Category: Mortgage (Page 33 of 60)

Mortgage Interest Rates and The Federal Reserve

September 28, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

I receive a number of questions regarding mortgage interest rates every time there is a meeting of the Federal Reserve Board.

Most assume that the Federal Reserve controls mortgage interest rates…and, interestingly, that’s not the case.

I’m linking to a fantastic article by Dan Green at The Mortgage Reports – he does a great job in highlighting what really takes place with mortgage rates. You can read the entire piece here…and I’ll highlight a few key pieces below.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a rotating, 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve, headed by current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC meets eight times annually on a pre-determined schedule, and on an emergency basis, when needed.

The FOMC’s most well-known role worldwide is as keeper of the federal funds rate.

The Federal Funds Rate is the prescribed rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis. It is not correlated to mortgage rates.

The FOMC met a few weeks ago and dropped the federal funds rate by .25 basis points to 1.75%.

The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates

Here’s a fantastic graph (courtesy The Mortgage Reports) that shows how the Federal Funds Rate does not track with the 30-year mortgage rate (the green section tracks the mortgage rate, while the blue section highlights the Federal Funds rate):

When the Fed Funds Rate is low, the Fed is attempting to promote economic growth. This is because the Fed Funds Rate is correlated to Prime Rate, which is the basis of most bank lending including many business loans and consumer credit cards.

For the Federal Reserve, manipulating the Fed Funds Rate is one way to manage its dual-charter of fostering maximum employment and maintaining stable prices.

The Federal Reserve can affect today’s mortgage rates, but it does not and cannot set them.

The Federal Reserve has no direct connection to U.S. mortgage rates whatsoever.

The Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates

As Dan Green states: “It’s a common belief that the Federal Reserve ‘makes’ consumer mortgage rates. It doesn’t. The Fed doesn’t make mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are made on Wall Street.

Here’s proof: Over the last two decades, the Fed Funds Rate and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate have differed by as much as 5.25%, and by as little as 0.50%.

If the Fed Funds Rate were truly linked to U.S. mortgage rates, the difference between the two rates would be linear or logarithmic — not jagged.”

With that said, the Fed does exert an influence on today’s mortgage rates.

Fixed Mortgage Rates vs. Treasury Yields

A far better way to track mortgage interest rates is by looking at the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond. These two seem to track quite closely:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 10-year treasury yield move together because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products.

U.S. Treasury bills, bonds, and notes directly affect the interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages. How? When Treasury yields rise, so do mortgage interest rates. That’s because investors who want a steady and safe return compare interest rates of all fixed-income products…and investors move to these type of products to fulfill their needs.

What the Fed Says Impacts Mortgage Rates…and Bond Prices

Dan Green outlines how the Fed impacts rates: “the Fed does more than just set the Fed Funds Rate. It also gives economic guidance to markets.

For rate shoppers, one of the key messages for which to listen is the one the Fed spreads on inflation. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds and, in general, when inflation pressures are growing, mortgage rates are rising.

The link between inflation and mortgage rates is direct, as homeowners in the early-1980s experienced.

High inflation rates at the time led to the highest mortgage rates ever. 30-year mortgage rates went for over 17 percent (as an entire generation of borrowers will remind you), and 15-year loans weren’t much better.

Inflation is an economic term describing the loss of purchasing power. When inflation is present within an economy, more of the same currency is required to purchase the same number of goods.”

Meanwhile, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and mortgage-backed securities are U.S. dollar-denominated. This means that a devaluation in the U.S. dollar will result in the devaluation of U.S. mortgage-backed securities as well.

When inflation is present in the economy, then, the value of a mortgage bond drops, which leads to higher mortgage rates.

This is why the Fed’s comments on inflation are closely watched by Wall Street. The more inflationary pressures the Fed fingers in the economy, the more likely it is that mortgage rates will rise.

Economic Turbulence on the Horizon – Recession, Rates, and Real Estate

September 7, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

It does look like most economists are pointing to a recession (although most do think it will be relatively mild by historical standards) in the next 12 months.

A recession occurs when there are two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, meaning GDP growth contracts during a recession.

When an economy is facing recession, business sales and revenues decrease, which cause businesses to stop expanding.

