When it comes to refinancing your mortgage, timing isn’t just important—it’s everything.
The chart above of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield shows a clear pattern: rates dip only occasionally, and those dips are often short-lived.
The highlighted yellow sections mark the moments when interest rates were at their lowest, and each time, the opportunity lasted only briefly before rates bounced higher.
Missing that window could mean paying thousands more in interest over the life of your loan.
Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator for mortgage rates. While the two aren’t identical, they move in the same direction.
Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and do not closely follow the federal funds rate in the short term.
When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates usually follow—making these rare dips the sweet spot for locking in a lower rate. The challenge is that the market doesn’t send out a “last call” before it shifts. Rates tend to drift lower over time, but they can spike back up overnight.
That’s why being prepared before the dip happens is crucial.
Today’s Rates
Right now, we’re in a market where rates have been easing slightly. If they dip just a little more, it could create one of those rare refinancing windows for those with mortgages done in the last 3 years—whether for your primary home or an investment property.
But history tells us those windows don’t stay open for long. Waiting until rates hit bottom before starting your refinance process often means you’re already too late.
Beware Unwanted Solicitations
You may also notice that during these periods, you’ll get calls, texts, or emails from other lenders—or even your current loan servicer—promising incredibly low rates.
Many of those “too good to be true” offers come with fine print or hidden conditions. Sometimes, the rate being advertised isn’t even available to you based on your profile.
My role is to cut through the noise and guide you toward the right move at the right time, with terms that truly benefit you.
Get Ready Now
The smartest way to capture one of these brief dips is to be ready in advance. That means putting together or updating your application, pulling any needed documentation, and having your financial picture up to date.
This way, when the market hits that sweet spot, we can move instantly to lock in the best rate—before it disappears. Think of it like a runner crouched at the starting line, ready to sprint the moment the gun fires.
If we prepare now, you won’t need to scramble when the market moves. We’ll already have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity.
This preparation could save you not only money on your monthly payment but also tens of thousands over the life of your mortgage. And for investors, locking in a lower rate means improved cash flow and a stronger long-term return on your property.
The Bottom Line
Refinancing is all about timing, and timing is about preparation. The dips in the market happen quickly and without warning.
By reaching out to me today, we can position you to act decisively when the next one arrives. Don’t leave your savings to chance—let’s get ready now so that when the right moment comes, you’ll be first in line to benefit.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
As a potential home buyer, investor, or real estate professional, understanding inflation is critical to making informed financial decisions.
As The Lending Coach, I’m committed to helping my clients in Arizona and California build generational wealth through smart mortgage strategies.
One tool gaining attention in the economic landscape is Truflation, a blockchain-based, real-time inflation index that claims to offer a more accurate and timely alternative to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In this post, I’ll explore what Truflation is, evaluate its reliability compared to BLS data, and discuss how borrowers, investors, and real estate agents can leverage this metric to spot market opportunities.
What is “Truflation”?
Truflation is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that tracks inflation in real time, using over 18 million data points from more than 60 data providers.
Unlike the BLS CPI, which relies on a fixed basket of goods and services and is updated monthly with a 45-day lag, Truflation pulls daily price data for a wide range of consumer goods and services. This allows it to reflect current market conditions more dynamically.
Truflation’s methodology is transparent, auditable, and market-driven, aiming to address perceived shortcomings in traditional inflation metrics, such as outdated frameworks and subjective adjustments.
For example, posts on X have highlighted Truflation’s advantages, noting its use of 15 million data points compared to the BLS’s 80,000, and its real-time updates versus the BLS’s delayed reporting.
Additionally, Truflation avoids “black box” methodologies and centralized control, making it an appealing alternative for those seeking economic transparency.
Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?
The BLS CPI, while widely used, has faced criticism for its limitations. The CPI framework, last significantly updated in 1999, may not fully capture the realities of today’s economy, where e-commerce, electric vehicles, and other modern factors play significant roles.
For instance, the CPI uses “hedonic adjustments” to account for quality improvements, which introduces subjectivity and can understate inflation’s impact. Additionally, the CPI excludes asset prices like real estate and stocks, potentially missing key drivers of wealth and cost-of-living changes.
