Tag: inflation (Page 1 of 2)

The Lending Coach 2026 Forecast: A Deeper Look at the Economy, Rates, and Real Estate

January 9, 2026 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

As each year comes to a close, homeowners, buyers, and real estate professionals naturally start looking ahead. The questions are familiar — but the stakes always feel higher.

Where is the economy headed?
Will mortgage rates finally come down?
What does all of this mean for home prices and opportunity in real estate?

Let’s walk step by step through the key forces shaping the year ahead.

Rather than focusing on headlines or short-term noise, this outlook looks at the underlying drivers that influence interest rates, housing demand, and long-term opportunity.

1. The Economics: Inflation, Employment, and the Foundation of the Market

Economic conditions sit at the core of every housing and mortgage decision.

Inflation, employment, and consumer behavior all feed directly into interest rates — and ultimately affordability.

At first glance, inflation appears stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, a deeper look shows that inflation is meaningfully overstated, primarily due to how shelter costs are calculated.

Housing inflation is reported with long delays. Government agencies only survey a portion of the country each month, and rent data often reflects lease agreements signed many months earlier.

Meanwhile, real-time data sources show rents declining across much of the country — a trend that has not yet been fully captured in official inflation reports.

Shelter costs carry enormous weight in inflation metrics:

More than one-third of headline CPI
Nearly half of core CPI

This means even small delays or distortions in housing data can significantly skew inflation readings. When adjusted for these delays — along with temporary factors like tariffs and portfolio fee calculations — true inflation appears much closer to the Fed’s target than reported figures suggest.

In fact, today’s Truflation number is right at 2% as of this writing. More on that here…

At the same time, the labor market is clearly weakening. Job openings have steadily declined, private payroll data has shown multiple months of job losses, and unemployment continues to trend higher.

Initial jobless claims may appear low, but they no longer tell the full story. In today’s gig-based economy, many displaced workers turn to alternative income sources rather than filing unemployment claims — which understates the true level of labor market stress.

The economic takeaway:
Inflation is cooling faster than headlines suggest, while employment conditions are deteriorating — a combination that historically leads to lower interest rates and policy intervention.

2. The Federal Reserve: Policy Direction and the Shift Toward Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: controlling inflation and maintaining maximum employment.

As inflation pressures ease and labor weakness becomes harder to ignore, the Fed’s priorities naturally begin to shift.

Looking ahead to 2026, several important factors suggest a more accommodative Fed:

A voting composition that leans more dovish
Rising unemployment
Inflation readings that continue to drift lower as shelter data catches up

While most forecasts call for minimal rate cuts in 2026, I actually anticipate a more proactive response. My outlook calls for three quarter-point cuts, bringing the Fed Funds rate down to approximately 2.875%.

This expectation is based on two key assumptions:

Inflation is less threatening than official numbers suggest
The labor market is weaker than widely acknowledged

When those realities become undeniable, the Fed historically acts to prevent deeper economic damage.

Why this matters:
Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its policy decisions heavily influence bond markets, investor confidence, and the cost of borrowing across the economy — all of which feed into mortgage pricing.

3. Mortgage Rates: Understanding the Path to Lower Borrowing Costs

Mortgage rates are primarily driven by two components:

The 10-year Treasury yield
The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities

For 2026, I project the 10-year Treasury reaching a low near 3.85%, supported by:

Slowing economic growth
Lower inflation expectations
Fed rate cuts
Increased demand for bonds

In recent years, mortgage rate spreads widened significantly due to volatility, uncertainty, and reduced demand for mortgage-backed securities. As market confidence improves, these spreads are expected to normalize toward historical ranges.

Historically, mortgage spreads typically fall between 1.6% and 2.0%. While current levels remain elevated, continued normalization could place spreads closer to the middle of that range.

Combining these factors:

A 10-year Treasury near 3.85%
A spread near 1.9%

This supports a projected 30-year fixed mortgage rate around 5.75%, with the potential to move closer to 5.625% if conditions improve further.

