There’s a lot of energy right now in the media and the real estate world around one question: How do you navigate buying and selling homes (primary residences, second homes, or investment properties) when interest rates are in the mid-6s?
The most common version of that question is: “Should I wait for rates to come down?” The underlying assumption seems plain — lower rates mean lower cost on the loan…but it’s truly not that simple.
I’ve covered this topic before in podcasts and blog posts, but the conversation keeps coming up, so I want to dig into it with a real-world example and some clear numbers.
A Quick but Important Disclaimer
The interest rates I use below are samples only. I am not advertising them, not suggesting they are available today, and not inviting anyone to call me expecting these exact rates. They are simply tools to illustrate how to evaluate the decision of waiting versus buying now.
I’m also using a conventional conforming 30-year fixed loan (Fannie or Freddie) with an 80% loan-to-value ratio, so there is no mortgage insurance in the example. The principles hold either way.
Why the Interest Rate Alone Is Not the Full Story
Most people focus almost exclusively on the rate. That’s understandable, but incomplete.
When I evaluate the true cost of a loan, one of the most important numbers I look at is the principal balance remaining at years 5, 7, and 10 (sometimes year 3 depending on the situation).
Why? Because it is near a statistical certainty that the average loan in the United States is retired—through sale or refinance—somewhere between years 7 and 10. Very few people take a 30-year mortgage all the way to term.
During those early years, the vast majority of each payment is interest. Lenders know this. Most of the public does not.
If we accept that the loan will likely be refinanced or paid off in that window, then the remaining principal balance becomes a critical part of the overall cost equation.
The question is not simply “What is my payment for the next few years?” It is “How do I own this home in the shortest effective duration possible?”
A Concrete Example
Let’s assume a $500,000 home with 20% down—a $400,000 loan.
- Buy today at a sample rate of 6.75%. Five years later, the remaining principal balance is approximately $375,503.
Now suppose your gut tells you rates will drop by half a percentage point within a year to 6.25%. You wait.
In that year, the home appreciates 3% (I’ll address appreciation in a moment), so the new purchase price requires a loan of about $412,000.
- Buy one year from now at 6.25%. Five years after that purchase (six years from today), the remaining principal balance is approximately $384,549.
From a principal-balance perspective alone, you would have been better off buying today at the higher rate.
What About Home Appreciation?
Across the country, the best current estimates for national average home-price appreciation this year land somewhere in the 1.5%–3% range. Prices have been relatively stable and continue to rise in many markets.
Are there neighborhoods where values are flat or declining? Absolutely—especially certain pockets inside large metropolitan areas. That is why you need a strong real estate agent who can speak in numbers, not just anecdotes. Ask them:
- What has this specific property or neighborhood done historically?
- What do the data suggest for the next 12 months?
Historically, year-over-year depreciation is rare, but it can happen. Even if you believe values will decline, a competent lender can run the same model with a negative appreciation assumption so you can see the math clearly.
Other Costs That Often Matter More Than the Rate
Waiting for rates also means giving up the negotiating environment we have today. Inventories have improved. The market is slower. Sellers are more willing to offer concessions. Competitive bidding is far less intense than it was a few years ago.
Here’s a practical tip many buyers overlook:
If a seller offers, say, $10,000 in concessions, in many cases, the smarter move is not to use that money to buy down the rate. Instead, have the seller cover a large portion of your closing costs, take a slightly higher rate from the lender (which generates a lender credit), and then use the net cash advantage to increase your down payment or shorten the term while keeping the payment roughly the same.
If you still believe rates will fall later, this approach can leave you in a stronger position to refinance. The decision is nuanced. A blanket “I’m waiting for rates to drop” is, in many (if not most) cases, a costly gut-level choice rather than an analytical one.
What You Should Do Next
Mortgage and real-estate decisions are subtle. They require a team that can run the numbers.
- Work with a real estate agent who can discuss both experience and data on current values, historical performance, and reasonable expectations for the next year.
- Work with a lender who can build simple but solid models that incorporate rate scenarios, appreciation (or depreciation), remaining principal balances, closing-cost credits, and term options.
If your lender cannot or will not do that kind of math, find one who will. In a higher-rate environment, the analytical work becomes more important, not less.
When rates were 2.75%, the risk profile was different. Rates in the mid-6s still demand clear-eyed analysis alongside gut feel.
Let’s Talk
I hope this discussion helps you think more clearly about the true cost of waiting.
If you’re trying to figure out whether a particular house or refinance makes sense in this market, do contact me. I’m happy to run the numbers, walk through the trade-offs, and help you see the full picture.
Reach out to me directly—I’d love to talk strategy and explore how we can best take advantage of market conditions to help you succeed.
As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