Truflation, by contrast, offers several advantages:
Real-Time Data: Truflation updates daily, providing a near-instantaneous view of price changes, while BLS data lags by weeks. This timeliness can be crucial for anticipating market shifts.
Granular and Transparent: With millions of data points and an auditable blockchain framework, Truflation reduces reliance on subjective adjustments and centralized control.
Correlation with CPI: Despite its differences, Truflation’s inflation measurements have shown a high correlation (0.97 to 0.99) with headline CPI since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, suggesting it’s a credible alternative.
However, Truflation is not without challenges. Its lack of seasonal adjustments and reliance on actual prices without imputation may lead to volatility in its readings.
Additionally, as a newer metric, it lacks the long-term track record and institutional acceptance of the BLS CPI, which remains the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for monetary policy. While some X users argue Truflation is “way more accurate than the market,” its reliability depends on the context and use case.
As The Lending Coach, I specifically value transparency and accuracy, and Truflation’s approach aligns with my commitment to honesty and understanding of my clients’ needs.
While the BLS CPI remains the standard, Truflation’s real-time insights offer a compelling complement for those navigating fast-moving markets.
Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents
For borrowers, investors, and real estate agents, Truflation’s real-time data can provide a competitive edge in identifying market opportunities, particularly in the housing market. Here’s how:
For Borrowers
Anticipating Interest Rate Trends: Truflation’s ability to signal inflation trends earlier than the BLS CPI can help borrowers anticipate Federal Reserve actions. For example, a post on X noted that Truflation identified a disinflationary trend in December 2024, ahead of the BLS’s confirmation. If Truflation indicates rising inflation, borrowers may want to lock in fixed-rate mortgages sooner to avoid higher interest rates. At Efficient Lending, we guide clients to secure favorable terms early, ensuring affordability in an inflationary environment.
Leveraging Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Inflation benefits borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, as future payments are made with “cheaper” dollars. Truflation’s real-time insights can help borrowers time their applications to capitalize on this dynamic before rates rise.
Wealth-Building Opportunities: Real estate is a proven hedge against inflation, as home values often rise faster than the CPI. Truflation’s data can help borrowers identify periods of accelerating inflation, signaling a strong time to invest in property to build long-term wealth.
For Real Estate Agents and Investors
Market Timing: Truflation’s daily updates allow agents to spot inflationary trends that could affect housing demand and pricing. For instance, if Truflation signals rising inflation, agents can advise clients to act quickly before higher mortgage rates reduce affordability.
Rental Market Insights: During inflationary periods, rental prices tend to rise due to increased demand and limited supply. Truflation’s granular data can help agents identify markets where rental demand is surging, enabling them to guide investor clients toward high-return opportunities.
Client Education: Agents can use Truflation’s transparent data to educate clients about market conditions, building trust through clear, data-driven advice. This aligns with Efficient Lending’s value of explaining the nuances of mortgage and real estate decisions to empower clients.
Recent Results and Context
As of July 2025, Truflation reported a U.S. inflation rate of 1.82%, compared to the BLS CPI’s 2.7% for the 12 months ending June.
This discrepancy suggests Truflation may detect deflationary or disinflationary trends faster than the BLS, potentially giving borrowers and agents an early warning to adjust strategies.
For example, a lower Truflation rate could signal a window to secure lower mortgage rates before the market catches up.
How The Lending Coach Can Help
I believe in building lasting relationships based on trust, transparency, and education.
Whether you’re a borrower looking to secure a mortgage that fits your unique needs or a real estate agent seeking to guide clients through a dynamic market, I’m here to help.
By staying informed about tools like Truflation, I can provide timely advice to help you capitalize on market opportunities and build generational wealth through real estate.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
In today’s uncertain market, it’s easy to understand why many would-be buyers are pressing pause. Headlines talk about rising interest rates, affordability challenges, and fears of a housing bubble.
But while the idea of “waiting for things to get better” might feel safe, it can quietly cost you thousands—and delay your long-term wealth goals.
As a mortgage coach, I work with buyers every day who are trying to make the smartest financial decisions possible. The truth is, and more often-than-not, waiting isn’t the money-saving move people think it is.
