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Mortgage Affordability in 2026: 7 Things You Can Control Before Buying a Home

House with keys

Lately I’ve been getting the same question in conversations with clients: “Tom, how do we make housing affordable right now?”

close up shot of a pocket watch

It’s late July 2026. The first half of the year has been tough. Things looked a little better late last year and into January, but affordability remains the dominant conversation.

I wanted to address it directly—first the things none of us control, then the things you can control starting today.

A Quick Word on Perspective

Before we dig in, let’s hold two-time horizons at once.

In the long run I do believe rates are coming down. If that’s true, today’s payment is not necessarily your permanent payment. You can refinance later, shorten the term, or increase principal payments as your income and circumstances improve.

Short-term affordability and long-term affordability are related, but they are not the same calculation. Keep both in view.

The Things You Can’t Control About Affordability

When elected officials and media talk about “making housing more affordable,” I have to be honest—I often shake my head. Not because the problem isn’t real, but because the solutions they discuss rarely touch the actual cost drivers.

  • Property Taxes – A perpetual tax on an asset you already own and paid for with after-tax dollars is a strange policy. The property-tax structure is one of the biggest levers on true housing cost. If we were serious about affordability, this would be near the top of the list.
  • Capital Gains – At the federal level (and in many states) the tax friction on selling a property keeps inventory locked up. Reform here would increase supply and improve market function.
  • Over-Regulation of the Mortgage Industry – Yes, we need regulation. I am not arguing for a return to the pre-2008 environment. But the compliance burden that landed on mortgage companies, loan officers, and investors after the financial crisis is enormous. I spend a significant amount of time and money every year simply staying compliant. Those costs do not disappear—they get passed through to the borrower in the form of higher fees and higher rates.
  • Third-party Fees – Eleven years ago a credit pull cost roughly $30–$35. Today it routinely runs $150 or more. Automated verification of employment can add hundreds more. On a recent closing I saw more than $500 in combined credit and VOE costs alone. That’s a roughly 320% Cost of Credit Inquiries – There is no competition or efficiency gain being forced into that system, so the borrower pays.

These are macro and structural issues. Outside of voting and advocating, most of us cannot change them overnight. So let’s talk about what you can control.

What You Can Control Right Now About Affordability

1. Get the right mortgage product—and the right structure.

heap of banknotes beside hourglass

Not every loan is the same. Conventional conforming (Fannie/Freddie), FHA, VA, USDA, and non-QM products all carry different cost structures, different mortgage-insurance rules, and different long-term implications. The term matters too.

A 29-year loan is almost always less expensive over the life of the loan than a 30-year loan, even though the monthly payment is slightly higher. Down-payment amount changes both rate and monthly cost.

Work with a loan officer who will run the actual numbers side-by-side instead of defaulting to the product that is easiest to sell.

2. Negotiate the contract like it matters—because it does.

Three, four, five years ago almost every contract I saw came in above asking price. Appraisals were routinely waived. Inspection items were often left unaddressed. The interest rate was low, so the payment looked affordable—but buyers were financing a higher purchase price and accepting more risk.

Today the rate is higher, which makes the payment feel harder. But I almost never see a contract without meaningful seller concessions. Appraisals are not being waived. Inspection issues are being negotiated and frequently repaired.

Those concessions can be used to pay closing costs, buy down the rate, or both. A skilled real-estate agent who knows how to structure the offer is one of the highest-leverage tools you have for affordability right now.

3. Be careful with down-payment assistance.

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

These programs can be excellent for the right buyer. They can also be expensive. In eleven years I have never seen a “grant” that truly never gets paid back in some form—either through a higher rate, a second lien, or repayment on sale or refinance.

If you need the assistance to close, use it. If you don’t, the extra cost is rarely worth it. Ask your loan officer to show you the true all-in cost before you commit.

4. Master your credit profile deliberately.

I hear this story constantly: “We paid off all our credit cards so we could buy a house.” In many cases that decision does two harmful things at once—it reduces the cash available for down payment and closing costs, and it can actually lower the credit score because of how utilization and length of credit history are calculated.

I am not advocating consumer debt. I dislike it. But before you start paying things off in the name of becoming a stronger buyer, sit down with a loan officer who has access to credit simulators.

We can model the effect of paying down one card versus another, or keeping balances where they are, against your debt-to-income ratio, available cash, and the pricing of the loan. Randomly “cleaning up” credit is one of the most common self-inflicted wounds I see.

