Tag: mortgage rates (Page 1 of 4)

Mortgage Affordability in 2026: 7 Things You Can Control Before Buying a Home

July 28, 2026 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

Lately I’ve been getting the same question in conversations with clients: “Tom, how do we make housing affordable right now?”

It’s late July 2026. The first half of the year has been tough. Things looked a little better late last year and into January, but affordability remains the dominant conversation.

I wanted to address it directly—first the things none of us control, then the things you can control starting today.

A Quick Word on Perspective

Before we dig in, let’s hold two-time horizons at once.

In the long run I do believe rates are coming down. If that’s true, today’s payment is not necessarily your permanent payment. You can refinance later, shorten the term, or increase principal payments as your income and circumstances improve.

Short-term affordability and long-term affordability are related, but they are not the same calculation. Keep both in view.

The Things You Can’t Control About Affordability

When elected officials and media talk about “making housing more affordable,” I have to be honest—I often shake my head. Not because the problem isn’t real, but because the solutions they discuss rarely touch the actual cost drivers.

Property Taxes – A perpetual tax on an asset you already own and paid for with after-tax dollars is a strange policy. The property-tax structure is one of the biggest levers on true housing cost. If we were serious about affordability, this would be near the top of the list.
Capital Gains – At the federal level (and in many states) the tax friction on selling a property keeps inventory locked up. Reform here would increase supply and improve market function.
Over-Regulation of the Mortgage Industry – Yes, we need regulation. I am not arguing for a return to the pre-2008 environment. But the compliance burden that landed on mortgage companies, loan officers, and investors after the financial crisis is enormous. I spend a significant amount of time and money every year simply staying compliant. Those costs do not disappear—they get passed through to the borrower in the form of higher fees and higher rates.
Third-party Fees – Eleven years ago a credit pull cost roughly $30–$35. Today it routinely runs $150 or more. Automated verification of employment can add hundreds more. On a recent closing I saw more than $500 in combined credit and VOE costs alone. That’s a roughly 320% Cost of Credit Inquiries – There is no competition or efficiency gain being forced into that system, so the borrower pays.

These are macro and structural issues. Outside of voting and advocating, most of us cannot change them overnight. So let’s talk about what you can control.

What You Can Control Right Now About Affordability

1. Get the right mortgage product—and the right structure.

Not every loan is the same. Conventional conforming (Fannie/Freddie), FHA, VA, USDA, and non-QM products all carry different cost structures, different mortgage-insurance rules, and different long-term implications. The term matters too.

A 29-year loan is almost always less expensive over the life of the loan than a 30-year loan, even though the monthly payment is slightly higher. Down-payment amount changes both rate and monthly cost.

Work with a loan officer who will run the actual numbers side-by-side instead of defaulting to the product that is easiest to sell.

2. Negotiate the contract like it matters—because it does.

Three, four, five years ago almost every contract I saw came in above asking price. Appraisals were routinely waived. Inspection items were often left unaddressed. The interest rate was low, so the payment looked affordable—but buyers were financing a higher purchase price and accepting more risk.

Today the rate is higher, which makes the payment feel harder. But I almost never see a contract without meaningful seller concessions. Appraisals are not being waived. Inspection issues are being negotiated and frequently repaired.

Those concessions can be used to pay closing costs, buy down the rate, or both. A skilled real-estate agent who knows how to structure the offer is one of the highest-leverage tools you have for affordability right now.

3. Be careful with down-payment assistance.

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

These programs can be excellent for the right buyer. They can also be expensive. In eleven years I have never seen a “grant” that truly never gets paid back in some form—either through a higher rate, a second lien, or repayment on sale or refinance.

If you need the assistance to close, use it. If you don’t, the extra cost is rarely worth it. Ask your loan officer to show you the true all-in cost before you commit.