Return on Investment
Let’s break it down simply. When you delay buying a home, you’re not just waiting—you’re most likely renting in the meantime. And rent isn’t just a monthly expense; it’s a payment with zero return on investment.
Meanwhile, home prices have historically risen over time. Even if appreciation slows, homes tend to gain value over the long run. So while you’re waiting for rates to drop or for a “perfect time” to buy, the price of the home you want may continue to climb.
That home that costs $450,000 today could easily cost $480,000 next year—and now you’ve missed out on both price and equity growth.
Mortgage Rates
Another key factor? Interest rates are unpredictable. Many buyers assume that mortgage rates will drop significantly soon—but the truth is, no one can accurately time the market.
If rates do drop later, the good news is you can refinance. But if they stay the same or go up further, you’ll have missed out on today’s pricing and rates. Acting now gives you the power of choice, not dependence on something out of your control.
Building Equity – Now!
One of the most overlooked advantages of buying sooner is building equity right away. Every month you own your home, you’re putting a portion of your payment toward your future.
That equity can later be used for renovations, investing in more real estate, or consolidating higher-interest debt. You’re not just buying a place to live—you’re making a step toward long-term financial security.
Options That Can Help
There are also smart tools available right now that can help make buying more affordable in today’s market. I regularly coach clients through strategies like temporary rate buydowns, seller credits, and customized loan structures that ease the initial payment and create a stepping-stone to refinance later.
These aren’t one-size-fits-all tactics—they’re tailored plans that align with your short- and long-term goals. That’s where having a trusted lending coach in your corner really makes a difference.
Long Term Benefits
Remember, buying a home isn’t just about timing the market—it’s about timing your life. If your job, family, or financial picture says you’re ready, then the right time might be now.
The sooner you step into homeownership, the sooner you start creating stability, tax benefits, and equity growth for yourself—not your landlord. There’s real opportunity in today’s market for those willing to look past the noise and take action with guidance.
In Conclusion
If you’re unsure whether now is the right move, let’s talk…and you can reach me here. I’ll walk you through the numbers, talk through your goals, and we can build a plan that makes sense.
My role is to coach you toward the smartest mortgage decision for your future. Let’s make sure waiting isn’t costing you more than you realize.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
With rising home prices and fluctuating mortgage rates, it’s understandable that some are wondering whether a housing market crash is on the horizon. The good news…
Multiple key indicators show that today’s market is fundamentally different—and more stable—than what we saw in 2008.
Discover why the housing market isn’t crashing in 2025—and why now might be a smart time to buy.
Lending Standards Are Much Stronger
One of the biggest reasons for the 2008 crash was irresponsible lending. Today, the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is around 28%, compared to 55% in 2008.
That means today’s homeowners have far more equity, which reduces their financial risk and helps maintain market stability.
Risky Loans Are a Thing of the Past
Loans that contributed to the previous crash—like no-document or stated-income loans—are rarely used in today’s lending environment.
And if they are, they typically require large down payments, which keeps borrowers better protected and less likely to default.
Homeowner Equity Remains Strong
If a homeowner today encounters financial hardship, odds are they can still sell their home and walk away with equity in hand.
That’s a big difference from the Great Recession, when many owners were underwater on their mortgages. Equity equals options—and stability.
Most Homeowners Have Locked in Low Rates
Many current homeowners have locked in historically low mortgage rates, and that’s keeping inventory low.
With fewer homes going up for sale and continued buyer demand, home prices are being supported, not pressured downward.
The Bottom Line
Today’s housing market is built on a stronger foundation. Tight lending standards, stable equity, and healthy demand are keeping things balanced.
While no market is entirely immune to change, all signs point to resilience—not a crash.
Ready to Make Your Move?
If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines or worried about “what ifs,” now’s a great time to get expert insight.
Reach out to me and let’s explore your options, understand what you qualify for, and put together a plan that works for your goals and budget.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
Thomas Eugene Bonetto
Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS: 1431961
About The Coach
Tom Bonetto has been helping his customers and players achieve their best for nearly 30 years. His goal is to provide both a superior customer experience and tremendous value for both his business associates and his players alike.
