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Tag: interest rates (Page 5 of 6)

Home Pricing Data Explained: Continued Appreciation Expected

November 11, 2018 /

Many buyers ask me about home prices, interest rates, and if now is a good time to buy.

Some are disappointed that they didn’t make a move 18 months ago and have decided to “wait and see” in hopes that prices and interest rates will actually go down.

The Forecast Data

The graphic shown above is very, very important for current and would-be homeowners, as well as those in the real-estate profession in general.

Home prices are continuing their solid rates of appreciation – and most experts believe they will keep climbing into 2019, although not as rapidly.

The graph above shows that home prices escalated 5.6% year-over-year – and that the CoreLogic forecast for 2019 is that housing will continue to appreciate at a 4.7% clip.

It’s really important to understand that home prices are in no way projected to go down.  They are just increasing at a slower rate than over the last 2 years.

Many potential buyers are sitting on the fence, waiting to see if the market has “topped-out”, but as you can see, this is not the case.

You can find out more about why there is no bubble and why 2018 looks nothing like 2007 here…

The CoreLogic/Case-Shiller indexes help securities investors, mortgage banks, servicing operations, and government agencies make property valuations, assess and manage risk, mitigate losses, and control appraisal quality.

In essence, these guys are the best in the business in real-estate pricing data and forecasting.  Interestingly, their forecasts have actually been quite conservative – they’ve been on the low side when predicting appreciation over the last few years.

Yes, forecasted growth will most likely slow some, but not by much…and remember, this shows that appreciation is increasing at a slower rate, not a loss in value.

Interest Rates

Secondly, based on the latest economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve, there’s very good reason to believe that interest rates will continue their ascent.  You can find out more about that here….

Now is not the time to sit on the sidelines if you are looking to purchase residential real estate.  If you wait another 18 months, I’m sure you will be looking back wondering why you didn’t act in 2018.

If you would like to discuss this more in detail, please do reach out to me, as it would be my pleasure to help!

Rising Interest Rates and Increasing Property Values – Updated Forecast 2018-2019

October 7, 2018 /

The question asked to me most often over the last few months is “is now a good time to buy?”

Many potential buyers are concerned about rising rates and property values. And yes – both are going up.

My answer to their question might surprise you – as I truly believe now is a great time to purchase real estate.

Purchasing Today – Why Now?

It was clearly more advantageous to purchase real estate last year, when looking through the rear view mirror.  But I’m convinced that purchasing today will be MUCH better than this time next year.

Why?  Well, for one, property values are increasing at over 5% per year, so that home you are looking at today will most likely be 4-5% more expensive next year.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve has signaled 3 to 4 more interest rate hikes over the next 15 months, the next most likely coming in December of this year.

So, let’s be clear about the fact that most experts agree that both prices and rates will most likely be higher next year versus today.

Why the shift?  Read on for more….

First: The Good News – and There’s Lots of It

Unemployment is at it’s lowest level since 1969.

“This is the best job market in a generation or more,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at recruiting site Glassdoor.

Unemployment rates below 4% are extremely rare in 70 years of modern record-keeping. The two longest sustained periods came during the Korean and Vietnam Wars, when the combination of strong growth and the enlistment of young men from the civilian labor force helped to largely wring unemployment out of the economy.

Real wages were up nearly 3% in August of this year.

Per the Wall St. Journal, the Atlanta Fed’s “wage tracker” showed a 3.2% increase year-over-year for June. Most encouraging is the report of a bounce in labor productivity growth in the second quarter to 2.9%. That’s the best jump since the first quarter of 2015,

Home prices are rising steadily at over 5% year-over-year.

Home price gains are starting to decelerate (they are growing, but at a slower rate than last year)— but they’re still strong and are running well ahead of wage gains and inflation.

Inflation, the arch enemy of bonds and interest rates – is holding at the federal reserve target of 2%.

In a speech last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested he sees little urgency to accelerate the central bank’s pace of interest-rate increases or to signal a more restrictive policy path ahead, in part because inflation is so low and stable.