5. Build the right team and understand their incentives.

Buying or refinancing a home is a complicated transaction. The people around you matter:

  • A real-estate agent who can negotiate price, concessions, inspections, and timeline.
  • A mortgage lender who will put you in the correct product and structure—not just the one that closes fastest.
  • A CPA who will help you understand the tax implications.
  • A financial advisor who can place real estate inside your broader plan for building wealth and legacy.
person standing on arrow

Every one of those professionals has a bias. A CPA is paid to minimize taxes. A financial advisor is often compensated for assets under management. A good loan officer is paid when the loan closes.

None of that is inherently bad—just know the incentives so you can weigh the advice!

Short-Term and Long-Term Affordability

If you cannot make the payment today, do not buy the house. That is non-negotiable.

But if the payment is workable and you believe—as decades of data support—that residential real estate remains a resilient long-term asset, then you also have tools for the years ahead: refinancing when rates allow, shortening the term as income grows, and making additional principal payments.

Affordability is not only the payment on day one. It is the total cost of ownership over the time you hold the property and the equity you build along the way.

Final Thought

As The Lending Coach, I enjoy talking to people on the phone, explaining the nuances, and helping clients make decisions that support the life and legacy they actually want. Honesty, transparency, and long-term relationships are the only way this business works for me.

If you’re trying to figure out whether a particular house or refinance makes sense in this market, do contact me. I’m happy to run the numbers, walk through the trade-offs, and help you see the full picture.

Reach out to me directly—I’d love to talk strategy and explore how we can best take advantage of market conditions to help you succeed.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Navigating Real Estate Uncertainty: Proven Strategies for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

silver and green padlock and keys

Real estate markets move in cycles, and uncertainty is a natural part of that rhythm. Headlines may highlight shifting rates, changing home prices, or economic questions, but uncertainty shouldn’t mean inactivity.

man holding chess piece

In fact, some of the best opportunities emerge when others are hesitant. For buyers, sellers, and investors who take a thoughtful, strategic approach, today’s market offers meaningful advantages.

Buyers

For buyers, one of the most important realities to understand is competition. When the market feels overheated, bidding wars become common and emotions drive pricing.

In a more balanced or uncertain environment, competition often softens. That can translate into fewer multiple-offer situations, more reasonable pricing, and stronger negotiating power.

Buyers may secure seller concessions, rate buydowns, repair credits, or flexible closing timelines that were nearly impossible to obtain in ultra-competitive markets.

Another advantage of buying now is price stabilization. In uncertain markets, home price growth tends to moderate. That creates breathing room for thoughtful decision-making.

Instead of rushing into a purchase out of fear of being priced out, buyers can evaluate properties carefully and make confident, informed offers.

Over time, real estate has consistently proven to be a strong wealth-building asset, particularly when held for the long term.  Find out more on that here…

Mortgage Rates

Interest rates are always a central concern, but perspective matters. Rates fluctuate over time, and what feels elevated compared to recent historic lows may still be reasonable in a long-term context.

brides holding white bouquet of roses

More importantly, financing is not permanent. A home purchase is long-term; a mortgage is a financial tool that can be refined. Buyers who purchase now can often refinance later if rates improve, but they cannot go back in time to purchase at today’s home values if prices rise again.

Find out more on that here: Marry the House but Date the Rate

Investors

Investors may find especially compelling opportunities in times like these.

When fewer people are aggressively competing for properties, investors can identify assets with stronger cash flow potential and better long-term appreciation prospects. Rental demand often remains steady, particularly as some potential buyers pause their plans.

This dynamic can create favorable conditions for those focused on income-producing real estate.

Hourglass with house

Sellers

For sellers, uncertainty does not eliminate opportunity. It simply shifts strategy.

Proper pricing, thoughtful presentation, and strong marketing become even more important. Serious buyers remain active in every market cycle. When a home is positioned correctly, it attracts motivated buyers who are ready to move forward.

Sellers who understand current conditions and adapt accordingly can still achieve excellent results.

The Right Strategy

Financing strategy is where real clarity can make a difference.

Creative solutions such as temporary rate buy-downs, adjustable-rate products for shorter holding periods, or structured refinance plans can significantly improve affordability and flexibility.

When financing is approached strategically rather than reactively, buyers and investors gain control over their long-term financial trajectory.

It is also important to remember that life events do not pause for market cycles. Families grow, careers change, relocations happen, and investment goals evolve.

person putting coin in a piggy bank

The right time to buy is frequently when the property fits your needs, the numbers make sense, and you have a solid financial plan in place.

Waiting for a “perfect” market often means delaying personal and financial progress.

