When it comes to refinancing your mortgage, timing isn’t just important—it’s everything.
The chart above of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield shows a clear pattern: rates dip only occasionally, and those dips are often short-lived.
The highlighted yellow sections mark the moments when interest rates were at their lowest, and each time, the opportunity lasted only briefly before rates bounced higher.
Missing that window could mean paying thousands more in interest over the life of your loan.
Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator for mortgage rates. While the two aren’t identical, they move in the same direction.
Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve and do not closely follow the federal funds rate in the short term.
When Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates usually follow—making these rare dips the sweet spot for locking in a lower rate. The challenge is that the market doesn’t send out a “last call” before it shifts. Rates tend to drift lower over time, but they can spike back up overnight.
That’s why being prepared before the dip happens is crucial.
Today’s Rates
Right now, we’re in a market where rates have been easing slightly. If they dip just a little more, it could create one of those rare refinancing windows for those with mortgages done in the last 3 years—whether for your primary home or an investment property.
But history tells us those windows don’t stay open for long. Waiting until rates hit bottom before starting your refinance process often means you’re already too late.
Beware Unwanted Solicitations
You may also notice that during these periods, you’ll get calls, texts, or emails from other lenders—or even your current loan servicer—promising incredibly low rates.
Many of those “too good to be true” offers come with fine print or hidden conditions. Sometimes, the rate being advertised isn’t even available to you based on your profile.
My role is to cut through the noise and guide you toward the right move at the right time, with terms that truly benefit you.
Get Ready Now
The smartest way to capture one of these brief dips is to be ready in advance. That means putting together or updating your application, pulling any needed documentation, and having your financial picture up to date.
This way, when the market hits that sweet spot, we can move instantly to lock in the best rate—before it disappears. Think of it like a runner crouched at the starting line, ready to sprint the moment the gun fires.
If we prepare now, you won’t need to scramble when the market moves. We’ll already have everything in place to take advantage of the opportunity.
This preparation could save you not only money on your monthly payment but also tens of thousands over the life of your mortgage. And for investors, locking in a lower rate means improved cash flow and a stronger long-term return on your property.
The Bottom Line
Refinancing is all about timing, and timing is about preparation. The dips in the market happen quickly and without warning.
By reaching out to me today, we can position you to act decisively when the next one arrives. Don’t leave your savings to chance—let’s get ready now so that when the right moment comes, you’ll be first in line to benefit.
If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