Rates Today – and What We Can Expect

The stronger than expected economic data released over the last weeks and months are actually bad news for mortgage rates, and rates reached their highest levels in many years.

Last Wednesday’s bond rout sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investors’ sentiment toward growth and inflation, to its highest level since July 2011. Risky assets rallied, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record and crude-oil prices to multiyear highs.

Together, the moves suggested investors are once again growing more and more about future growth, a shift from the more cautious outlook that many held for much of the year.

Interestingly, mortgage interest rates don’t necessarily move in step with the federal funds rate, as they are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury Bond. So, borrowers today looking to get a mortgage aren’t directly affected by the latest Fed hike.

However, the federal funds rate does contribute to the longer-term trends of the 10-year Treasury, and long-term fixed mortgages as a result.

Here’s a little perspective on average mortgage rates since 2000:

Graph Courtesy MarketWatch

With the Fed likely lifting rates multiple times over the next year plus, the trend for long-term mortgage rates is up. It would not surprise me to see 6% interest rates in 2019.

Here’s a piece I wrote earlier this year that outlines more regarding rates and what we can expect in 2019…

The Bond Market and Interest Rates

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest level since 1969, the Labor Department reported Friday. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from August—the third straight month of solid, inflation-beating gains.

Fed officials raised their benchmark short-term rate last week and penciled in four more quarter-percentage-point increases through the end of 2019. That would lift the rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%. Until recently, many investors doubted the Fed would go that far.

The Fed is raising rates to keep the economy from overheating. If the economy becomes “too strong”, that could send inflation higher, and the Fed doesn’t want that to happen. They combat inflation by raising interest rates.

In essence, the bond market is starting to believe the Federal Reserve.

Finally, I’d invite you to read this article on how rising interest rates are not deterring buyers in today’s market…

What About Another Bubble?

Many clients are talking about a potential bubble, and they don’t want to be on the wrong side of it, if it were to burst.

However, most economists are not the slightest bit concerned about this.

Why? It’s about supply and demand. And the supply is tight. It isn’t forecasted to meet demand until sometime in 2021 or beyond.

Actually, it’s the lack of supply and the accompanying home prices quickly rising are the sources of market headaches.   Remember your Economics 101 class on supply and demand? When supply is down and demand increases, prices move up.

In reality, the supply shortage is a much better problem to have, compared to a demand shortage. The current problem also portends no meaningful price decline nor an impending foreclosure crisis. Rather, there is a good possibility for solid home sales growth once the supply issue is steadily addressed.

As to new home building activity, housing starts did fall by a double-digit percentage in June, as mentioned above, but are up 7.8% year-to-date to June.

More will need to be built, as there is still a shortage. As more homes are built, an additional boost will be provided to the local economy along with more local job creations.

In Conclusion

So, it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage interest rates overall. These increases do look to be gradual for the time being, but consistent and into 2019, for sure.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at over 5%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home!

Secondly, home buying power is still extraordinarily high, despite rising home prices and rate hikes.

Find out more about that here.

In reality, now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

References:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-investors-catch-up-with-feds-plans-1538767826

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenceyun/2018/08/02/no-housing-recession-over-horizon/#3d8212a5f79c

https://www.wsj.com/articles/real-wages-are-rising-1536359667

Rising Interest Rates Aren’t Deterring Buyers

September 10, 2018 /

Mortgage interest rates have risen consistently over the last year-and-a-half. At that time, rates for the 30-year fixed were just under 4%. Lately, the average is closing in on 5% percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Let’s take a look at the facts and crunch the numbers. You’ll likely find that minor rate fluctuations won’t affect a buyer’s ability to purchase a home

Despite these rising mortgage rates, there’s good news:

  • Rising mortgage rates don’t have to stifle the buyer’s dream of owning
  • In fact, a new study by Redfin shows that rising rates aren’t scaring off many shoppers
  • Rates remain historically very affordable, even if they are a bit higher today

Source: You can find out more here – by reading Erik Martin’s entire piece at The Mortgage Reports

What the research found on interest rates and purchasing patterns

A recent survey of potential buyers by Redfin reveals some interesting findings:

  • Only one in 20 would call off their search if rates rose above 5 percent
  • One in four said such an increase would have no impact on their search
  • Nineteen percent would increase their urgency to find a home before further rate increases
  • Twenty-one percent would look in other areas or search for a more affordable home
  • One-third would slow down their search to see if rates came back down

This means that many buyers understand the environment today – and realize the long-term benefits of home ownership.

