The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
Most buyers today are waiting. Waiting for rates to fall, waiting for the “right time,” waiting for the market to feel calm again.
But here’s the truth: those who wait often lose the most. In real estate, time in the market almost always beats perfect timing of the market.
As The Lending Coach, my job isn’t just to quote a rate and send my clients on their way. My goal is to help them use the market as it is today to move closer to their long-term wealth goals.
And right now, 2026 looks to be full of smart opportunities—if you know where to look.
Why Waiting for Rates to Move Can Cost You More
Rates get all the headlines, but home prices usually tell the real story. Historically, when rates rise, home prices may slow—but they rarely fall in a meaningful way.
And once rates drop, competition floods back in, pushing prices up even faster.
This creates a common trap: Buyers wait for rates to fall… Rates finally fall… Prices jump… And the “savings” disappear.
Your best advantage is often to buy the home before everyone else comes off the sidelines.
Smart Ways to Win in Today’s Market
You don’t need to wait for the perfect rate to put yourself in a strong financial position. You just need the right strategy. Here are a few powerful tools that can help you take advantage of today’s conditions:
1. Permanent Rate Buydowns
In today’s purchase market, many sellers are willing to give concessions to buyers. Many of my clients are using those concessions to buy down their mortgage rate using discount points. More on that here…
Many clients are able to move their 30-year rate into the mid-to-high 5% range, setting them up for lower payments over the life of the loan.
2. Temporary Buydowns (1-0, 2-1, 3-2-1)
These are fantastic for easing into your payment while you grow into the home—or while waiting for a future refinance opportunity.
Like I mentioned earlier, sellers are offering concessions more often right now, which means buydowns can often be funded without increasing your out-of-pocket cost.
This isn’t about chasing rates with blind optimism.
It’s about having a planned refinance strategy based on market indicators, equity targets, and short-term affordability. When done correctly, today’s purchase can position you for tomorrow’s lower payment without missing appreciation.
4. Adjustable-Rate Options Built for Shorter Time Horizons
ARMs aren’t for everyone, but they can make perfect sense for buyers planning to move, upgrade, or refinance within a structured timeline. When used strategically, they can lower your payment and maximize your cashflow.
5. The Term of Your Loan is Paramount
The most common length of a mortgage is 30-years. But 20-year and 15-year options exist, too.
Yes, the payment will be larger, but not as high as you might think. The good news: mortgage rates are generally lower for 20-year and 15-year fixed mortgages.
More importantly, the amount of money going to principal versus interest is dramatic with loans of shorter duration. I’d be happy to show you the amortization schedule of a 30-year loan versus a 20-year loan.
You will be amazed at how you can build equity much faster this way!
6. Homebuyer Coaching to Align Decisions With Long-Term Goals
One of the biggest advantages you can give yourself is working with a mortgage professional who understands your goals—not just your application. A step-by-step plan can help you make decisions confidently now, instead of freezing in place.
A Simple 2026 Game Plan (Based on Buyer Type)
First-Time Buyers
Your focus: getting into the market and letting time and appreciation go to work for you.
Opportunities: seller concessions, buydowns, down payment assistance, and creative loan structuring.
Move-Up Buyers
Your focus: using today’s slower tempo to negotiate better terms, then refinancing into a lower payment later.
Opportunities: contingent offers, pricing negotiation, and equity-driven planning.
Investors
Your focus: leveraging the soft spots in the market where competition has thinned out.
Opportunities: DSCR options, blended financing, and BRRRR-friendly structures.
You Don’t Need Perfect Timing—You Need the Right Plan
Success in today’s market isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about positioning yourself well no matter what the future brings.
If you’ve been thinking about buying—but feeling unsure—let’s take a few minutes to build a personalized strategy together. I’ll help you understand your options, compare scenarios, and map out the clearest path toward your long-term goals.
This market rewards the prepared. Let’s build your 2026 plan now.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
If you’ve heard that the Fed cut interest rates and wondered why mortgage rates rose instead of fell, you’re not alone.
It’s one of the most common misunderstandings in the market—and last week’s Fed meeting was a perfect example of why that happens.
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25%, and also announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT)—its long-running effort to reduce bond holdings.
Both moves were widely expected, and neither created a big market reaction on their own.
But when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke during his press conference, he made it clear that another rate cut in December was not guaranteed.
When asked about a rate cut in December, Powell stated “it’s not a foregone conclusion – far from it.”
That comment alone shifted market expectations, sending Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher within hours.
Why Mortgage Rates React Differently
Mortgage rates don’t move directly with the Fed’s rate changes. Instead, they follow the bond market, which constantly adjusts based on what investors expect the Fed will do next.