4. Master your credit profile deliberately.

I hear this story constantly: “We paid off all our credit cards so we could buy a house.” In many cases that decision does two harmful things at once—it reduces the cash available for down payment and closing costs, and it can actually lower the credit score because of how utilization and length of credit history are calculated.

I am not advocating consumer debt. I dislike it. But before you start paying things off in the name of becoming a stronger buyer, sit down with a loan officer who has access to credit simulators.

We can model the effect of paying down one card versus another, or keeping balances where they are, against your debt-to-income ratio, available cash, and the pricing of the loan. Randomly “cleaning up” credit is one of the most common self-inflicted wounds I see.

5. Build the right team and understand their incentives.

Buying or refinancing a home is a complicated transaction. The people around you matter:

A real-estate agent who can negotiate price, concessions, inspections, and timeline.
A mortgage lender who will put you in the correct product and structure—not just the one that closes fastest.
A CPA who will help you understand the tax implications.
A financial advisor who can place real estate inside your broader plan for building wealth and legacy.

Every one of those professionals has a bias. A CPA is paid to minimize taxes. A financial advisor is often compensated for assets under management. A good loan officer is paid when the loan closes.

None of that is inherently bad—just know the incentives so you can weigh the advice!

Short-Term and Long-Term Affordability

If you cannot make the payment today, do not buy the house. That is non-negotiable.

But if the payment is workable and you believe—as decades of data support—that residential real estate remains a resilient long-term asset, then you also have tools for the years ahead: refinancing when rates allow, shortening the term as income grows, and making additional principal payments.

Affordability is not only the payment on day one. It is the total cost of ownership over the time you hold the property and the equity you build along the way.

Final Thought

As The Lending Coach, I enjoy talking to people on the phone, explaining the nuances, and helping clients make decisions that support the life and legacy they actually want. Honesty, transparency, and long-term relationships are the only way this business works for me.

If you’re trying to figure out whether a particular house or refinance makes sense in this market, do contact me. I’m happy to run the numbers, walk through the trade-offs, and help you see the full picture.

Reach out to me directly—I’d love to talk strategy and explore how we can best take advantage of market conditions to help you succeed.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Matters More Than Most Americans Realize

May 20, 2026 / Tom Bonetto

Recently, investor and financial writer Doug Casey published a striking commentary on the growing pressure surrounding U.S. Treasury yields, inflation, government debt, and the long-term stability of the dollar-based financial system.

You can find that here…

Whether you agree with Casey’s conclusions or not, his argument is important because it highlights a growing concern shared by many economists, investors, and market participants: America’s debt burden and rising interest costs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Before diving into his comments, it helps to understand who Doug Casey is and why people pay attention to his insights.

Who Is Doug Casey?

Doug Casey is a longtime investor, author, and founder of Casey Research. He became widely known after his 1979 book Crisis Investing became one of the bestselling financial books of its era, spending extended time on the New York Times bestseller list.

Casey is known for a strongly libertarian and free-market viewpoint. Through his website, International Man, he regularly writes about global economics, inflation, debt, central banking, currency risk, and what he sees as growing instability in government financial systems.

His writing often takes a contrarian tone and focuses heavily on preserving wealth during periods of monetary uncertainty.

Again, the purpose here is not to endorse his position or influence anyone into decision making. It is to understand why these concerns matter — especially for homeowners, borrowers, investors, and anyone paying attention to mortgage rates.

Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is So Important

In Casey’s words:

“The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide.”

That statement may sound dramatic, but there is a practical reason behind it.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield heavily influences:

Mortgage rates
Corporate borrowing costs
Auto loans
Credit markets
Stock market valuations
Commercial real estate financing
Global lending benchmarks

For mortgage professionals, the 10-year Treasury is especially important because mortgage-backed securities and long-term mortgage pricing tend to move in the same general direction as Treasury yields.

When Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates usually rise too.

the statue of albert gallatin in front of the treasury building

Bond Prices and Yields Move Opposite Each Other

Casey explains:

“Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.”

