Category: Interest Rates (Page 25 of 34)

Mortgage Interest Rates and The Federal Reserve

September 28, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

I receive a number of questions regarding mortgage interest rates every time there is a meeting of the Federal Reserve Board.

Most assume that the Federal Reserve controls mortgage interest rates…and, interestingly, that’s not the case.

I’m linking to a fantastic article by Dan Green at The Mortgage Reports – he does a great job in highlighting what really takes place with mortgage rates. You can read the entire piece here…and I’ll highlight a few key pieces below.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a rotating, 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve, headed by current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC meets eight times annually on a pre-determined schedule, and on an emergency basis, when needed.

The FOMC’s most well-known role worldwide is as keeper of the federal funds rate.

The Federal Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis. It is not correlated to mortgage rates.

The FOMC met a few weeks ago and dropped the federal funds rate by .25 basis points to 1.75%.

The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates

Here’s a fantastic graph (courtesy The Mortgage Reports) that shows how the Federal Funds Rate does not track with the 30-year mortgage rate (the green section tracks the mortgage rate, while the blue section highlights the Federal Funds rate):

When the Fed Funds Rate is low, the Fed is attempting to promote economic growth. This is because the Fed Funds Rate is correlated to Prime Rate, which is the basis of most bank lending including many business loans and consumer credit cards.

For the Federal Reserve, manipulating the Fed Funds Rate is one way to manage its dual-charter of fostering maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.

The Federal Reserve can affect today’s mortgage rates, but it does not and cannot set them.

The Federal Reserve has no direct connection to U.S. mortgage rates whatsoever.

The Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates

As Dan Green states: “It’s a common belief that the Federal Reserve ‘makes’ consumer mortgage rates. It doesn’t. The Fed doesn’t make mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are made on Wall Street.

Here’s proof: Over the last two decades, the Fed Funds Rate and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate have differed by as much as 5.25%, and by as little as 0.50%.

If the Fed Funds Rate were truly linked to U.S. mortgage rates, the difference between the two rates would be linear or logarithmic — not jagged.”

With that said, the Fed does exert an influence on today’s mortgage rates.

Fixed Mortgage Rates vs. Treasury Yields

A far better way to track mortgage interest rates is by looking at the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond. These two seem to track quite closely:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 10-year treasury yield move together because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products.

U.S. Treasury bills, bonds, and notes directly affect the interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages. How? When Treasury yields rise, so do mortgage interest rates. That’s because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products…and investors move to these type of products to fulfill their needs.

What the Fed Says Impacts Mortgage Rates…and Bond Prices

Dan Green outlines how the Fed impacts rates: “the Fed does more than just set the Fed Funds Rate. It also gives economic guidance to markets.

For rate shoppers, one of the key messages for which to listen is the one the Fed spreads on inflation. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds and, in general, when inflation pressures are growing, mortgage rates are rising.

The link between inflation and mortgage rates is direct, as homeowners in the early-1980s experienced.

High inflation rates at the time led to the highest mortgage rates ever. 30-year mortgage rates went for over 17 percent (as an entire generation of borrowers will remind you), and 15-year loans weren’t much better.

Inflation is an economic term describing the loss of purchasing power. When inflation is present within an economy, more of the same currency is required to purchase the same number of goods.”

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and mortgage-backed securities are U.S. dollar-denominated. This means that a devaluation in the U.S. dollar will result in the devaluation of U.S. mortgage-backed securities as well.

When inflation is present in the economy, then, the value of a mortgage bond drops, which leads to higher mortgage rates.

This is why the Fed’s comments on inflation are closely watched by Wall Street. The more inflationary pressures the Fed fingers in the economy, the more likely it is that mortgage rates will rise.

Economic Turbulence on the Horizon – Recession, Rates, and Real Estate

September 7, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

It does look like most economists are pointing to a recession (although most do think it will be relatively mild by historical standards) in the next 12 months.

