My 2024 real estate and mortgage rate forecast centers specifically around supply and demand…of both real estate and mortgage backed securities. As we know, all prices are determined by supply and demand.
Right now, housing supply is relatively low, and demand is growing – and that means home price appreciation.
On the mortgage side, will interest rates finally come back?
Well, inflation is the biggest driver of interest rates…and that seems to be finally coming down to manageable levels – and this should lead to lower rates moving forward!
Let’s take a look at the factors that will impact mortgage rates and real estate in 2024…
Inflation
The single biggest driver of bond yields AND mortgage rates is inflation.
Mortgage rates are essentially driven by inflation, which erodes the buying power of the fixed return that a mortgage holder receives. When inflation rises, lenders demand a higher interest rate to offset the more rapid erosion of that buying power.
When the Fed hikes rates, they are trying to slow the economy and curb inflation. If successful in cooling inflation, mortgage rates will decline.
History proves this during rate hike cycles for the past 50 years, per the slide below. Unfortunately, this isn’t an overnight fix.
Essentially, the Federal Reserve bungled their management of inflation in 2020 and 2021 and were forced to make severe changes to offset the damage. This brings market instability and increased mortgage rates.
Fortunately, inflation does seem to be coming down (and that’s primarily why rates are better today than they were in October of 2023. And the news on the horizon looks promising.
It looks like core inflation might be in the 2% range by the middle of this year, which bodes very well for lower mortgage rates:
The trend in inflation is working in the borrower’s favor, and it means the Fed’s going to have to look at cutting the Federal Funds rate in 2024.
You can find out more on inflation, The Federal Reserve, and mortgage rates here…
The Fed and Rate Cuts
The Fed said they’re going to start cutting before we get to 2% core inflation. I think there’s a good probability March 20th, we’ll get the first Fed rate cut, and certainly by May 1st.
Now, what does the market say on this?
Well, there’s odds-makers. Just like if you were to go take a look on DraftKings and see what the odds are on a football game, well, there’s odds-makers on what the Fed will do as well.
As you can see above, the chances are pretty much assured that by May we’ll get that first rate cut.
In fact, there’s pretty good odds that we’ll have multiple rate cuts by May and June.
Per the chart above, there’s a 56% chance of at least 50 basis points cumulatively and by June there’s a 53% chance, better than 50-50, that you will have three 25 basis point cuts by June 12th.
Now something that’s also very important to watch is the Fed’s balance sheet. The supply of mortgage-backed securities has been hurting rates through most of 2023 because the Fed reducing its balance sheet.
They had their balance sheet go up during the great financial crisis and it got up much higher during the COVID crisis to a point of $8.5 trillion. That was just too much buying on behalf of the Fed.
The chart above shows their outright holdings of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities and they’ve offloaded $1.4 trillion over the last 18 months or so. That’s been a big driver in mortgage rates…and rates started to rise because the market had to absorb all of these securities.
But recently interest rates have improved and that is because the expectation for lower rates is causing banks to be aggressively buying treasuries and locking the higher rates in anticipation that rates go lower.
So, let’s take a look at what the Fed might be comfortable with on their balance sheet. That will be critical, because the Fed is going to slow down or eventually stop that runoff and stop that added supply of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on the market.
As we go through each month, you can see that as we get into March, right before the March 20th meeting from the Fed, it will most likely be below 25%. I believe that’s too high of a number for the Fed to be comfortable and they’d like it to be lower.
When you start to see what happens the second half of the year, you get to a level that the Fed is much more comfortable with and I believe that the Fed will stop their quantitative tightening and reverse course.
The Fed’s balance sheet will be a critical component because less supply on the market means that interest rates should improve because the buyers will be bidding on fewer amount of paper or supply that’s available.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
So what’s the mortgage rate forecast for 2024?
Well, for 2024, I see 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the mid-fives (later in the year) to high-six range (early in the year). Under 6% rate on mortgages should unlock move of buyers and create more activity.
The 10-year Treasury will fluctuate between 3% and 4.4%, as we are starting the year a little above 4%. I believe that the overall trend, while it might move up and down a little bit, will be to gravitate towards 3%, which is good news for mortgage rates.
And maybe we get a more normal return to the spreads between Treasuries and mortgage rates, which is around 2%, not 3%. So that should help mortgage rates reduce as well.
Real Estate Forecast
Let’s turn our attention to real estate.
The forecast for real estate centers again on supply and demand, and the supply is tight. Look at inventory over the last 10 years, how it continues to decline while our population goes up:
Demand is continuing to be very, very strong. The blue lines represent households being formed.
As you can see, there are far more households being formed than builders putting up homes. This is why the real estate market’s been so strong of late and why you we seeing prices increase due to a lack of inventory. It’s going to be a similar story for 2024.
We won’t see much more inventory, although we will see more activity. But, we don’t see the amount of supply coming to market in order to meet that demand. So that’s why prices should stay firm.
I’m forecasting between 4.5% and 5% home appreciation nationwide.
But, perhaps even a greater importance while we have a very solid real estate valuation market, is that overall real estate transactions should rise by 15% to 20% in 2024. Good news for the economy in general, for sure.
In Conclusion
It’s looking like 2024 should be a much better year for real estate! Do reach out to me to discuss how you might be able to move forward in 2024 to take advantage of this changing market!
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