How do the economists know this? And what does this mean for interest rates and real estate values? Read on for more…

Recessionary Indicators

The Yield Curve

One of the major indicators for an upcoming recession is the spread between the 10-year US treasury yield and the 2-year US treasury yield.

While various economic or market commentators may focus on different parts of the yield curve, any inversion of the yield curve tells the story – an expectation of weaker growth in the future.

What does this inverted yield curve look like? Here’s a good depiction:

Why does inversion matter? Well, the yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

When short-term yields climb above longer-dated ones, it signals short-term borrowing costs are more expensive than longer-term loan costs.

Under these circumstances, companies often find it more expensive to fund their operations, and executives tend to temper or shelve investments.

Consumer borrowing costs also rise and consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slows.

Unemployment

Unemployment is a recessionary factor, too – as economic growth slows, companies generate less revenue and lay off workers to cut costs.

A rapid increase in the overall unemployment levels—even if relatively small—has been an accurate indication that a recession is underway.

Here’s a chart that shows what happens when unemployment starts to trend upward – and notice that recessions follow shortly thereafter:

As you can see, when things in the economy starts to slow down, one of the first things business do is to reduce their labor force. The curve is flatting now, and unemployment might be ticking up soon.

Mortgage Rates During Recession

When a recession hits, the Federal Reserve prefers rates to be low. The prevailing logic is low-interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, which stimulates the economy.

During a recession, the demand for credit actually declines, so the price of credit falls to entice borrowing activity.

Here’s a quick snapshot of what mortgage rates have done during recessionary periods:

Obtaining a mortgage during a recession might actually be a good opportunity. As mentioned, when the economy is sluggish, interest rates tend to drop.

Refinancing or purchasing a new home could be a great way to get in at the bottom of the market and make a healthy profit down the road. A borrower should be market- and financially savvy when considering large real estate purchases in a recession

Real Estate During Recession

Believe it or not, outside of the “great recession” of 2007 (which was caused, in part, to a housing crisis), home values and real estate actually appreciate historically during times of recession.

That seems counter intuitive…but because interest rates generally drop during recessionary periods, homes become MORE affordable to potential buyers (even though property values are higher), due to the lower payments provided by those lower rates.

When more people can qualify for homes, the demand for housing increases – and so do home prices.

In Closing

Although no one likes to see recession, you can observe that it actually can be beneficial for homeowners and would-be purchasers to refinance or purchase during these periods.

If you have more questions and or would like to strategize about purchasing or refinancing, don’t hesitate to contact me, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

Which Is Better: Cash-Out Refinance or a HELOC?

September 3, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

When you need cash for home improvements, school tuition, a down payment for a 2^nd home, or debt consolidation, you might want to consider tapping into what could be your greatest source of wealth — your home equity.

Interestingly, there is more than one way to access your home equity – so it’s smart to compare available options to find the right fit.

Two of the most popular ways are a home equity line of credit (HELOC) and a cash-out refinance. Both of these loans can work if you want to access your home equity, but they do work rather differently.

The “Cash-Out” Refinance

Cash-out refinancing involves replacing your current home loan with a new one. The “cashing out” part of the equation means you essentially take out a larger home loan than you currently have so you can receive the difference as a lump sum. This strategy works for those who have equity in their homes due to paying down their mortgage balances or appreciation of their property.

To qualify for a cash-out refinance, you need to meet similar requirements as you would if you were applying for a first mortgage – and you must have the equity in your home to qualify, as well. You can borrow up to 80% of your home’s value.

So, let’s assume your home has a value of $300,000 and you want to take cash out. In that case, you could only borrow up to $240,000 through a cash-out refinance. If you owe that much or more on your home already, you wouldn’t qualify.

The Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

While a cash-out refinance requires you to replace your current mortgage with a new one, a HELOC lets you keep your first mortgage exactly how it is.

Acting as a second mortgage, a HELOC lets you borrow against your home equity via a line of credit. This strategy allows you to withdraw the money you want when you want it, then repay only the amounts you borrow.

You now have two mortgage payments to make each month – your first mortgage payment and the new HELOC.

To qualify for a HELOC, you need to have equity in your home. Depending on your creditworthiness and how much debt you have, you may be able to borrow up to 85% of the appraised value of your home after you subtract the balance of your first mortgage.