This is one of the most important concepts in bond markets.

If investors become less interested in owning Treasury bonds, bond prices fall. To attract new buyers, yields must increase.

Higher yields may sound attractive to savers, but they create major ripple effects across the economy because borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone — consumers, businesses, and the federal government itself.

Casey’s Core Warning

One of Casey’s main concerns is that investors may begin demanding significantly higher yields to compensate for inflation risk and growing federal debt levels.

He writes:

“A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs.”

He continues:

warning signage in overgrown natural setting

“Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt.”

And this is where the conversation becomes especially relevant.

The United States now carries an enormous national debt load. Even relatively small increases in interest rates can dramatically increase annual interest expenses.

Casey notes:

“At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense.”

He argues that continued increases in yields could materially worsen federal deficits and potentially pressure the Federal Reserve into future intervention.

Inflation, Energy Prices, and Treasury Yields

Casey also connects Treasury yields to inflation and energy markets.

He writes:

“Investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation.”

He further argues that higher oil and energy prices could accelerate inflation pressures throughout the economy because transportation, manufacturing, food production, and consumer goods all depend heavily on energy costs.

Whether one agrees fully with his outlook or not, inflation expectations absolutely do influence bond markets. Investors generally demand higher yields when they believe future inflation will reduce the purchasing power of fixed-income investments.

Why This Matters to Homebuyers and Homeowners

For consumers, the practical takeaway is straightforward:

Treasury yields directly affect mortgage rates.

When the 10-year Treasury climbs:

Mortgage rates typically rise
Monthly housing payments increase
Home affordability declines
Refinancing activity slows
Housing demand can soften

Conversely, when Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates often improve.

This is why bond markets matter so much to the housing industry — even if most consumers never follow Treasury yields directly.

The Bigger Picture

Casey closes with a stark warning:

“The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy.”

That is certainly a controversial statement, and many mainstream economists would challenge both the wording and the conclusion.

Still, his broader point deserves attention:

America’s debt servicing costs are rising rapidly, and higher interest rates create real pressure on federal budgets, financial markets, and consumer borrowing costs.

Even investors and economists who disagree with Casey politically are increasingly discussing:

Long-term deficit growth
Persistent inflation risks
Rising Treasury issuance
Federal interest expense
The sustainability of current debt levels

Those issues are becoming harder to dismiss.

Final Thoughts

You do not have to agree with all of Casey’s conclusions to recognize the importance of the underlying discussion. He has, after all, built a career around challenging mainstream financial thinking and warning about systemic risks long before they become headline news.

The 10-year Treasury yield is not just a Wall Street statistic. It influences:

Mortgage rates
Home affordability
Consumer borrowing
Government spending
Financial markets
The overall cost of money throughout the economy

For borrowers, homeowners, and investors alike, understanding what drives Treasury yields is becoming increasingly important in today’s economic environment.

Don’t Navigate This Market Alone

In a market where changes in rates can create significant shifts in pricing and competition, having the right guidance makes all the difference.

Buyers who approach the process with a clear, well-informed strategy are in a much stronger position to succeed.

If you’re considering buying a home, now is the time to have a conversation. Together, we can build a customized strategy that aligns with your goals, helps you navigate current market conditions, and positions you for long-term financial success.

Do reach out directly to me to talk strategy in today’s market!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

Mortgage Rate Shopping Mistakes

May 5, 2026 / Tom Bonetto

Mortgage markets don’t sit still. Rates can shift daily, sometimes even multiple times within the same day.

At the same time, lenders structure loans differently. What looks like a lower rate on one quote may come with higher fees, fewer credits, or stricter terms. Without a consistent framework for comparison, you’re not evaluating apples to apples—you’re juggling entirely different financial products.

a pink piggy bank beside a stack of wooden scrabble blocks

Most homebuyers assume that collecting more mortgage quotes automatically leads to a better deal. On paper, it sounds logical. More options should mean more savings, right?

