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Tag: housing affordability

Housing Market Forecast in Today’s Coronavirus Economy

houses

Everyone is rightly concerned about the Coronavirus – as well as its impact on the economy and on housing.

red X with covid 19 being crossed out

But before the Coronavirus took hold, housing was very strong, with both new construction data and existing home sales at 13-year highs.

Believe it or not, we expect the strength to resume in housing when things get better, and I’m quite confident they will get better!

Sure, there might be a slower period as we practice social distancing, but most experts believe that when the economy comes back, it’s going to come back strong.

Did you know affordability is actually improving in the United States? You can find out more on that here…

In addition to that, homes are valued quite fairly; they’re not overpriced…and home appreciation has been steady and sustainable (more on that here…)

man holding a house key

Look at this metric: when you take annual rents, the value of a home is about 17 times what annual rents would be. The historical average is 16, so we’re right there.

The peak was 24 times annual rents and we’re nowhere near that level! And if you take a look at replacement costs, home values are 1.59 times the cost to replace the home. The 40-year average is 1.58. It’s nowhere near the peak of roughly 2.

We can expect housing to come back very strong and this may be a great opportunity to buy that home you were looking for and benefit from it well into the future.

Please do reach out to me for more information and to set up your strategy!

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Homes Are MORE Affordable Today – Not Less

You might be seeing in the press or hearing from others that owning a home today is less affordable than it has been in the past.  Sure, home prices have increased over the last five years and current inventory is tight.

However, that narrative is completely wrong, when you look at the data. Now is the most affordable buying a home has been in the last 30 years.

I’m linking to an article from Caety James at Keeping Current Matters that outlines some of the reasons.  You can find the article in its entirety here…

Low Mortgage Rates a Key Driver

James writes: “Homes, in most cases, are purchased with a mortgage. The current mortgage rate is a major component of the affordability equation. Mortgage rates have fallen by over a full percentage point since December 2018. Another major piece of the affordability equation is a buyer’s income. The median family income has risen by approximately 3% over the last year.”

Just take a look a the National Association of Realtors “Housing Affordability Index” – it shows that home affordability is better today than nearly any point over the last 30 years!

Potential buyers really should take the time to find out why now is the time to make that purchase.

Payment as Percentage of Income

The report on the index also calculates the mortgage payment on a median priced home as a percentage of the median national income. Historically, that percentage is just above 21%. Here are the percentages since June of 2018:

Again, we can see that affordability is much better today than the historical average and has been getting better over the last year and a half.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking about buying your first home or contemplating a vacation home or investment property, don’t let the false narrative about affordability prevent you from moving forward.

From an affordability standpoint, this is truly one of the best times to buy in the last 30 years.  Please do reach out to me to find out more and how I can help!

Rising Interest Rates Aren’t Deterring Buyers

Mortgage interest rates have risen consistently over the last year-and-a-half. At that time, rates for the 30-year fixed were just under 4%. Lately, the average is closing in on 5% percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Let’s take a look at the facts and crunch the numbers. You’ll likely find that minor rate fluctuations won’t affect a buyer’s ability to purchase a home

Despite these rising mortgage rates, there’s good news:

  • Rising mortgage rates don’t have to stifle the buyer’s dream of owning
  • In fact, a new study by Redfin shows that rising rates aren’t scaring off many shoppers
  • Rates remain historically very affordable, even if they are a bit higher today

Source: You can find out more here – by reading Erik Martin’s entire piece at The Mortgage Reports

What the research found on interest rates and purchasing patterns

A recent survey of potential buyers by Redfin reveals some interesting findings:

  • Only one in 20 would call off their search if rates rose above 5 percent
  • One in four said such an increase would have no impact on their search
  • Nineteen percent would increase their urgency to find a home before further rate increases
  • Twenty-one percent would look in other areas or search for a more affordable home
  • One-third would slow down their search to see if rates came back down

This means that many buyers understand the environment today – and realize the long-term benefits of home ownership.

How to read the data

Taylor Marr, senior economist at Redfin, says these results are telling.

“Only a small share of buyers will scrap their plans to buy a home if rates surpass 5 percent. This reflects their determination to be a part of the housing market,” he notes.

Marr says buyers are well aware that rising mortgage rates mean slightly higher monthly payments. Yet buyers are willing to make compromises, as they understand that actual wages are higher today, making the purchase more affordable. Also, they know that real estate generally appreciates.  Finally, today’s rates remain very low, compared to historical norms.

“By historical terms, 5 percent mortgages are not that high. A rate below 7 percent is really a good deal on long-term money,” Joshua Harris, clinical assistant professor of real estate at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, says. “Plus, rents are generally high. So even at 5 percent, many buyers will still be saving money on monthly housing costs.”

What buyers can do now

Most experts recommend the following steps:

Buy now if you can afford it – “While rates are going up, so are home prices in most markets,” says Harris. “The job market is great. Many are seeing wage growth in many sectors. These forces will push rates up and give people more money to spend on a house. So waiting can be a very costly decision if you need a house and don’t want to rent.”

Get your financial house together – start the pre-approval process and get qualified for a loan. “Ask questions and understand the monthly payments you’ll need to make,” suggests Suzanne Hollander, real estate attorney, broker and Florida International University instructor. Will your income be able to cover the principal, interest, taxes and insurance? Will it provide enough money to live the lifestyle you prefer?”

Don’t sweat a minor rate hike – “So long as you intend to hold the home for at least five years, these small fluctuations shouldn’t affect your decision to buy,” Harris adds.

With economic gains outpacing mortgage rate interest rates in many markets, you may be better able to buy a home today than at any time over the last 10 years. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me and find out more!

Housing Affordability Still High – Even With Increasing Prices

Despite rising home prices, American housing is actually quite affordable – and now is really a good time to make that purchase.

Housing affordability is measured by comparing household income relative to the income needed to purchase a home.

According to the latest Real House Price Index from First American Title, today’s home buyers have “historically high levels of house-purchasing power.”

Read the entire article from Amy Yale at the Mortgage Reports here.

Affordability crisis ‘over-stated’

According to Mark Fleming, First American’s chief economist, “talk of an affordability crisis is over-stated.” In fact, consumer house-buying power – how much home someone can buy based on average income, interest rate and home price – is actually up over the year.

Ms. Yale in her article notes that home-buying power rose by nearly a full percent from November 2016 to November 2017.

And though real home prices increased 5 percent over the year, they’re still 37.7 percent below their 2006 peak. They’re also more than 16 percent below 2000’s numbers.

Because mortgage rates are lower than historical averages, home-buying power is up, according to First American’s Fleming.

“In fact, consumer house-buying power is 2.3 times higher than it was in 2000, almost two decades ago,” he said. “It’s also only 2.9 percent below the peak in July 2016. Because the long-run trend in mortgage interest rates has been downward, from a peak of 18 percent in 1981, the housing market has benefited from consistently increasing house-buying power”

He continues, “Home buyers today have historically high levels of house-purchasing power, and that’s one important reason why, even as unadjusted house price growth exceeds household income growth, the talk of an affordability crisis is over-stated for now.”

The Solution

One of the great underlying opportunities today is that buying a home is considerably cheaper than renting. Renters interested in reducing expenses and collecting tax benefits should absolutely talk to a mortgage lender prior to signing that next rental contract.

Contact me for more information, as it would be my pleasure to help!

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