Coaching and teaching - many through the mortgage process and others on the field

Tag: investor (Page 1 of 2)

Why Lagging Inflation Data Could Unlock Real Estate Opportunities This September

housing market real estate prices business analytics

Let’s dive into a timely economic topic that’s buzzing in real estate circles: how potentially overstated inflation figures could pave the way for favorable conditions in the housing market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17, 2025.

people holding a miniature wooden house

This is particularly relevant for real estate agents guiding clients, buyers eyeing their dream home, and sellers looking to capitalize on improving market dynamics.

Let’s break it down step by step, drawing from recent analysis by MBS Highway and current market data.

The Inflation Disconnect: BLS Data vs. Real-Time Reality

Inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are key drivers of Federal Reserve policy, influencing everything from interest rates to mortgage affordability. But here’s the catch: these official numbers might be painting an overly pessimistic picture due to methodological quirks.

According to a recent MBS Highway snippet, Zillow’s Observed Rent Index showed blended rents decelerating to just 2.6% year-over-year in July— a clear sign of cooling in the rental market. In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies heavily on imputed data, such as Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which stood at 4.1% in their calculations. OER essentially estimates what homeowners would pay if they rented their own homes, but it’s based on surveys and guesswork rather than real-time transaction data.

codes on tilt shift lens

When you adjust the Core CPI using Zillow’s more granular, market-based figures and apply the appropriate weightings (shelter costs make up about a third of CPI), the inflation reading drops significantly.

MBS Highway estimates Core CPI is overstated by 0.5%, meaning it would clock in at 2.6% instead of the reported 3.1%. Similarly, Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred gauge— is overstated by 0.2%, landing at 2.6% rather than 2.8%. These adjustments even account for external factors like tariffs, which add some upward pressure but are hard to quantify precisely.

The bottom line? The BLS’s use of lagging, imputed data could be inflating perceptions of economic heat. If policymakers shift toward real-time sources like Zillow’s index, we might see a more accurate (and lower) inflation narrative.

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: What It Means for Real Estate

This discrepancy matters because it directly ties into the Fed’s actions. With inflation appearing stickier than it might actually be, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been cautious. However, markets are now pricing in a strong likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17, 2025, meeting— with over 85% odds according to CME FedWatch data.

person holding u s dollar banknotes

Economists from firms like J.P. Morgan and Nomura have brought forward their forecasts, expecting this cut amid signs of a softening labor market and broader economic cooling.

Lower federal funds rates typically translate to reduced mortgage rates, making borrowing cheaper. If the Fed acknowledges that inflation is lower than BLS figures suggest (perhaps influenced by real-time data), we could see even more aggressive easing.

This is a game-changer for the real estate sector, where high rates have sidelined many participants in recent years.

Rising Inventory: A Buyer’s Market in the Making

Compounding this opportunity is the steady improvement in housing inventory. As of July 2025, active listings nationwide reached over 1.1 million— up 28.9% year-over-year in June and continuing to surge.

Regions like the West and South are seeing the biggest gains, with increases of 32.5% and 25.4%, respectively. This shift toward pre-pandemic levels means more choices for buyers, potentially easing price pressures and creating negotiating leverage.

For real estate buyers: If Zillow’s rent data proves more reflective of true shelter costs, corrected inflation could accelerate rate cuts, lowering your monthly payments.

Home with magnifier

With inventory climbing, now’s the time to lock in a property before competition heats up. Imagine securing a low-cost mortgage that fits your long-term goals— building equity and wealth for generations.

For sellers: More buyers entering the market due to affordability improvements could mean quicker sales and stronger offers. But don’t wait too long; as inventory grows, the balance might tip further toward buyers.

For agents: Educate your clients on these dynamics. Highlight how overstated inflation might be holding back rate relief, and position September’s Fed decision as a pivotal moment. Tools like Zillow’s real-time insights can help demonstrate market realities beyond official stats.

Seizing the Moment: How I Can Help

As The Lending Coach, I’m all about transparency and tailoring solutions to your needs.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer in Arizona, or an agent partnering on deals in California, let’s chat about how a potential rate cut could work in your favor.

I love building relationships over the phone— by reaching out to me today, we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Great News for Multi-Unit Financing | A Low Down Payment Option

Condo complex

I have some great news to report, as Fannie Mae is dramatically reducing the down payment requirements for purchasers utilizing multi-unit properties as their primary residence.

Historically, buyers would need to bring in a minimum of a 25% down payment for a 3-4 unit property or 15% for a duplex. That all changes starting November 18, 2023.

Now, any multi-unit property (2-4 units) can be purchased with just 5% down!

Here are the new calculations:

Here’s a little bit more:

Row of houses

Specifics

This is for a primary residential purchase only, and mortgage insurance will apply if utilizing the 5% down option. 