When Powell signaled uncertainty about future cuts, bond traders adjusted those expectations upward—pricing in fewer rate reductions ahead.
That caused bond prices to fall and yields (and mortgage rates) to rise.
In short:
The Fed’s current rate cut = already expected.
Powell’s tone about the future = what moved rates higher.
As a result, the average 30-year fixed rose back to levels last seen in mid-October, even though it remains lower than most of the past year.
What’s Next for Mortgage Rates
With the Fed now taking a more cautious approach, the market’s focus shifts back to the economic data that’s been delayed by the government shutdown.
Upcoming reports on jobs and inflation will likely set the tone for where rates go next.
If those reports show inflation cooling or job growth slowing, we could see another move lower in bond yields—and, eventually, mortgage rates. But until that happens, expect volatility to continue around Fed commentary and inflation data.
What This Means for Homebuyers
Even though rates ticked up after the Fed meeting, they’re still hovering near some of the lowest levels in the past year.
For buyers and homeowners considering refinancing, this period remains one of the most favorable we’ve seen since 2022.
Here’s what to do now:
Lock in a rate if you’re under contract or close to applying.
Stay informed—the next inflation report could open another window of opportunity.
Plan ahead—today’s movement shows how quickly markets react to Fed comments.
Reach out to me today to discuss your current situation and to make sure you are not missing out. I’d be happy work with you and explore options.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
Mortgage interest rates have taken a welcome step lower in the past nine days—and that means homeowners have a fresh opportunity to refinance.
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate slid to 6.35% the week ending September 11, down about 0.15% from the prior week.
The 15-year and 20-year fixed fell as well, landing around 5.875%.
For investment properties and 2nd homes, we are seeing rates in the mid 6% range, as well.
Other industry surveys—Bankrate, Money.com, and Reuters—are showing similar declines across the board.
What’s Driving the Drop
The reason for the dip lies in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, has retreated in recent days.
Investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting short-term interest rates later this month.
Combined with softer labor market data and easing inflation pressure, long-term yields have fallen—and mortgage rates have followed.
Treasury Dips Don’t Last Long
If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Since mid-2023, there have been eight significant downward moves in the 10-year Treasury yield.
You can see them highlighted in the chart above.
Each one of those dips lasted anywhere from just three days to three weeks before the trend reversed and rates climbed again.
That’s the key takeaway: lower-rate windows don’t last long. Waiting to see if rates fall further often means missing the opportunity altogether.
Why Refinancing Now Makes Sense
If you bought a home within the past two and a half years, there’s a good chance your mortgage rate is higher than where the market is today.
Even a small rate reduction can create meaningful monthly savings and improve long-term financial flexibility.
If you’ve recently completed a cash-out refinance, now may be an especially smart time to review your options. Lowering your interest rate can reduce the cost of carrying that debt, even if you pulled equity from your home earlier this year.
Beyond lowering monthly payments, refinancing may also help you:
Switch from a 30-year to a 15- or 20-year term, paying off your home faster.
Consolidate higher-interest debt into your mortgage at a lower rate.
Remove mortgage insurance if you’ve built enough equity.
The Time to Act Is Now
Rates are still volatile.
Inflation readings, labor reports, and Federal Reserve announcements can all shift the bond market quickly. The history since 2023 is clear: when Treasury yields dip, mortgage rates dip too—but they rarely stay down for long.
That’s why now is the time to act.
If your current mortgage is above today’s averages, let’s run the numbers together. Locking in while rates are on the downside could secure savings that last for years to come.
Here’s The Bottom Line
Lower rates don’t wait around. If you’ve bought a home in the past 2.5 years or completed a recent cash-out refinance, this is your window to refinance into a smarter mortgage.
Reach out to me today to make sure you are not missing out and we can begin to explore options.
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
Let’s take a look at what’s happening in the economic marketplace through the end of April 2025…and how this might impact real estate sales and mortgage rates moving forward.
Economic updates through April of this year revealed that the labor market showed some weakness, first quarter economic growth contracted, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure slowed, and home prices continued their upward trajectory.
Here are more details on these key developments…
April Jobs Report: Looking Beyond the Headlines
April brought a surprise with 177,000 new jobs added – well above the expected 130,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
What’s the bottom line? While April’s headline number appears strong, it’s important to remember these figures will be revised in coming months. Recent history suggests caution – the first three months of 2025 all saw significant downward revisions (January: -32K, February: -49K, March: -43K). If April follows this pattern, the actual job growth may fall below forecasts.