A recession occurs when there are two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, meaning GDP growth contracts during a recession.

When an economy is facing recession, business sales and revenues decrease, which cause businesses to stop expanding.

How do the economists know this? And what does this mean for interest rates and real estate values? Read on for more…

Recessionary Indicators

The Yield Curve

One of the major indicators for an upcoming recession is the spread between the 10-year US treasury yield and the 2-year US treasury yield.

While various economic or market commentators may focus on different parts of the yield curve, any inversion of the yield curve tells the story – an expectation of weaker growth in the future.

What does this inverted yield curve look like? Here’s a good depiction:

Why does inversion matter? Well, the yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

When short-term yields climb above longer-dated ones, it signals short-term borrowing costs are more expensive than longer-term loan costs.

Under these circumstances, companies often find it more expensive to fund their operations, and executives tend to temper or shelve investments.

Consumer borrowing costs also rise and consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slows.

Unemployment

Unemployment is a recessionary factor, too – as economic growth slows, companies generate less revenue and lay off workers to cut costs.

A rapid increase in the overall unemployment levels—even if relatively small—has been an accurate indication that a recession is underway.

Here’s a chart that shows what happens when unemployment starts to trend upward – and notice that recessions follow shortly thereafter:

As you can see, when things in the economy starts to slow down, one of the first things business do is to reduce their labor force. The curve is flatting now, and unemployment might be ticking up soon.

Mortgage Rates During Recession

When a recession hits, the Federal Reserve prefers rates to be low. The prevailing logic is low-interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, which stimulates the economy.

During a recession, the demand for credit actually declines, so the price of credit falls to entice borrowing activity.

Here’s a quick snapshot of what mortgage rates have done during recessionary periods:

Obtaining a mortgage during a recession might actually be a good opportunity. As mentioned, when the economy is sluggish, interest rates tend to drop.

Refinancing or purchasing a new home could be a great way to get in at the bottom of the market and make a healthy profit down the road. A borrower should be market- and financially savvy when considering large real estate purchases in a recession

Real Estate During Recession

Believe it or not, outside of the “great recession” of 2007 (which was caused, in part, to a housing crisis), home values and real estate actually appreciate historically during times of recession.

That seems counter intuitive…but because interest rates generally drop during recessionary periods, homes become MORE affordable to potential buyers (even though property values are higher), due to the lower payments provided by those lower rates.

When more people can qualify for homes, the demand for housing increases – and so do home prices.

In Closing

Although no one likes to see recession, you can observe that it actually can be beneficial for homeowners and would-be purchasers to refinance or purchase during these periods.

If you have more questions and or would like to strategize about purchasing or refinancing, don’t hesitate to contact me, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

The Top 10 Mortgage Questions a Borrower Should Ask

June 29, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

It’s a good idea to put together a list of questions to ask potential lenders in order find out which one will be best for you. These and other questions should help you choose the right lender and the best home loan.

How do I obtain pre-approval?

One of the best ways to ensure a smooth home buying process is what you do before you begin your home search.

Mortgage pre-approval, without the pressure of a closing date, is easier than trying to engineer a full approval from the ground up. And having a pre-approved mortgage means you can close faster when you’re ready to buy.

Ask the lender what documentation they need and what processes they have in place to secure and automated underwriting approval. If they can’t provide that information, find another lender! You can find out more about the pre-approval process here….

Which type of mortgage is best for me?

This question will help you know if you’re talking to someone who wants to sell you a loan quickly — or a trusted loan advisor who will be looking out for your best interest.

When you ask, “What are my options?” for a particular type of loan, the mortgage lender should dive deeper into your situation and ask YOU questions about your financial goals. You can really gauge the professionalism of the lender by the questions he/she asks.

What’s your communication style?

Mortgage lenders can communicate with you in multiple ways – including by phone, email and text. Some are tech savvy and others prefer traditional methods.

The point is to be clear about what you prefer.