For homeowners and buyers:
Lower rates improve affordability, unlock refinancing opportunities, and act as a catalyst for increased housing activity.

4. Real Estate: Supply, Demand, and the Return of Buyer Activity

Housing demand has cooled sharply in response to higher mortgage rates, but this decline should not be confused with a lack of interest in homeownership.

Instead, the market is experiencing pent-up demand — buyers who are financially ready but waiting for affordability to improve.

At the same time, housing supply remains constrained:

Builders have reduced new construction to match slower demand
Inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels when adjusted for population growth
Active listings have risen from historic lows but are now beginning to flatten

As mortgage rates ease, demand is expected to return faster than supply can respond. Builders cannot ramp up production overnight, and existing homeowners remain hesitant to sell unless affordability improves.

This imbalance supports:

Increased transaction volume
Stabilizing inventory
Continued upward pressure on home prices

While appreciation will vary by market, the national picture suggests a return to more typical, sustainable growth rather than the extremes of recent years.

5. The Lending Coach Forecast: What 2026 May Bring

Based on economic trends, policy expectations, and housing fundamentals, my 2026 forecast includes:

Unemployment: Rising toward 4.8%, potentially higher
Core Inflation: Around 2.5%, with true inflation likely closer to 2%
Fed Funds Rate: Approximately 2.875%
Mortgage Rates: A low near 5.75%, with potential to reach 5.625%
Home Price Appreciation: Approximately 3% nationally

These figures represent national averages. Local market conditions — such as job growth, migration, and housing supply — will determine individual outcomes.

Final Thoughts: Strategy Matters More Than Timing

The outlook for 2026 suggests a market transitioning toward greater balance — one where opportunity exists, but smart planning matters more than speculation.

For buyers, lower rates may finally restore affordability.
For homeowners, refinancing opportunities could reemerge.
For long-term investors, steady appreciation continues to support real estate as a wealth-building tool.

a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

Understanding how the economy, Federal Reserve policy, mortgage rates, and housing supply interact allows you to make decisions with confidence — not emotion.

The most successful moves in real estate are rarely about reacting quickly. They’re about preparing thoughtfully and acting when the conditions align.

If you’d like help translating this outlook into a personalized strategy, a focused conversation can help clarify next steps — based on your goals, timeline, and financial picture.

Do reach out directly to me to begin crafting your plan!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

August 25, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

housing market real estate prices business analytics

Let’s dive into a timely economic topic that’s buzzing in real estate circles: how potentially overstated inflation figures could pave the way for favorable conditions in the housing market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025.

This is particularly relevant for real estate agents guiding clients, buyers eyeing their dream home, and sellers looking to capitalize on improving market dynamics.

Let’s break it down step by step, drawing from recent analysis by MBS Highway and current market data.

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are key drivers of Federal Reserve policy, influencing everything from interest rates to mortgage affordability. But here’s the catch: these official numbers might be painting an overly pessimistic picture due to methodological quirks.

According to a recent MBS Highway snippet, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index showed blended rents decelerating to just 2.6% year-over-year in July— a clear sign of cooling in the rental market. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies heavily on imputed data, such as Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which stood at 4.1% in their calculations. OER essentially estimates what homeowners would pay if they rented their own homes, but it’s based on surveys and guesswork rather than real-time transaction data.

When you adjust the Core CPI using Zillow’s more granular, market-based figures and apply the appropriate weightings (shelter costs make up about a third of CPI), the inflation reading drops significantly.

MBS Highway estimates Core CPI is overstated by 0.5%, meaning it would clock in at 2.6% instead of the reported 3.1%. Similarly, Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred gauge— is overstated by 0.2%, landing at 2.6% rather than 2.8%. These adjustments even account for external factors like tariffs, which add some upward pressure but are hard to quantify precisely.

The bottom line? The BLS’s use of lagging, imputed data could be inflating perceptions of economic heat. If policymakers shift toward real-time sources like Zillow’s index, we might see a more accurate (and lower) inflation narrative.