For example, let’s say your home is worth $300,000 and the balance on your mortgage is currently $200,000. A HELOC could make it possible for you to borrow up to $255,000, because you would still retain 85% equity after accounting for your first mortgage and your HELOC.

Generally speaking, HELOCs work a lot like a credit card. You typically have a “draw period” during which you can take out money to use for any purpose. Once that period ends, you may have the option to repay the loan amount over a specific amount of time or you might be required to repay the balance in full.

Like credit cards, HELOCs also tend to come with variable interest rates, so you should be prepared for some rate volatility.

Key Differentiators

Before you decide between a HELOC or a cash-out refinance, it helps to do some analysis on your personal finances and your overall goals.

A cash-out refinance may work better if:

Your current home loan has a higher rate than you could qualify for now, so refinancing could help you save on interest
You need more than $50,000 overall
You prefer the stability of a fixed monthly payment or only want to make one mortgage payment every month
You have high-interest debts and want to consolidate them at the same rate as your new mortgage
What you save by refinancing — such as savings from a lower interest rate — outweighs the fees that come with refinancing
You are able to roll your closing costs/fees into the new loan amount so there are no out-of-pocket costs

A HELOC may work better if:

You are happy with your first mortgage and don’t want to trade it for a new loan
You need less than $50,000 overall
Your first mortgage has a lower interest rate than you can qualify for with today’s rates
You aren’t sure how much money you need, so you prefer the flexibility of having a line of credit you can borrow against
You want to be able to borrow up to 85% of your home’s value versus the 80% you can borrow with a cash-out refinance

Here’s a quick “snapshot” of two different options – notice how the smaller transaction works well with the HELOC, the larger one with the refinance.

As you can see, for the smaller transaction, the HELOC is less expensive overall – both in fees and monthly payment. However, once you go over the $50,000 mark in cash-back, it appears that the cash-out refinance is the most economical, all things considered.

I’d invite you to find out more from Gina Pogol at The Mortgage Reports here….and Holly Johnson at Magnify Money here….

HELOC Pros and Cons

Pros

Applying for a HELOC allows you to maintain the terms of your original mortgage, which can be an advantage if your rate is low.
You can use money from a HELOC for anything you want, and you only have to repay amounts you borrow.
HELOCs tend to come with lower closing costs than traditional mortgages and home equity loans.
HELOCs can generally be closed quicker than refinances

Cons

Taking out a HELOC means you’ll need to make two housing payments every month — your first mortgage payment and your HELOC payment.
Interest on a HELOC is no longer tax-deductible, unless the funds are used for acquisition or updating your home.
They are more expensive the more you borrow – if you are needing more than $50,000, your payments might be higher than that of a refinance
Since you only repay what you borrow and the interest rate on HELOCs is typically variable, you may not be able to anticipate what your monthly payment will be. Your monthly payment could also be interest only at first, meaning your payment won’t go toward the principal or help pay down the balance of your loan.
The interest rate on HELOCs tends to be higher than first mortgages, and their variable rates can seem riskier. You may also be required to pay a balloon payment at the end of your loan, so make sure to read and understand the terms and conditions.

Refinance Pros and Cons

Pros

You can use the money from a cash-out refinance for anything you want, including home upgrades, college tuition, a vacation or debt consolidation.
If rates have gone down or your credit has improved since you took out your original home loan, you could refinance your mortgage into a new loan with a lower interest rate.
You can choose from different types of loans for your refinance, with various terms and fixed or variable rates available.
Interest on your first mortgage may be tax-deductible.
Interest rates on first mortgages tend to be lower than other options, such as home equity loans or HELOCs.

Cons

Closing costs for a cash-out refinance are typically higher than those of a HELOC
If interest rates have gone up since you purchased your home, you could be trading your mortgage for a higher interest loan that will be more expensive.
Refinancing your home to take cash out may leave you in mortgage debt longer.
You won’t qualify for a cash-out refinance unless you have at least 80% equity in your home after the process is complete.

In Conclusion

As you can see, there’s really no right or wrong decision to be made here, but it is important that you know the benefits and drawbacks of both options. Please do reach out to me for more information, as I’d be happy to go over the specifics of your scenario to find the best option.

A True Mortgage Approval Before a Purchase – The “TBD” Underwrite

August 14, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

In today’s competitive real estate market, potential home-buyers need every advantage they can get.