If you respond more quickly to text messages versus voicemail – tell your loan officer. Often times, there are time sensitive issues that arise during the loan process, so it will make everyone happy if your loan officer knows how to get questions answered, additional documentation etc. in a timely manner.

How often will I be updated on the loan’s progress?

You should be introduced to all parties that will be involved with your loan – from the originator, to the processor, and any other assistants. Have their contact information handy during the loan process.

And how will you be updated on the progress: by email, phone or an online portal? How often?

I recommend that you share your service expectations upfront, and check to see if the lender you are working with has these types of processes in place that meet your requirements. If not, move on!

How much down payment will I need?

A 20% down payment may be nice, but borrowers have multiple choices. Qualified buyers can find mortgages with as little as 3% down, or even no down payment, depending on the property location.

Again, there are considerations for every down payment option and the best lenders will take the time to walk you through the choices, based on your stated goals. You can find out more about down payment requirements here….

Will I have to pay mortgage insurance?

If you put down less than 20%, the answer will probably be “Yes.” Even if the mortgage insurance is “lender paid,” it’s likely passed on as a cost built into your mortgage payment, which increases your rate and monthly payment.

You’ll want to know just how much mortgage insurance will cost and if it’s an upfront or ongoing charge, or both. You can find out more about mortgage insurance here….

Are You Equipped to Approve Loans In-House?

Underwriters review loans and issue conditions before approving or rejecting a loan. Ask if the lender handles its own underwriting and does their own approvals. This can be a make or break proposition if you need to close the loan in a timely fashion.

What other costs will I pay at closing?

Fees that are charged by third parties, such as for an appraisal, a title search, property taxes and other closing costs, will be paid at the loan signing. These costs will be detailed in your official Loan Estimate document and your almost-time-to-sign Closing Disclosure.

Your lender should be absolutely upfront regarding this. You can find out more about closing costs here….

How long until my loan closes?

Of course, you want to know what your target closing and move-in dates are so you can make preparations. And just as important: Ask what you should avoid doing in the meantime — like buying new furniture on credit and other loan-busting behavior.

Is there anything that can delay my closing?

Well, buying a home is a complex process with many stages and requirements. While delays are normal, the best way to avoid them is to stay in touch with your lender and provide the most up-to-date documentation as quickly as you can. If you have any past credit issues or job related changes, let your lender know immediately to avoid any last minute delays.

5 Things Real Estate Agents Should Know About Mortgages

June 22, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

Unless all of your clients are cash buyers, mortgages are an integral part of any real estate agent’s business. Knowing some basics about mortgages will make you a better adviser to your clients and a more effective agent.

With that in mind, here’s a brief list of topics that real estate agents should understand in order to best help and advise their clients.

Although it is by no means necessary to become a mortgage expert, the following five mortgage insights will increase your value as a real estate professional.

The minimum down payment is not 20%

Most agents already know this, but a 20% down payment is the amount necessary for a buyer to avoid paying private mortgage insurance (referred to as PMI) on the loan. There are many conventional loan programs require as little as 5% down.

For first-time homebuyers, recent conventional loan programs introduced to the market allow buyers to get a loan with only 3% down. If you work primarily with first-time homebuyers, you should also be aware of down payment assistance programs offered by local governments and municipalities.

You can find more about down payment options here….and here

Even move-up buyers should get a mortgage pre-approval

Many of the first-time buyers I work with get pre-approved so they know how much they can afford to spend on their new home. But not all realtors encourage move-up buyers to seek pre-approval, and I think they should.

The situation may have changed from the time their clients originally took out a mortgage. Even if they’ve built up a lot of equity, it may not help the buyer if their income or credit is not aligned with the price of the property they hope to buy.

Oftentimes, people who have qualified for a mortgage at one time are surprised by new and current restrictions and underwriting standards. For this reason, real estate agents should encourage their clients to speak with a mortgage broker even if the client thinks they already know the ropes.