How to read the data

Taylor Marr, senior economist at Redfin, says these results are telling.

“Only a small share of buyers will scrap their plans to buy a home if rates surpass 5 percent. This reflects their determination to be a part of the housing market,” he notes.

Marr says buyers are well aware that rising mortgage rates mean slightly higher monthly payments. Yet buyers are willing to make compromises, as they understand that actual wages are higher today, making the purchase more affordable. Also, they know that real estate generally appreciates.  Finally, today’s rates remain very low, compared to historical norms.

“By historical terms, 5 percent mortgages are not that high. A rate below 7 percent is really a good deal on long-term money,” Joshua Harris, clinical assistant professor of real estate at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, says. “Plus, rents are generally high. So even at 5 percent, many buyers will still be saving money on monthly housing costs.”

What buyers can do now

Most experts recommend the following steps:

Buy now if you can afford it – “While rates are going up, so are home prices in most markets,” says Harris. “The job market is great. Many are seeing wage growth in many sectors. These forces will push rates up and give people more money to spend on a house. So waiting can be a very costly decision if you need a house and don’t want to rent.”

Get your financial house together – start the pre-approval process and get qualified for a loan. “Ask questions and understand the monthly payments you’ll need to make,” suggests Suzanne Hollander, real estate attorney, broker and Florida International University instructor. Will your income be able to cover the principal, interest, taxes and insurance? Will it provide enough money to live the lifestyle you prefer?”

Don’t sweat a minor rate hike – “So long as you intend to hold the home for at least five years, these small fluctuations shouldn’t affect your decision to buy,” Harris adds.

With economic gains outpacing mortgage rate interest rates in many markets, you may be better able to buy a home today than at any time over the last 10 years. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me and find out more!

The Latest on Interest Rates for 2018 and 2019

July 5, 2018 /

The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate last month by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The Fed has indicated that there will most likely be two more rate hikes this year.

Most financial experts expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least 3 times in 2019, as well.

Mortgage interest rates don’t necessarily move in step with the federal funds rate, as they are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury Bond. So, borrowers today looking to get a mortgage aren’t directly affected by the latest Fed hike.

However, the federal funds rate does contribute to the longer-term trends of the 10-year Treasury, and long-term fixed mortgages as a result.

With the Fed likely lifting rates multiple times over the next couple of years, the trend for long-term mortgage rates is up. 

Many experts are forecasting that mortgage rates could move near the 6% range sometime in 2019.

Why is the Federal Reserve raising rates?

Well, it’s a bit complicated, but there are some very good reasons – and they are all designed to help foster stable, economic growth.

‘Quantitative Tightening’

Between 2009 and 2014, the US Federal Reserve created $3.5 trillion during three phases of what was called “Quantitative Easing”.  It was the Federal Reserve’s response to help reduce the dramatic market swings created by the recession about 10 years ago.

This seems to have helped the economy avert disaster, but their impacts were far from ideal. Nonetheless, the economy slowly lifted off as consumers rebuilt their balance sheets and asset values rose.

Today, the Fed is slowly reversing this stimulus program. They’re raising short-term rates and shrinking their bond and mortgage back securities portfolio.

The consensus thinking is that the Federal Reserve members fear that inflation will take hold if they keep interest rates artificially low.

Historically, when the bonds owned by the Fed mature, they simply reinvested the proceeds into new bonds.  It essentially keeps the size of the balance sheet stable, while having very little impact on the market.

However, when quantitative tightening began in October of 2017, the Fed started slowing down these reinvestments, allowing its balance sheet to gradually shrink.