In addition, the BLS birth/death model, which estimates small business job creation, added a whopping 393,000 jobs in April. This sharply contradicts ADP’s report showing small businesses added just 11,000 jobs – suggesting potential overestimation.
Another concerning trend is the average unemployment duration increased to 23.2 weeks – the highest since December. This aligns with the ongoing elevation in weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, pointing to persistent challenges in the labor market.
Labor market weakness is a recessionary sign, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to cut its Federal Funds Rate.
Private Payrolls Miss Expectations
April’s private sector job growth came in at just 62,000 positions, falling well short of the anticipated 115,000, according to ADP data. This represents the slowest hiring pace since July, as economic uncertainty appears to be influencing employer decisions. Notably, large companies (500+ employees) added only 12,000 jobs – a significant drop from previous months.
Looking at industry breakdown, leisure/hospitality led with 27,000 new positions, followed by trade/transportation/utilities with 21,000 jobs. Both sectors face headwinds, however, with tourism already slowing and goods shipments expected to decline due to tariff impacts.
Wage growth remained steady, though it ticked down slightly to 4.5% (from 4.6%) for existing employees. Job-changers experienced a modest increase to 6.9% (from 6.7%).
What’s the bottom line? “Unease is the word of the day,” notes ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
Again, this is a recessionary sign, potentially spurring the Federal Reserve to cut its Federal Funds Rate.
The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Progress
Good news on inflation! The latest Personal Consumption Index (PCE) report reveals headline inflation remained flat month-over-month while dropping to 2.3% year-over-year (down from 2.7%). Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge – is now at 2.6%, moving closer to their 2% target.
Meanwhile, consumer spending surged 0.7% in March, possibly as shoppers rushed to beat upcoming tariffs.
What’s the bottom line? Shelter costs remain key to reaching the Fed’s 2% goal, making up 18% of Core PCE. While these costs have stayed stubbornly high in official data, real-time rental reports from sources like Apartment List and CoreLogic show softer trends. As PCE catches up to these real-world rental conditions, we should see inflation numbers continue to improve. When inflation numbers start to drop, mortgage rates will follow.
Home Prices Continue Strong Nationwide Growth
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index – widely recognized as the gold standard for tracking home values – reported a 0.3% seasonally-adjusted increase from January to February.
Year-over-year, national home prices grew by 3.9% in February, slightly down from January’s 4.1% gain. Major cities showed even stronger performance, with the 10-city composite rising 5.2% and the 20-city index up 4.5% compared to last year, demonstrating that urban markets are outpacing the national average.
In a separate report, the FHFA House Price Index showed a modest 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.9% yearly gain. Unlike Case-Shiller, FHFA’s data only tracks homes with conventional mortgages, excluding cash purchases and jumbo loans.
What’s the bottom line? Case-Shiller reports that “home prices have shown notable resilience” despite affordability challenges and high interest rates. This resilience means homeownership continues to be a powerful wealth-building tool. For perspective: if you own a $600,000 home that appreciates by 4% annually, you’d gain $24,000 in equity in just one year – an impressive return on your investment.
Other Economic Highlights
U.S. Economy Contracts: The U.S. economy declined 0.3% in Q1 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced GDP report. This contraction primarily stemmed from increased imports (ahead of tariff implementation) and reduced government spending, partially offset by growth in investment, consumer spending and exports.
Housing Market Activity Improves: Pending Home Sales (signed contracts on existing homes) jumped 6.1% from February to March – marking two consecutive monthly increases. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributes this surge to lower mortgage rates in March and suggests it “implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers.”
Labor Sector Weakening: Initial Jobless Claims hit their highest level since February at 241,000, while Continuing Claims jumped by 83,000 to 1.916 million – the highest since November 2021. In addition, job openings fell to 7.192 million in March, continuing their decline from 2022 peaks. Remote work may inflate these figures through multi-state postings, potentially concealing even fewer actual openings. The job vacancies to unemployed ratio has dropped from 2:1 in 2022 to 1:1, signaling deteriorating labor market conditions.
What Does All of This Mean?
It does appear that economic activity is slowing – and it really has been over the last 6+ months. Most of these indicators are pointing toward a recession…which actually is good news for home buyers and home owners. Mortgage rages generally go down during recessions and home values usually go up during these periods.
Please do reach out to me for more, as I’d be glad to go through these data points with you and help put a purchase plan together!
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
Thomas Eugene Bonetto
Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS: 1431961
About The Coach
Tom Bonetto has been helping his customers and players achieve their best for nearly 30 years. His goal is to provide both a superior customer experience and tremendous value for both his business associates and his players alike.
The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of Starlight Mortgage.