Secondly, 75% of the expected rents of the non-owner occupied unit(s) can be used as qualifying income for the loan application.

Please do contact me for more, as it would be my pleasure to help with this type of purchase.

Lending Coach Title Bar

New Housing Survey Shows Potential Opportunity for Buyers

Home Sweet Home Sign with Flyers about Buying a Home and Keys

The MBS Highway Survey, which is comprised of roughly 3,000 Mortgage and Real Estate Professionals, was just released for August.

a woman in black suit jacket holding a for sale sign

For buyers looking to purchase real estate, this slight cool-down in activity may present a wonderful opportunity! 

There is certainly a slowdown in activity and pricing pressure from July to August, but 53% of respondents are still citing that their markets are active, while 47% note that it is slower.

16% of those surveyed are still seeing price increases, while 58% are seeing some degree of price decreases, although many of these are listing prices that are coming down to earth and not home value declines.

MBS Housing Survey from August 2022

Out west, you can see that activity is slowing and pricing pressure has decreased dramatically!

Almost half of the respondents are seeing the sales pace at normal levels, with homes selling near the asking price.

Of those who said activity was slower, many cited that it was due to a lack of inventory. In addition, many are still seeing multiple offers, but less than in previous months.

Please do contact me for more information, as I would be glad to send you a customized report showing the health of the real estate market in your local area.

Lending Coach Contact

Owning Investment Property: A Primer For First Timers

assorted color wall paint house photo
Photo by Jessica Bryant on Pexels.com

Owning investment properties can be a great way to earn extra income. I’m linking today to an article from Peter Warden at The Mortgage Reports on a fantastic article for would be real estate investors. 

Whether it’s a career choice or an extra source of income, becoming a landlord requires hard work, knowledge, and time. The idea of rent collection as a source of passive income attracts many new landlords to this profession.

But experienced landlords know this job requires an active approach. The more you work to maintain properties, find the right tenants, and keep track of all the details, the more successful you can be.

Peter Warden, The Mortgage Reports

This article isn’t a quick read – it’s quite in-depth and I invite you to read the entire thing here.

He breaks down the article into 10 sections:

Notebook with Small Wooden House
  • What to know
  • Getting started
  • Financing a property
  • Work involved
  • Planning ahead
  • Hiring help
  • Legal issues
  • Finding tenants
  • Evicting tenants
  • Forms for landlords

Many of my clients have found that owning rental property is one of the best financial moves they ever made.

At the same time, owning rental properties isn’t easy and involves a good deal of effort. However, the financial rewards can make all that worthwhile!

As Warden states, “True, owning a rental property rarely makes people rich quickly. But getting rich slowly is a very attractive alternative.”

What’s the first step? Doing the research on how to make a rental property purchase. Do reach out to me for more, as it would be my pleasure to help on the financing side.

Lending Coach Contact

Now Is A Great Time To Refinance That Investment Property

red house clipart

Mortgage rates are at all-time lows.  Many homeowner’s are taking advantage and locking in for the long term.  But what about investors, are they doing the same?

Refinancing rental properties can unlock a good deal of wealth-building opportunities for investors, including the ability to lower interest rates and monthly payments, improve loan terms, and earn additional cash flow.

green piggy bank with a calculator

Interestingly, many investors have not taken advantage of today’s market.

For one reason or another, there are a number of investors that don’t even realize the opportunity that’s in front of them.

Should I Refinance My Rental Property?

In most cases, investors should consider a refinance to:

  • Lower the mortgage rate
  • Convert from an ARM to a fixed-rate
  • Turn a hard money loan into a conventional one
  • Pay off the loan more quickly
  • Upgrade a current investment property
person typing on a computer

Much has changed in a relatively short period of time regarding rates and valuations…and they are almost all in favor of the investor.

As mentioned earlier, interest rates are historically low…and they look a lot better than they did even this time last year, let alone a few years ago.

5.75% versus 4.5% example

If you purchased an investment property in October of last year, for example, many borrowers took on mortgages with an interest rate in the high 5% range.

Today, if that investor were to refinance their $250,000 loan from 5.75% to 4.5% for example, they would save nearly $200 per month.

There might be some discount points involved depending on the scenario, but they can be financed into the loan amount, so the only out-of-pocket cost would be that of an appraisal.

coins with monopoly houses

Assumptions: $250K loan, 70% loan-to-value and 760+ credit score

In Conclusion

When you own an investment property, the goal is to earn a solid rate of return…and refinancing that property can increase your short-term cash flow and help you build longer-term wealth.

Do reach out to me for more, as it would be my pleasure to help you look at different options and programs that might help you in today’s market.

Lending Coach Contact
« Older posts

© 2025 The Lending Coach

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