In reality, rate shopping without a clear strategy often creates confusion, delays decisions, and can even cost you the home you want.

While you’re busy collecting quotes and trying to decode them, the market keeps moving.

Sellers aren’t waiting around for buyers who are still “figuring things out.” In competitive situations, they tend to favor buyers who are fully prepared, pre-approved, and backed by a lender who can move quickly and confidently.

This is where many buyers get it wrong. The best deal doesn’t always go to the person who found the lowest advertised rate.

It goes to the buyer who is organized, informed, and ready to act at the right moment.

The Right Lending Coach

A strong loan officer plays a much bigger role than simply quoting numbers. They analyze your full financial picture, guide you through different loan structures, and help you decide when to lock your rate based on market conditions.

That kind of guidance can make the difference between securing a home or losing it to another buyer.

Instead of chasing the lowest rate blindly, it’s more effective to focus on the overall strategy behind your loan. That includes timing, structure, and execution—not just the headline number.

Common Rate Shopping Mistakes:

Comparing inconsistent quotes – Different lenders present rates, fees, and credits in ways that aren’t directly comparable, leading to misleading conclusions.
Focusing only on the interest rate – A slightly lower rate can be offset by higher closing costs or less favorable loan terms.
Waiting too long to decide – Delays can cause you to miss favorable market conditions or lose out in competitive home-buying situations.
Ignoring lender reliability – A low quote doesn’t help if the lender can’t close on time or communicate effectively.
Overlooking rate lock timing – Locking too early or too late without guidance can impact your final cost.
Spreading your efforts too thin – Working with too many lenders at once can create unnecessary complexity and slow you down.

A Smarter Approach

Work with a trusted loan officer who understands your full financial picture
Focus on total loan cost, not just the rate
Be ready to act quickly when the right opportunity appears
Prioritize reliability and execution over minor rate differences

At the end of the day, buying a home isn’t about winning a rate-shopping contest. It’s about securing the right loan, at the right time, with a professional who can help you navigate the process smoothly.

The lowest number on paper doesn’t always win. The best-prepared buyer does.

Let’s talk. Reach out directly—I’d love to run your personalized scenarios and explore how we can best take advantage of market conditions to help you succeed.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

Seller Concessions: Three Smart Options (and One Powerful Alternative) to Stretch Your Dollars Further

April 20, 2026 / Tom Bonetto

In today’s market, seller concessions are more common than ever. A seller might agree to contribute 2–3% (or more) of the purchase price toward your costs. That’s real money—often thousands of dollars—that you get to direct.

But how you use it can dramatically affect your monthly payment, your equity growth, and your long-term wealth-building potential.

Here are the three primary ways borrowers can exercise a seller concession, plus one smart alternative many people overlook.

I’ll break down the pros, cons, and the critical difference between chasing the lowest monthly payment versus the lowest overall cost (and fastest equity buildup).

Option 1: Buy Down Your Interest Rate

Use the concession to purchase discount points or fund a rate buydown. This lowers your interest rate for the life of the loan (or for the first few years).

Pros:

Lowest possible monthly principal-and-interest payment
Improves cash flow for years to come
Can accelerate equity buildup in some scenarios

Cons:

If you sell or refinance early, you may not fully realize the benefit
The exact rate reduction depends on lender pricing and market conditions

Option 2: Pay for Closing Costs

Apply the concession directly to origination fees, title insurance, escrow, prepaid taxes/insurance, etc.

Pros:

Reduces or eliminates the cash you need to bring to the closing table
Preserves your savings and liquidity for moving, repairs, or emergencies
Makes the purchase possible when cash reserves are tight

Cons:

You keep the higher interest rate, so the monthly payments stay higher
Slower equity buildup because the loan balance is larger

Option 3: A Combination of the Two

Split the concession—part toward closing costs and part toward a rate buydown. This is often the sweet spot for many families.

