern factors play significant roles.

For instance, the CPI uses “hedonic adjustments” to account for quality improvements, which introduces subjectivity and can understate inflation’s impact. Additionally, the CPI excludes asset prices like real estate and stocks, potentially missing key drivers of wealth and cost-of-living changes.

Truflation, by contrast, offers several advantages:

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band
  • Real-Time Data: Truflation updates daily, providing a near-instantaneous view of price changes, while BLS data lags by weeks. This timeliness can be crucial for anticipating market shifts.
  • Granular and Transparent: With millions of data points and an auditable blockchain framework, Truflation reduces reliance on subjective adjustments and centralized control.
  • Correlation with CPI: Despite its differences, Truflation’s inflation measurements have shown a high correlation (0.97 to 0.99) with headline CPI since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, suggesting it’s a credible alternative.

However, Truflation is not without challenges. Its lack of seasonal adjustments and reliance on actual prices without imputation may lead to volatility in its readings.

Additionally, as a newer metric, it lacks the long-term track record and institutional acceptance of the BLS CPI, which remains the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for monetary policy. While some X users argue Truflation is “way more accurate than the market,” its reliability depends on the context and use case.

Tom Bonetto pic

As The Lending Coach, I specifically value transparency and accuracy, and Truflation’s approach aligns with my commitment to honesty and understanding of my clients’ needs.

While the BLS CPI remains the standard, Truflation’s real-time insights offer a compelling complement for those navigating fast-moving markets.

Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents

For borrowers, investors, and real estate agents, Truflation’s real-time data can provide a competitive edge in identifying market opportunities, particularly in the housing market. Here’s how:

For Borrowers

Rolled bills
  • Anticipating Interest Rate Trends: Truflation’s ability to signal inflation trends earlier than the BLS CPI can help borrowers anticipate Federal Reserve actions. For example, a post on X noted that Truflation identified a disinflationary trend in December 2024, ahead of the BLS’s confirmation. If Truflation indicates rising inflation, borrowers may want to lock in fixed-rate mortgages sooner to avoid higher interest rates. At Efficient Lending, we guide clients to secure favorable terms early, ensuring affordability in an inflationary environment.
  • Leveraging Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Inflation benefits borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, as future payments are made with “cheaper” dollars. Truflation’s real-time insights can help borrowers time their applications to capitalize on this dynamic before rates rise.
  • Wealth-Building Opportunities: Real estate is a proven hedge against inflation, as home values often rise faster than the CPI. Truflation’s data can help borrowers identify periods of accelerating inflation, signaling a strong time to invest in property to build long-term wealth.

For Real Estate Agents and Investors

  • Market Timing: Truflation’s daily updates allow agents to spot inflationary trends that could affect housing demand and pricing. For instance, if Truflation signals rising inflation, agents can advise clients to act quickly before higher mortgage rates reduce affordability.
  • Rental Market Insights: During inflationary periods, rental prices tend to rise due to increased demand and limited supply. Truflation’s granular data can help agents identify markets where rental demand is surging, enabling them to guide investor clients toward high-return opportunities.
  • Client Education: Agents can use Truflation’s transparent data to educate clients about market conditions, building trust through clear, data-driven advice. This aligns with Efficient Lending’s value of explaining the nuances of mortgage and real estate decisions to empower clients.

Recent Results and Context

person standing on arrow

As of July 2025, Truflation reported a U.S. inflation rate of 1.82%, compared to the BLS CPI’s 2.7% for the 12 months ending June.

This discrepancy suggests Truflation may detect deflationary or disinflationary trends faster than the BLS, potentially giving borrowers and agents an early warning to adjust strategies.

For example, a lower Truflation rate could signal a window to secure lower mortgage rates before the market catches up.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

I believe in building lasting relationships based on trust, transparency, and education.

Whether you’re a borrower looking to secure a mortgage that fits your unique needs or a real estate agent seeking to guide clients through a dynamic market, I’m here to help.

By staying informed about tools like Truflation, I can provide timely advice to help you capitalize on market opportunities and build generational wealth through real estate.