In theory, through unwinding its balance sheet slowly by just allowing the bonds it owns to mature, the Fed can attempt to mitigate the fear of what might happen to yields if it was to ever try and sell such a large amount of bonds directly.

Essentially, the Federal Reserve is changing the supply and demand curve and the result is a higher yield in the 10-year treasury note.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation is beginning to inch up as the labor market continues to improve. Most indicators suggest inflation has been climbing in recent months. If you look at both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, you will see the trends.

This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices, and increased employment.

Rising inflation is a threat to government bond investors because it chips away at the purchasing power of their fixed interest payments. As mentioned earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is watched particularly closely because it is a bedrock of global finance. It is key in influencing borrowing rates for consumers, businesses and state and local governments.

Positive labor and economic news keeps coming in (as predicted over the last 6 months), and the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

What It All Means

So, it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage interest rates overall. These increases do look to be gradual for the time being, but consistent and into 2019, for sure.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at nearly 6%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home!

Secondly, home buying power is still extraordinarily high, despite rising home prices and rate hikes. Find out more about that here.

In reality, now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

April 2, 2018 /

That House Will Probably Cost More The Longer You Wait

Today’s potential home buyers have many questions about local real estate markets and how it relates to the purchase of a new home. The one I hear the most is:

‘Does it make sense to buy a house in now, or would it be better to wait until next year?’

Click on the video above to find out more,

Well, there are some things we just can’t predict with certainty, and that includes future housing costs….however,

most economists and forecasters agree that home values will likely continue to rise throughout 2018 and into 2019. Secondly, these same experts also predict that interest rates will continue to rise.

Houses Are INCREASING in Value and Are Getting More Expensive

As usual, it’s a story of supply and demand. There is a high level of demand for housing in cities across the country, but there’s not enough inventory to meet it. As a result, home buyers in who delay their purchases until 2019 will likely encounter higher housing costs.

According to Zillow, the real estate information company, the median home value for Arizona increased to over $233,000 – a year-over-year increase of 6.7%. In California, the median home value is over $465,000 – an increase of 8.8%. Looking forward, the company’s economists expect the median to rise by another nearly 5% over the next 12 months. This particular forecast projects into the first quarter of 2019.

Other forecasters have echoed this sentiment. There appears to be broad consensus that home values across the country will likely continue to rise over the coming months.

The Supply and Demand for Housing

It is the supply and demand imbalance that’s the primary factor in influencing home prices. So it’s vitally important for home buyers to understand these market conditions.

Most real estate markets, including California and Arizona are experiencing a supply shortage. Inventory is falling short of demand, and that puts upward pressure on home values.

Economists and housing analysts say that a balanced real estate market has somewhere around 5 to 6 months worth of supply. In both California and Arizona today, that figure is in the 2.5 to 3 month range. Clearly, these markets are much tighter than normal, from an inventory standpoint. This is true for other parts of the nation as well, where inventory levels are in the 4-month range.

Interest Rates

There has been a slow increase in interest rates since September of 2017 – and a quicker jump in the last few months.  Bond markets haven’t seen pressures like this in over 4 years – and things are trending higher.

Many investors believe inflation is bound to tick up if the labor market continues to improve, and some market indicators suggest inflation expectations have been climbing in recent months.

This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices and the passage of sweeping tax cuts.  Many think could provide a further boost to the economy – giving consumers more money at their disposal.

If positive labor and economic news keep pouring out (as most analysts believe things will continue to improve), then the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

The Federal Reserve has suggested that they will have 3 to 4 interest rate increases in 2018, and most experts see a .5% to 1% overall increase in mortgage rates this year.

In Conclusion

So, let’s take a look at our original question: Does it make sense to buy a home in 2018, or is it better to wait until 2019?

Current trends suggest that home buyers who delay their purchases until later this year or next will most likely encounter higher housing costs. All of these trends and forecasts make a good case for buying a home sooner rather than later. Please reach out to me for more, as it would be my privilege to help!

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