Pros:

Balances immediate cash savings with ongoing payment relief
Flexible and tailored to your exact budget and goals

Cons:

Requires running multiple scenarios to optimize (that’s where the math comes in)

Alternative: Negotiate a Lower Purchase Price Instead

Rather than taking the concession as a credit at closing, ask the seller to simply reduce the sales price by a comparable amount. This directly lowers the amount you finance.

Pros:

Smaller loan balance = faster equity growth and less interest paid over time
Builds equity more quickly and can mean lower property taxes in some areas
Often delivers the true lowest overall cost long-term

Cons:

Sellers sometimes prefer concessions over price cuts (for tax or comp reasons)
Must confirm the lower price still supports the appraisal
Lowest Monthly Payment vs. Lowest Overall Cost (and Equity Growth)

This is the nuance I love teaching my clients—because the two are not the same.

a red paper bag in the middle of red balloons with percentage symbols

A lower interest rate on a higher loan balance can give you the smallest monthly payment. But financing a lower principal balance at a slightly higher rate can actually leave you with more equity (lower remaining balance) after 10 years.

Here’s a real-world illustration on a $400,000 home with 20% down and an $8,000 seller concession (2%) at today’s rates (~6.5%):

Rate buydown option ($320,000 loan at ~5.875%): Monthly P&I ≈ $1,893 | Principal balance after 10 years ≈ $266,895
Closing-costs-only option ($320,000 loan at 6.5%): Monthly P&I ≈ $2,023 | Principal balance after 10 years ≈ $271,284
Lower purchase price alternative ($313,600 loan at 6.5%): Monthly P&I ≈ $1,982 | Principal balance after 10 years ≈ $265,858

The rate buydown wins on the monthly cash flow. The price reduction often wins on equity built after 10 years (you owe less). A thoughtful combination can land right where you need it.

The right choice depends on how long you plan to stay, your cash-flow needs, and your bigger wealth-building goals.

That’s why amortization tables and side-by-side scenarios matter. These aren’t back-of-the-napkin guesses—they’re precise calculations that reveal the real story for your situation.

The Bottom Line: A Qualified Loan Officer Is Essential

a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

Understanding cash flow, amortization schedules, remaining balances, and these subtle trade-offs takes real expertise.

A licensed mortgage originator should be able to run every scenario side-by-side, explain it in plain English, and show you exactly how each path affects your monthly payment and your equity over time.

If your loan officer can’t do the math or isn’t willing to dig into the details with you, find one who will.

With The Lending Coach, honesty, integrity, and transparency aren’t just words—they’re how I build friendships and long-term relationships with every client.

I pick up the phone, listen to your needs, and teach the nuances so you can choose the low-cost mortgage that truly fits. My team and I are here to help you make the smartest move for your family’s future.

Let’s talk. Reach out directly—I’d love to run your personalized scenarios and explore how we can build generational wealth together.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The Relationship Between Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

April 1, 2026 / Tom Bonetto

Watercolor with lower rates and higher prices

While many buyers focus on rates as the primary factor in affordability, it’s equally important to understand how those rates impact home prices. When financing becomes more affordable, demand tends to increase—and when demand increases, prices usually follow.

Historically, there has been a clear and consistent relationship—when mortgage rates decline, home prices tend to rise.

This isn’t speculation; it’s a dynamic that has played out repeatedly across different market cycles.

Mortgage Rates and Home Prices over the Last 6 Months

We are seeing that exact pattern unfold today. Over the past six months, mortgage rates have been lower compared to the previous year, and housing data is responding accordingly.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, widely regarded as the gold standard for measuring home appreciation, has recorded six consecutive months of price increases.

That equates to approximately 3.3% annualized appreciation, signaling steady upward pressure on home values.

