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Mortgage Rate Update – March 2022

white android tablet turned on displaying a graph

Mortgage interest rates just keep moving higher.  They have risen nearly 1.5% points since January 3rd… and it seems like almost every day rates move up again.

Money Laid Out of Desk

The outlook for lower rates isn’t great right now, thanks mostly to the Federal Reserve’s handling of the money supply and out-of-control inflation.

How will the Fed’s recently announced quarter point hike to the Fed Funds Rate affect mortgage interest rates?  The answer may surprise you.

The Federal Reserve

The Fed Funds Rate is not the same as a mortgage rate because it can change from one day to another, while mortgage rates can be in effect for 30 years. More on that here….

Warning Sign Showing an Arrow Labeled Inflation

Mortgage rates are primarily driven by inflation, which erodes the buying power of the fixed return that a mortgage holder receives.  When inflation rises, lenders demand a higher interest rate to offset the more rapid erosion of their buying power.

You probably know that inflation has been rising significantly of late, and as a result, so have mortgage rates.  Inflation is pushing 9%, the highest level we’ve seen in over 40 years.  This has moved mortgage rates into the mid 4% range this week.

Essentially, The Federal Reserve has bungled their management of inflation and now have to make severe changes to offset the damage.  This brings market instability and increased mortgage rates.

When the Fed hikes rates, they are trying to slow the economy and curb inflation. If successful in cooling inflation, mortgage rates will decline.  History proves this during rate hike cycles for the past 50 years.  Unfortunately, this isn’t an overnight fix.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

However, the Fed may also reduce its holdings of Mortgage Bonds, which can cause some interest rate volatility.  And if inflation continue to surge, the Fed might not be able to do much to help.  The situation isn’t great at this moment.

30-year fixed mortgage rates

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 4.53 percent, up 20 basis points over the last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower, at 4.17 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay $503.13 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $7.08 higher compared with last week.

Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields – a great barometer

Fixed mortgage rates and Treasury yields tend to move together because fixed-income investors compare the returns they can get on government and mortgage-backed securities. 

Investors compare yields on long-term Treasuries to mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds. All bond yields (including mortgage backed securities) are affected by Treasury yields, because they compete for the same type of investor.

Mortgages, in turn, offer a higher return for more risk. Investors purchase securities backed by the value of the home loans—so-called mortgage-backed securities. When Treasury yields rise, investors in mortgage-backed securities demand higher rates. They want compensation for the greater risk. 

You can dig deeper by reading Kimberly Amadeo’s article here…

You can see the rise in the 10-year treasury yield here…and mortgage rates have been following a nearly identical course over the last 3 months.

Graph of Treasury Yield from Dec 27 to Mar 21

What Really Causes Rates to Rise and Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of economic factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types.

Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.  Although in our current situation, inflation (and the Fed’s mismanagement of it) is the number one cause.  When this is coupled with the large increase in government spending, you see a double dose of fear in the markets.

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

In today’s case, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On March 16, the Fed announced that it expects to begin reducing its balance sheet in May, meaning it will start reducing the overall amount of bonds it owns. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

You can find out more here from Investopedia….

Most experts agree that this “taper” will also move treasury yields and mortgage rates higher.

Moving Forward

There may come a point when mortgage rates drop back down and borrowers can enjoy some of the remarkably low rates they were available from mid-2020 through late 2021.

And throughout 2022, we could have periods when rates dip to some degree.

But for the most part, borrowers may need to come to terms with the fact that the days of record-low borrowing are behind us.

With that said, it’s important to put today’s rates into perspective. Compared to the rates we saw from mid-2020 through the end of 2021, the rates above look high. But historically speaking, locking in a 30-year mortgage anywhere in the 4% range is not a bad deal at all.

Graph of Mortgage Rates from 1972-2020

Would you like to find out more?  Contact me to discuss your current situation and how you might be able to take advantage of today’s market.  It would be my pleasure to help you!

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The Latest on Interest Rates for 2018 and 2019

The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate last month by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The Fed has indicated that there will most likely be two more rate hikes this year.

Most financial experts expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least 3 times in 2019, as well.

Mortgage interest rates don’t necessarily move in step with the federal funds rate, as they are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury Bond. So, borrowers today looking to get a mortgage aren’t directly affected by the latest Fed hike.

However, the federal funds rate does contribute to the longer-term trends of the 10-year Treasury, and long-term fixed mortgages as a result.

With the Fed likely lifting rates multiple times over the next couple of years, the trend for long-term mortgage rates is up. 

Many experts are forecasting that mortgage rates could move near the 6% range sometime in 2019.

Why is the Federal Reserve raising rates?

Well, it’s a bit complicated, but there are some very good reasons – and they are all designed to help foster stable, economic growth.

‘Quantitative Tightening’

Between 2009 and 2014, the US Federal Reserve created $3.5 trillion during three phases of what was called “Quantitative Easing”.  It was the Federal Reserve’s response to help reduce the dramatic market swings created by the recession about 10 years ago.

This seems to have helped the economy avert disaster, but their impacts were far from ideal. Nonetheless, the economy slowly lifted off as consumers rebuilt their balance sheets and asset values rose.

Today, the Fed is slowly reversing this stimulus program. They’re raising short-term rates and shrinking their bond and mortgage back securities portfolio.

The consensus thinking is that the Federal Reserve members fear that inflation will take hold if they keep interest rates artificially low.

Historically, when the bonds owned by the Fed mature, they simply reinvested the proceeds into new bonds.  It essentially keeps the size of the balance sheet stable, while having very little impact on the market.

However, when quantitative tightening began in October of 2017, the Fed started slowing down these reinvestments, allowing its balance sheet to gradually shrink.

In theory, through unwinding its balance sheet slowly by just allowing the bonds it owns to mature, the Fed can attempt to mitigate the fear of what might happen to yields if it was to ever try and sell such a large amount of bonds directly.

Essentially, the Federal Reserve is changing the supply and demand curve and the result is a higher yield in the 10-year treasury note.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation is beginning to inch up as the labor market continues to improve. Most indicators suggest inflation has been climbing in recent months. If you look at both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, you will see the trends.

This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices, and increased employment.

Rising inflation is a threat to government bond investors because it chips away at the purchasing power of their fixed interest payments. As mentioned earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is watched particularly closely because it is a bedrock of global finance. It is key in influencing borrowing rates for consumers, businesses and state and local governments.

Positive labor and economic news keeps coming in (as predicted over the last 6 months), and the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

What It All Means

So, it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage interest rates overall. These increases do look to be gradual for the time being, but consistent and into 2019, for sure.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at nearly 6%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home!

Secondly, home buying power is still extraordinarily high, despite rising home prices and rate hikes. Find out more about that here.

In reality, now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

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