In Conclusion

Uncertainty rewards preparation and guidance. With a clear strategy, realistic expectations, and thoughtful financing, today’s market can present exceptional opportunities.

Buyers can negotiate more effectively, sellers can stand out with the right positioning, and investors can secure long-term assets with confidence.

Real estate remains one of the most powerful tools for building wealth, and with the right coaching and planning, now can be an excellent time to move forward.

If you’d like help translating these ideas into a personalized strategy, a focused conversation can help clarify next steps — based on your goals, timeline, and financial picture.

Do reach out directly to me to begin crafting your plan!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

Lending Coach Title Bar

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Time In the Market Beats Timing the Market

close up of a sundial

Waiting feels safe. Until you actually do the math!

close up shot of a pocket watch

As we move further into 2026, this is worth pondering for a minute, especially with mortgage rates moving slightly lower over the last month or so.

Let’s rewind the last few years…

2019: “I’ll wait for a crash.”
2020: “Pandemic. Here it comes.”
2021: “Prices are crazy. I’ll wait.”
2022: “Rates are too high.”
2023: “Still overpriced.”
2024: “Election year. I’ll wait.”
2025: Still renting. Still waiting.

Meanwhile, the people everyone called panic buyers? Their homes are worth roughly 30% to 50% more. They’ve built six years of equity. They haven’t written a rent check in years.

The crash everyone keeps waiting for? Even a 15% correction still puts today’s prices well above 2019. If you’ve waited and tried to time the market, you’re still behind…and now you’ve paid rent the entire time.

people holding a miniature wooden house


There’s one more thing that is rarely mentioned: if prices do dip, every sidelined buyer rushes in at once. Inventory tightens. Multiple offers return. That “deal” turns into a bidding war. You end up overpaying anyway, just years later.

Time in the market keeps beating timing the market. Every year you wait has a cost. Appreciation you don’t get back. Equity you never build. Rent you never recover.

Everyone’s situation is different – that’s for sure – and buying isn’t right for everyone, and that matters. But if homeownership is a goal at some point, it’s worth having an honest conversation about what options actually exist today. 

And it would be my pleasure to help!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach title bar

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Lending Coach Special Podcast: 2026 Mortgage and Real Estate Forecast

Spotify picture of podcast

I was fortunate enough to be interviewed on a podcast recently to discuss my 2026 Mortgage and Real Estate Forecast.

You can find the original forecast here…

Forecast picture

This podcast is a very deep dive into what we can expect in 2026 and the factors that go into my prediction. I’d invite you to take a listen!

Here’s the podcast link:

Spotify picture of podcast

I hope you find it interesting, and feel free to reach out directly to me to discuss it further.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach title bar

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

The Lending Coach 2026 Forecast: A Deeper Look at the Economy, Rates, and Real Estate

As each year comes to a close, homeowners, buyers, and real estate professionals naturally start looking ahead. The questions are familiar — but the stakes always feel higher.

person holding hour glass

Where is the economy headed?
Will mortgage rates finally come down?
What does all of this mean for home prices and opportunity in real estate?

Let’s walk step by step through the key forces shaping the year ahead.

Rather than focusing on headlines or short-term noise, this outlook looks at the underlying drivers that influence interest rates, housing demand, and long-term opportunity.


1. The Economics: Inflation, Employment, and the Foundation of the Market

Economic conditions sit at the core of every housing and mortgage decision.

Inflation, employment, and consumer behavior all feed directly into interest rates — and ultimately affordability.

At first glance, inflation appears stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, a deeper look shows that inflation is meaningfully overstated, primarily due to how shelter costs are calculated.

Housing inflation is reported with long delays. Government agencies only survey a portion of the country each month, and rent data often reflects lease agreements signed many months earlier.

Meanwhile, real-time data sources show rents declining across much of the country — a trend that has not yet been fully captured in official inflation reports.

Shelter costs carry enormous weight in inflation metrics:

  • More than one-third of headline CPI
  • Nearly half of core CPI

This means even small delays or distortions in housing data can significantly skew inflation readings. When adjusted for these delays — along with temporary factors like tariffs and portfolio fee calculations — true inflation appears much closer to the Fed’s target than reported figures suggest.

In fact, today’s Truflation number is right at 2% as of this writing.  More on that here…

At the same time, the labor market is clearly weakening. Job openings have steadily declined, private payroll data has shown multiple months of job losses, and unemployment continues to trend higher.

Initial jobless claims may appear low, but they no longer tell the full story. In today’s gig-based economy, many displaced workers turn to alternative income sources rather than filing unemployment claims — which understates the true level of labor market stress.