Why Lower Rates Increase Buyer Competition

Lower mortgage rates improve purchasing power. When rates drop, buyers can afford more home for the same monthly payment.

orange model house among black miniatures

This naturally expands the pool of qualified buyers, bringing more people into the market who may have previously been on the sidelines.

As demand increases, competition follows. In many cases, this leads to multiple offers, faster-moving inventory, and upward pressure on prices.

Sellers recognize the increased demand and adjust accordingly, often pricing homes more aggressively or holding firm during negotiations.

The Supply and Demand Reality

Housing supply remains constrained in many markets, and that imbalance plays a critical role in how prices react to rate changes. When more buyers enter a market with limited inventory, prices don’t stay flat—they rise.

This dynamic creates a compounding effect. Lower rates bring more buyers, limited supply restricts options, and the result is increased competition that drives home values higher.

It’s not just about affordability—it’s about access and timing in a competitive environment.

The Risk of Waiting for Lower Rates

It’s very common for buyers to take a “wait and see” approach, hoping mortgage rates will decline further before making a move.

While that may feel like a cautious strategy, it often leads to unintended consequences.

If rates continue to decline, demand will likely accelerate even more. That increased demand can push home prices higher at a pace that offsets—or even exceeds—the benefit of a lower interest rate.

In practical terms, a buyer may end up paying significantly more for the same property, even if they secure a slightly better rate.

Buy Now, Refinance Later

A more effective approach is to separate the home purchase from the interest rate environment. You can control when you buy, but you cannot control future rate movements or housing demand.

When you purchase a home today, you lock in the price. If rates improve in the future, you have the opportunity to refinance and lower your monthly payment.

What you can do is position yourself wisely within the current market. Find out more on “Marry the House but Date the Rate” here…

This strategy allows you to benefit from today’s pricing while maintaining flexibility for tomorrow’s financing conditions.

Building a Smart Buying Strategy

Every buyer’s situation is unique, which is why having a clear strategy is essential. Factors like time horizon, financial goals, and market conditions all play a role in determining the right approach.

The key is to make informed decisions based on both current data and forward-looking trends.

Understanding the relationship between mortgage rates and home prices is just one piece of the puzzle.

Structuring your financing, timing your purchase, and preparing for future opportunities—such as refinancing—are all critical components of a successful plan.

Don’t Navigate This Market Alone

In a market where small changes in rates can create significant shifts in pricing and competition, having the right guidance makes all the difference.

Buyers who approach the process with a clear, well-informed strategy are in a much stronger position to succeed.

Do reach out directly to me to talk strategy in today’s market!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

Mortgage Affordability in 2026: 7 Things You Can Control Before Buying a Home

A Quick Word on Perspective

The Things You Can’t Control About Affordability

What You Can Control Right Now About Affordability

Short-Term and Long-Term Affordability

Final Thought

Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Matters More Than Most Americans Realize

Who Is Doug Casey?

Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Is So Important

Bond Prices and Yields Move Opposite Each Other

Casey’s Core Warning

Inflation, Energy Prices, and Treasury Yields

Why This Matters to Homebuyers and Homeowners

Final Thoughts

Don’t Navigate This Market Alone

Mortgage Rate Shopping Mistakes

The Right Lending Coach

Common Rate Shopping Mistakes:

A Smarter Approach

Seller Concessions: Three Smart Options (and One Powerful Alternative) to Stretch Your Dollars Further

Option 1: Buy Down Your Interest Rate

Option 2: Pay for Closing Costs

Option 3: A Combination of the Two

Alternative: Negotiate a Lower Purchase Price Instead

The Bottom Line: A Qualified Loan Officer Is Essential

The Relationship Between Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

Mortgage Rates and Home Prices over the Last 6 Months

Why Lower Rates Increase Buyer Competition

The Supply and Demand Reality

The Risk of Waiting for Lower Rates

Buy Now, Refinance Later

Building a Smart Buying Strategy

Don’t Navigate This Market Alone

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