To learn more about how inflation trends affect your mortgage or real estate strategy, please do reach out to me here…

Ready to take the next step? You can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

Sources:

  • Truflation.com
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • GIS Reports Online
  • Arrived.com
  • Investopedia
  • Posts on X

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Why Waiting to Buy a Home Could Cost You More Than You Think

person holding hour glass

In today’s uncertain market, it’s easy to understand why many would-be buyers are pressing pause. Headlines talk about rising interest rates, affordability challenges, and fears of a housing bubble.

person holding u s dollar banknotes

But while the idea of “waiting for things to get better” might feel safe, it can quietly cost you thousands—and delay your long-term wealth goals.

As a mortgage coach, I work with buyers every day who are trying to make the smartest financial decisions possible. The truth is, and more often-than-not, waiting isn’t the money-saving move people think it is.

Return on Investment

Let’s break it down simply. When you delay buying a home, you’re not just waiting—you’re most likely renting in the meantime. And rent isn’t just a monthly expense; it’s a payment with zero return on investment.

plant growing in coins

Meanwhile, home prices have historically risen over time. Even if appreciation slows, homes tend to gain value over the long run. So while you’re waiting for rates to drop or for a “perfect time” to buy, the price of the home you want may continue to climb.

That home that costs $450,000 today could easily cost $480,000 next year—and now you’ve missed out on both price and equity growth.

Mortgage Rates

Another key factor? Interest rates are unpredictable. Many buyers assume that mortgage rates will drop significantly soon—but the truth is, no one can accurately time the market.

If rates do drop later, the good news is you can refinance. But if they stay the same or go up further, you’ll have missed out on today’s pricing and rates. Acting now gives you the power of choice, not dependence on something out of your control.

Building Equity – Now!

One of the most overlooked advantages of buying sooner is building equity right away. Every month you own your home, you’re putting a portion of your payment toward your future.

That equity can later be used for renovations, investing in more real estate, or consolidating higher-interest debt. You’re not just buying a place to live—you’re making a step toward long-term financial security.

Options That Can Help

There are also smart tools available right now that can help make buying more affordable in today’s market. I regularly coach clients through strategies like temporary rate buydowns, seller credits, and customized loan structures that ease the initial payment and create a stepping-stone to refinance later.

These aren’t one-size-fits-all tactics—they’re tailored plans that align with your short- and long-term goals. That’s where having a trusted lending coach in your corner really makes a difference.

Long Term Benefits

hourglass and house

Remember, buying a home isn’t just about timing the market—it’s about timing your life. If your job, family, or financial picture says you’re ready, then the right time might be now.

The sooner you step into homeownership, the sooner you start creating stability, tax benefits, and equity growth for yourself—not your landlord. There’s real opportunity in today’s market for those willing to look past the noise and take action with guidance.

In Conclusion

If you’re unsure whether now is the right move, let’s talk…and you can reach me here. I’ll walk you through the numbers, talk through your goals, and we can build a plan that makes sense.

My role is to coach you toward the smartest mortgage decision for your future. Let’s make sure waiting isn’t costing you more than you realize.

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Lending Coach Podcast – 2025 Mid Year Real Estate and Mortgage Forecast Review

Podcast image

Well, 2025 is past the halfway point, so how does my original forecast look relative to what’s transpired in the real estate and mortgage world?

Mosaic Podcast image

And what can we expect moving forward into the 2nd half of 2025?

I’d invite you take a listen!

Here’s the link:

Specific Podcast Timestamps:

  • 0:34 – Introduction
  • 2:35 – Interest Rates So Far in 2025 and Real Estate Activity
  • 10:30 – The Fed and Reliable Data – Inflation and Employment
  • 19:50 – US Debt and Inflation
  • 22:56 – Re-visiting January’s Forecast – How Did We Do?
  • 39:40 – What Can We Expect in Mortgage Rates for the 2nd Half of 2025
  • 40:20 – Can Rates Get to the Low 6% Range?  What Might Happen in Real Estate?
  • 41:20 – Pent-up Demand and Home Prices/Buying Opportunities
  • 46:25  – Final Thoughts on the Forecast

I hope you find it interesting, and feel free to reach out directly to me to discuss it further.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

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