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

This discrepancy matters because it directly ties into the Fed’s actions. With inflation appearing stickier than it might actually be, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been cautious. However, markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17, 2025, meeting— with over 85% odds according to CME FedWatch data.

Economists from firms like J.P. Morgan and Nomura have brought forward their forecasts, expecting this cut amid signs of a softening labor market and broader economic cooling.

Lower federal funds rates typically translate to reduced mortgage rates, making borrowing cheaper. If the Fed acknowledges that inflation is lower than BLS figures suggest (perhaps influenced by real-time data), we could see even more aggressive easing.

This is a game-changer for the real estate sector, where high rates have sidelined many participants in recent years.

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Compounding this opportunity is the steady improvement in housing inventory. As of July 2025, active listings nationwide reached over 1.1 million— up 28.9% year-over-year in June and continuing to surge.

Regions like the West and South are seeing the biggest gains, with increases of 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. This shift toward pre-pandemic levels means more choices for buyers, potentially easing price pressures and creating negotiating leverage.

For real estate buyers: If Zillow’s rent data proves more reflective of true shelter costs, corrected inflation could accelerate rate cuts, lowering your monthly payments.

With inventory climbing, now’s the time to lock in a property before competition heats up. Imagine securing a low-cost mortgage that fits your long-term goals— building equity and wealth for generations.

For sellers: More buyers entering the market due to affordability improvements could mean quicker sales and stronger offers. But don’t wait too long; as inventory grows, the balance might tip further toward buyers.

For agents: Educate your clients on these dynamics. Highlight how overstated inflation might be holding back rate relief, and position September’s Fed decision as a pivotal moment. Tools like Zillow’s real-time insights can help demonstrate market realities beyond official stats.

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

As The Lending Coach, I’m all about transparency and tailoring solutions to your needs.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Arizona, or an agent partnering on deals in California, let’s chat about how a potential rate cut could work in your favor.

I love building relationships over the phone— by reaching out to me today, we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Truflation: A New Lens for Understanding Inflation and Seizing Market Opportunities

July 26, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

As a potential home buyer, investor, or real estate professional, understanding inflation is critical to making informed financial decisions.

As The Lending Coach, I’m committed to helping my clients in Arizona and California build generational wealth through smart mortgage strategies.

One tool gaining attention in the economic landscape is Truflation, a blockchain-based, real-time inflation index that claims to offer a more accurate and timely alternative to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In this post, I’ll explore what Truflation is, evaluate its reliability compared to BLS data, and discuss how borrowers, investors, and real estate agents can leverage this metric to spot market opportunities.

What is “Truflation”?

Truflation is a decentralized, blockchain-based platform that tracks inflation in real time, using over 18 million data points from more than 60 data providers.

Unlike the BLS CPI, which relies on a fixed basket of goods and services and is updated monthly with a 45-day lag, Truflation pulls daily price data for a wide range of consumer goods and services. This allows it to reflect current market conditions more dynamically.

Truflation’s methodology is transparent, auditable, and market-driven, aiming to address perceived shortcomings in traditional inflation metrics, such as outdated frameworks and subjective adjustments.

For example, posts on X have highlighted Truflation’s advantages, noting its use of 15 million data points compared to the BLS’s 80,000, and its real-time updates versus the BLS’s delayed reporting.

Additionally, Truflation avoids “black box” methodologies and centralized control, making it an appealing alternative for those seeking economic transparency.

Is Trueflation More Reliable Than BLS CPI?

The BLS CPI, while widely used, has faced criticism for its limitations. The CPI framework, last significantly updated in 1999, may not fully capture the realities of today’s economy, where e-commerce, electric vehicles, and other modern factors play significant roles.

For instance, the CPI uses “hedonic adjustments” to account for quality improvements, which introduces subjectivity and can understate inflation’s impact. Additionally, the CPI excludes asset prices like real estate and stocks, potentially missing key drivers of wealth and cost-of-living changes.