This can help avoid surprises or disappointment further down the line and save time for agents and their clients.

Shopping around for a mortgage will not hurt your credit score

Shopping around for a mortgage with multiple lenders is highly recommended, and even though credit inquiries do impact a borrower’s credit score, there is an exception when it comes to credit inquiries from mortgage lenders.

All such inquiries made in the 30-day period prior to scoring your credit are usually ignored. Furthermore, inquiries outside of that 30-day period that fall within a typical shopping period are counted as only one inquiry.

You can find out more on multiple credit pulls here….

Condos have special underwriting requirements

If you’re working on a condo deal, it is in your and your client’s best interest to work closely with the mortgage loan officer to make sure the property meets the lender’s underwriting criteria. This is typically done through a condo questionnaire.

If you are the seller and state on your listing that the property can be conventionally financed, I highly recommend that you have the HOA documentation ready for the prospective buyer.

Among other things, they will be looking out for things such as pending litigation against the condo association, the percentage of units that are owner-occupied and whether any part of the building is used for commercial activity.

Many condo transactions are either seriously delayed or completely derailed by last-minute surprises that should have been discovered early in the process.

You can find out the specifics about condo warrantability here…

Advertised rates aren’t always available

Some realtors encourage their clients to shop around for rates at the last minute or promise mortgage interest rates to clients that they have seen online. This can often lead to frustration because not everyone will qualify for those advertised, ultra-low promo rates and there may be additional stipulations such as a quick closing or mortgage insurance.

That’s why I personally don’t promise rates until I have a completed application and all supporting documents. No two files are the same, so it’s best not to promise something over which we have no control.

There is a lot more to know when it comes to mortgages – and like I stated early, there’s no reason to become a mortgage guru! With that said, these five tips will help you look like a more that capable advisor in the eyes of your clients.

If you have other questions or would like to dive deeper into any of these topics, don’t hesitate to reach out to me!

Summer 2019 Forecast – Buyer or Seller Market?

June 1, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

Most experts expect that the summer homebuying season will be quite strong. But a question remains about this real estate market: will it favor buyers, sellers, or both? Let’s take a closer look at who might benefit the most from the upcoming real estate buying season.

Remarkably, based just on consumer confidence, it appears that the summer homebuying season may be beneficial for both buyers and sellers.

According to Fannie Mae, one of the nation’s top mortgage investors, Americans are extremely optimistic about the housing market’s direction.

Growth typically means that it’s a good time to both buy and sell a home, and indicators are that Americans believe interests rates will stay relatively in check while their incomes will increase.

While consumer confidence may be high, some economists are ambivalent about the strength of the housing market.

There are some signs that the market is flattening, instead of continuing to race upward. Experts are actually divided on this issue, as home prices are still appreciating.

For instance, home sales at the national level are slowing slightly, although the rate of home appreciation is still increasing, albeit at a slightly slower rate. In addition, it’s taking a bit longer for homes to sell in some areas of the US, which means the days of homeowners benefiting from bidding wars might be on the wane.

This isn’t necessarily the case out west, as inventories are still low and there are more buyers that sellers. At the same time, with interest rates stabilizing, homes are still extraordinarily affordable, compared to historical norms.

So, who actually is going to benefit from the strong summer market?

Taking into account these facts, it looks like home buyers will have a slight advantage this summer. For starters, home prices are still on the rise but not as sharply as they once were.

Some sellers are also reducing their original listing price, which indicates they’re having trouble attracting buyers. Finally, the Federal Reserve has signaled that interest rates should stay relatively stable through the summer, which is the reason for the strong market, and as almost everyone knows, low interest rates are better for buyers. Rates have been steadily ticking downward over the last 2 months or so.

The summer homebuying season is going to be very strong, and tilted in favor of home buyers. If you’ve been thinking about buying a new home, now might be the perfect time – feel free to contact me for more information!

Source: Chicago Tribune