One way to differentiate your offer from the myriad of others is a true “TBD underwritten” loan approval.

I’m not talking about the typical pre-qualification letter that is a cursory overview of a borrower’s ability to gain an approval, but a fully underwritten approval that is only waiting for a contract.

This process is for the home-buyer who wants a solid, iron clad pre-approval that has been fully underwritten and signed off by mortgage underwriters.

How does that work?

Well, it works very similarly to a full-fledged underwrite – except the address is left blank – or “TBD” (to be determined). The underwriter analyzes the file as if it was a true loan – and provides the actual loan conditions that the borrower must meet.

What’s the downside?

The only real downside is time. This process could take as long as a few weeks, because all documentation needs to be gathered (tax returns, W2s, pay stubs, bank statements, etc.) and then analyzed by the underwriter.

What’s the advantage?

There are a multitude of advantages. First and foremost, the borrower will know the exact size of the mortgage that they will be able to qualify for. They will have a very good idea of the monthly payment and be assured that the loan will go through.

Equally important, the offer you submit will essentially be like a cash offer. The real estate agent presenting the offer will share with the seller’s agent that the mortgage approval is actually confirmed – not pre-qualified. This will make your offer much more attractive to the sellers, as they don’t have to be concerned about mortgage approval.

Finally, the closing can take place more quickly than standard financed transactions. Essentially all that’s needed is an appraisal to confirm the value of the property. Instead of a 30 to 45 day close, these can be done in less than 20!

In Conclusion

If you know that you will be purchasing a home in the near future, ask your mortgage lender about a “TBD approval” to see if that’s an option. If so, I highly recommend that you go through the process early – and in that way you will be miles ahead of your buying competition!

Please do reach out to me for more information, as I can absolutely help you with a “TBD” underwrite!

Mortgage Options for Newly Self Employed Borrowers

August 10, 2019 / Tom Bonetto

Self-employed mortgage applicants must prove stability of employment and income, traditionally going back at least two years. This regulation is a bit tougher than it is for regular salaried employees.

Traditionally, mortgage lenders have required two years federal income tax returns in securing a mortgage for purchasing or refinancing real estate.

Fortunately, there is a way to use just one year of tax returns to qualify for a mortgage.

This can help newer business owners, as well as those who experienced a down year in the past.

Introducing Two-X Flex 1-Year

Finance of America Mortgage has a new, proprietary product that drastically reduces the amount of documents and simplifies qualification.

Two-X Flex 1-year requires only one year of income documentation and offers borrowers more flexibility in qualifying for a mortgage.

Product Details

1-year of income documentation used for qualifying
Wage earner and self-employed borrowers
Up to 90% loan-to-value with no mortgage insurance
As low as 640 minimum FICO
$100,000 minimum loan amount
Up to $3,000,000 maximum loan amount
30 year fixed
5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 ARM –fully amortizing and interest only
Primary Residence, Second Homes, Investment Properties
Up to 50% debt-to-income ratio
1-2 units, PUD and warrantable condos

In order to utilize this one-year requirement, it’s important to understand that your tax return must reflect a full year of self-employment income.

For example, if you became self-employed in April 2017, that year’s tax returns are not going to reflect a full year. If you started your business in November 2016, then your 2018 tax returns will demonstrate a full year of experience running your business.

Give me a call to find out more – as there are multiple alternatives that we can examine!

Category: Mortgage (Page 33 of 60)

Mortgage Interest Rates and The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee

The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage rates

The Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates

Fixed Mortgage Rates vs. Treasury Yields

What the Fed Says Impacts Mortgage Rates…and Bond Prices

Economic Turbulence on the Horizon – Recession, Rates, and Real Estate

Recessionary Indicators

Mortgage Rates During Recession

Real Estate During Recession

In Closing

Which Is Better: Cash-Out Refinance or a HELOC?

The “Cash-Out” Refinance

The Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

Key Differentiators

HELOC Pros and Cons

Refinance Pros and Cons

In Conclusion

A True Mortgage Approval Before a Purchase – The “TBD” Underwrite

How does that work?

What’s the downside?

What’s the advantage?

In Conclusion

Mortgage Options for Newly Self Employed Borrowers

Introducing Two-X Flex 1-Year

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