Truflation, by contrast, offers several advantages:

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

Real-Time Data: Truflation updates daily, providing a near-instantaneous view of price changes, while BLS data lags by weeks. This timeliness can be crucial for anticipating market shifts.
Granular and Transparent: With millions of data points and an auditable blockchain framework, Truflation reduces reliance on subjective adjustments and centralized control.
Correlation with CPI: Despite its differences, Truflation’s inflation measurements have shown a high correlation (0.97 to 0.99) with headline CPI since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, suggesting it’s a credible alternative.

However, Truflation is not without challenges. Its lack of seasonal adjustments and reliance on actual prices without imputation may lead to volatility in its readings.

Additionally, as a newer metric, it lacks the long-term track record and institutional acceptance of the BLS CPI, which remains the Federal Reserve’s primary reference for monetary policy. While some X users argue Truflation is “way more accurate than the market,” its reliability depends on the context and use case.

As The Lending Coach, I specifically value transparency and accuracy, and Truflation’s approach aligns with my commitment to honesty and understanding of my clients’ needs.

While the BLS CPI remains the standard, Truflation’s real-time insights offer a compelling complement for those navigating fast-moving markets.

Market Opportunities for Borrowers and Real Estate Agents

For borrowers, investors, and real estate agents, Truflation’s real-time data can provide a competitive edge in identifying market opportunities, particularly in the housing market. Here’s how:

For Borrowers

Anticipating Interest Rate Trends: Truflation’s ability to signal inflation trends earlier than the BLS CPI can help borrowers anticipate Federal Reserve actions. For example, a post on X noted that Truflation identified a disinflationary trend in December 2024, ahead of the BLS’s confirmation. If Truflation indicates rising inflation, borrowers may want to lock in fixed-rate mortgages sooner to avoid higher interest rates. At Efficient Lending, we guide clients to secure favorable terms early, ensuring affordability in an inflationary environment.
Leveraging Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Inflation benefits borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, as future payments are made with “cheaper” dollars. Truflation’s real-time insights can help borrowers time their applications to capitalize on this dynamic before rates rise.
Wealth-Building Opportunities: Real estate is a proven hedge against inflation, as home values often rise faster than the CPI. Truflation’s data can help borrowers identify periods of accelerating inflation, signaling a strong time to invest in property to build long-term wealth.

For Real Estate Agents and Investors

Market Timing: Truflation’s daily updates allow agents to spot inflationary trends that could affect housing demand and pricing. For instance, if Truflation signals rising inflation, agents can advise clients to act quickly before higher mortgage rates reduce affordability.
Rental Market Insights: During inflationary periods, rental prices tend to rise due to increased demand and limited supply. Truflation’s granular data can help agents identify markets where rental demand is surging, enabling them to guide investor clients toward high-return opportunities.
Client Education: Agents can use Truflation’s transparent data to educate clients about market conditions, building trust through clear, data-driven advice. This aligns with Efficient Lending’s value of explaining the nuances of mortgage and real estate decisions to empower clients.

Recent Results and Context

As of July 2025, Truflation reported a U.S. inflation rate of 1.82%, compared to the BLS CPI’s 2.7% for the 12 months ending June.

This discrepancy suggests Truflation may detect deflationary or disinflationary trends faster than the BLS, potentially giving borrowers and agents an early warning to adjust strategies.

For example, a lower Truflation rate could signal a window to secure lower mortgage rates before the market catches up.

How The Lending Coach Can Help

I believe in building lasting relationships based on trust, transparency, and education.

Whether you’re a borrower looking to secure a mortgage that fits your unique needs or a real estate agent seeking to guide clients through a dynamic market, I’m here to help.

By staying informed about tools like Truflation, I can provide timely advice to help you capitalize on market opportunities and build generational wealth through real estate.