The economic takeaway:
Inflation is cooling faster than headlines suggest, while employment conditions are deteriorating — a combination that historically leads to lower interest rates and policy intervention.


2. The Federal Reserve: Policy Direction and the Shift Toward Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: controlling inflation and maintaining maximum employment.

As inflation pressures ease and labor weakness becomes harder to ignore, the Fed’s priorities naturally begin to shift.

Looking ahead to 2026, several important factors suggest a more accommodative Fed:

  • A voting composition that leans more dovish
  • Rising unemployment
  • Inflation readings that continue to drift lower as shelter data catches up

While most forecasts call for minimal rate cuts in 2026, I actually anticipate a more proactive response. My outlook calls for three quarter-point cuts, bringing the Fed Funds rate down to approximately 2.875%.

This expectation is based on two key assumptions:

  1. Inflation is less threatening than official numbers suggest
  2. The labor market is weaker than widely acknowledged

When those realities become undeniable, the Fed historically acts to prevent deeper economic damage.

Why this matters:
Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its policy decisions heavily influence bond markets, investor confidence, and the cost of borrowing across the economy — all of which feed into mortgage pricing.

3. Mortgage Rates: Understanding the Path to Lower Borrowing Costs

Mortgage rates are primarily driven by two components:

  • The 10-year Treasury yield
  • The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities

For 2026, I project the 10-year Treasury reaching a low near 3.85%, supported by:

  • Slowing economic growth
  • Lower inflation expectations
  • Fed rate cuts
  • Increased demand for bonds

In recent years, mortgage rate spreads widened significantly due to volatility, uncertainty, and reduced demand for mortgage-backed securities. As market confidence improves, these spreads are expected to normalize toward historical ranges.

Historically, mortgage spreads typically fall between 1.6% and 2.0%. While current levels remain elevated, continued normalization could place spreads closer to the middle of that range.

Combining these factors:

  • A 10-year Treasury near 3.85%
  • A spread near 1.9%

This supports a projected 30-year fixed mortgage rate around 5.75%, with the potential to move closer to 5.625% if conditions improve further.

For homeowners and buyers:
Lower rates improve affordability, unlock refinancing opportunities, and act as a catalyst for increased housing activity.

4. Real Estate: Supply, Demand, and the Return of Buyer Activity

Housing demand has cooled sharply in response to higher mortgage rates, but this decline should not be confused with a lack of interest in homeownership.

Instead, the market is experiencing pent-up demand — buyers who are financially ready but waiting for affordability to improve.

At the same time, housing supply remains constrained:

  • Builders have reduced new construction to match slower demand
  • Inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels when adjusted for population growth
  • Active listings have risen from historic lows but are now beginning to flatten

As mortgage rates ease, demand is expected to return faster than supply can respond. Builders cannot ramp up production overnight, and existing homeowners remain hesitant to sell unless affordability improves.

This imbalance supports:

  • Increased transaction volume
  • Stabilizing inventory
  • Continued upward pressure on home prices

While appreciation will vary by market, the national picture suggests a return to more typical, sustainable growth rather than the extremes of recent years.


5. The Lending Coach Forecast: What 2026 May Bring

Based on economic trends, policy expectations, and housing fundamentals, my 2026 forecast includes:

  • Unemployment: Rising toward 4.8%, potentially higher
  • Core Inflation: Around 2.5%, with true inflation likely closer to 2%
  • Fed Funds Rate: Approximately 2.875%
  • Mortgage Rates: A low near 5.75%, with potential to reach 5.625%
  • Home Price Appreciation: Approximately 3% nationally

These figures represent national averages. Local market conditions — such as job growth, migration, and housing supply — will determine individual outcomes.


Final Thoughts: Strategy Matters More Than Timing

The outlook for 2026 suggests a market transitioning toward greater balance — one where opportunity exists, but smart planning matters more than speculation.

  • For buyers, lower rates may finally restore affordability.
  • For homeowners, refinancing opportunities could reemerge.
  • For long-term investors, steady appreciation continues to support real estate as a wealth-building tool.
a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

Understanding how the economy, Federal Reserve policy, mortgage rates, and housing supply interact allows you to make decisions with confidence — not emotion.

The most successful moves in real estate are rarely about reacting quickly. They’re about preparing thoughtfully and acting when the conditions align.

If you’d like help translating this outlook into a personalized strategy, a focused conversation can help clarify next steps — based on your goals, timeline, and financial picture.

Do reach out directly to me to begin crafting your plan!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

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