To learn more about how inflation trends affect your mortgage or real estate strategy, please do reach out to me here…

Ready to take the next step? You can set up an appointment with me here…

Sources:

Truflation.com
Bureau of Labor Statistics
GIS Reports Online
Arrived.com
Investopedia
Posts on X

Tariffs, Inflation, The Fed…and Mortgage Rates

May 12, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

tariffs and trade usa and china relations

There’s a good deal of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and what they will do to the economy – especially mortgage rates.

In today’s global economy, tariffs—taxes on imported goods—are an important tool used by governments to influence trade and protect domestic industries. When a country, such as the United States, imposes tariffs on products from other nations, it can affect not just the prices of those goods but also the broader economy.

brown and black beans in clear glass jar

One of the key areas impacted by tariffs is inflation, which is closely monitored and managed by the Federal Reserve.

Understanding how tariffs influence inflation helps explain how they complicate the Federal Reserve’s role in keeping the economy stable.

What Are Tariffs and Why Are They Used?

Tariffs are used by governments to make imported goods more expensive, with the goal of encouraging consumers to buy domestically produced products instead.

For example, if the U.S. imposes a tariff on foreign-made steel, American steel becomes more competitive in price.

While this might help U.S. manufacturers, it also raises the cost of materials for other businesses that rely on imported goods, leading to higher prices for finished products.

Tariffs and Consumer Prices

When companies have to pay more to import goods, those increased costs often get passed along to consumers.

This leads to higher prices for everyday items like electronics, clothing, and food. These price increases contribute to inflation, which is the general rise in the cost of living.

Tariffs can also raise production costs for businesses, which can then slow economic growth or cause companies to cut jobs to balance their budgets.

What Is Inflation and Why Does It Matter?

Inflation refers to the rate at which prices for goods and services rise over time. A low-to-moderate level of inflation is normal and can signal a healthy economy.

However, when inflation rises too quickly, it can erode purchasing power and lead to uncertainty in the market. People may struggle to afford necessities, and businesses might delay investment. That’s why inflation control is one of the primary responsibilities of the Federal Reserve.

You can find out more about inflation and mortgage rates here…

The Role of the Federal Reserve

One of the Fed’s key jobs is to manage inflation and promote stable prices by adjusting interest rates and using other monetary policy tools.

When inflation rises, the Fed often raises interest rates to slow down spending and borrowing.

Conversely, when inflation is too low, the Fed may lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Tariffs can interfere with this balance by introducing unexpected upward pressure on prices.

How Tariffs Complicate the Fed’s Decisions

When inflation is driven by tariffs rather than strong consumer demand, it creates a challenge for the Federal Reserve. If the Fed raises interest rates in response to tariff-driven inflation, it could unintentionally slow the economy or increase unemployment.

However, if it does nothing, inflation might continue to rise. This puts the Fed in a difficult position, having to choose between fighting inflation or supporting growth—two goals that can conflict when tariffs are involved.

Real-World Examples

Recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports have demonstrated these effects. Following the trade war between the U.S. and China, prices rose for goods like washing machines, electronics, and industrial materials.

Inflation increased in some sectors, and businesses adjusted by either raising prices or cutting costs.

The Federal Reserve had to carefully analyze these developments when making decisions about interest rates and monetary policy during that time.

Inflation, Mortgage Rates, and Treasury Yields

Mortgage rates are primarily driven by inflation, which erodes the buying power of the fixed return that a mortgage holder receives. When inflation rises, lenders demand a higher interest rate to offset the more rapid erosion of their buying power.

Fixed mortgage rates and Treasury yields tend to move together because fixed-income investors compare the returns they can get on government and mortgage-backed securities.

Investors compare yields on long-term Treasuries to mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds. All bond yields (including mortgage backed securities) are affected by Treasury yields, because they compete for the same type of investor.

Mortgages, in turn, offer a higher return for more risk. Investors purchase securities backed by the value of the home loans—so-called mortgage-backed securities.

When Treasury yields rise, investors in mortgage-backed securities demand higher rates. They want compensation for the greater risk.

What Really Causes Rates to Rise and Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of economic factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types.

Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Although in our current situation, inflation (and the Fed’s fear of it) is the number one cause. When this is coupled with the large increase in government spending and tariff uncertainty, you see a double dose of fear in the markets.

Conclusion

These are some very interesting economic times, indeed…and not easy for monetary policy specialists.

The Fed must carefully evaluate whether inflation is being driven by consumer demand or by policy decisions like tariffs.

As global trade tensions continue to influence markets, the relationship between tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve remains a critical area of economic concern – and these will all impact mortgage rates.

All of these factors are causing uncertainty in the marketplace, and have negatively impacted mortgage rates in the last month. With that said, inflation really is the key driver…and if those readings come down, mortgage rates will, too.

Do reach out to me to discuss what’s happening in the marketplace and how you might be able to take advantage!

Why Mortgage Rates Are Staying Stubbornly High…and What Does The Future Hold?

April 22, 2024 / Tom Bonetto

Mortgage interest rates are staying higher than initially anticipated, due to the staying power of inflation today.

Inflation is a terrible thing for prosperous, economic growth…and it significantly impacts mortgage rates for the worst.

Today, we are seeing the impact of stubbornly sticky inflation in the mortgage marketplace – and relief doesn’t appear to be coming in the near term.

The most recent inflation data showed prices rising by 3.5% year-over-year in March, which exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Why Does This Happen?

Rising inflation shrinks buying power as prices of goods and services increase. Higher prices can then influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, affecting the cost of borrowing for lending products like mortgages.

inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. As the cost of living rises, the value of each dollar decreases, leading to a decline in the real value of mortgage payments. Hence, mortgage lenders must charge more in interest to make the same profit.

Then, as inflation cools, mortgage interest rates can be expected to ease as well.

The Federal Reserve and the 10-Year Treasury Note

When inflation rises, the Federal Reserve banks has respond by tightening monetary policy to control inflationary pressures. This involves raising the federal funds rates to reduce borrowing and spending, thereby slowing down economic growth and inflation.

At this point, this strategy hasn’t worked nearly as well as expected.

More importantly, the Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. Instead, the central bank sets the federal funds rate target, the interest rate that banks lend money to one another overnight. A Fed increase in this short-term interest rate often pushes up long-term interest rates for U.S. Treasuries.

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, which are government-issued bonds that mature in a decade. When the 10-year Treasury yield increases, the 30-year mortgage rate tends to do the same.

Short Term Outlook

The average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed is 7.12%, nearly double its 3.22% level in early 2022.

“There is some optimism for rate cuts, however, we were forecasting three to four rate cuts in 2024 at the beginning of the year, and it now is unlikely. People are now adjusting those expectations down to two,” says Ali Nassirian, vice president of consumer & home lending at Travis Credit Union.

“Looking at the current data, there’s roughly a 50% chance we’ll see a rate cut in June,” Nassirian adds.

As little as two weeks ago, there was generally a greater optimism that the Fed would start rate cuts in June. However, that now seems to many like a hopeful start date.

There’s also a good chance that mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged for the remainder of 2024.

“I don’t see a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. I think June would be the soonest cut we see. Even if they cut rates two or three times this year, I don’t think we will see many moves in the mortgage market from those,” says Brian Durham, vice president of risk management and managing broker at Realty Group LLC.

“The things that will have a bigger impact on the mortgage markets will be things like the Fed’s quantitative tightening policy, job numbers, and other inflationary or deflationary variables like the cost of oil,” Durham adds.

You can find out more here from Jake Safane at MoneyWatch…

In Conclusion

Mortgage rate forecasts vary depending on the expert you ask, but the overall consensus seems to be that there won’t be significant decreases in the near future. With that said, conditions can change, as recent expectations of rate cuts so far in 2024 have not come to to pass.

It’s actually possible that we’ll even see mortgage interest rates rise if inflation persists.

So, some buyers might prefer to act now, rather than waiting for however long it might take for mortgage rates to become more favorable, if at all.

Please do reach out to me to discuss how to make the best mortgage and purchasing decisions in today’s environment.