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Mortgage Rates Over the Past Three Weeks: What’s Changed

orange calculator beside the black smartphone

Over roughly the last three weeks, U.S. mortgage rates have edged downward, reaching their lowest levels in about a year.

According to Freddie Mac’s most recent data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.30 % from 6.34 %.

heap of banknotes beside hourglass

This decline is modest, but meaningful in the current interest rate environment — especially given how tightly rates have been trading lately.

In prior weeks, there was also a rebound in rates: for example, the week ending October 2 saw average rates rise from 6.30 % to 6.34 %, as Treasury yields ticked upward.

But the recent movement has tilted downward again, amid growing caution about economic strength.

Recent Months to Today

  • As of October 14, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.30 % — down from 6.34 % the prior week.
  • Over the past several weeks, rates have settled in their lowest band in roughly a year.
  • Earlier in 2025, rates were higher — in many places above 6.8 % or even close to 7.0 % for conforming loans, depending on timing and market conditions.
  • Looking back further, we see that since 1971, the long-term average 30-year fixed rate is about 7.71 % (through 2025)
  • In other words, current rates are still below that historical average, though far from the ultra-low rates seen in the 2010s and early 2020s.

Why Rates Are Moving: Key Drivers

To understand why mortgage rates have shifted, it helps to zoom out and see the levers that push long-term borrowing costs:

1. Treasury yields & the bond market

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

Mortgage rates are closely linked to longer-term Treasury yields (especially the 10-year). When investors buy Treasurys, yields fall; when they sell, yields rise. Mortgage lenders price based on these benchmarks.

In recent weeks, Treasury yields have shown some softness, reflecting investor appetite for safer assets amid economic uncertainty. That downward pressure on yields helps bring mortgage rates lower.

2. Economic data & inflation

Every inflation report, employment release, and GDP update can swing expectations about future interest rates. If inflation shows signs of sticking higher, markets will demand higher yields (and mortgage rates) to compensate.

Conversely, weak jobs or growth data can boost expectations of rate cuts and push long yields lower.

In recent weeks, signs of softening in labor markets have grown more pronounced, which has helped ease rate pressures.

3. Federal Reserve policy expectations

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly—but its policy decisions and forward guidance are central to rate expectations. Markets are watching how many cuts the Fed will enact in 2025 (and how fast) and how strongly it will resist inflation.

Recently, the Fed has signaled caution, acknowledging that inflation risks remain. But weaker labor data may give it more room to ease.

4. Supply, demand & housing market sentiment

Mortgage rate movement also reacts to credit demand, lender competition, and overall confidence in the housing market. As rates dip, some borrowers respond quickly with refinance or purchase activity. That can feed back into pricing dynamics.

yellow flowers in bloom

In fact, even small rate reductions lately have triggered increases in refinancing inquiries.

Also, broader uncertainties — such as the current U.S. government shutdown — create additional caution in markets, which can tilt toward lower yields (and lower mortgage rates).

What to Watch Next: Forward Outlook & Risks

Given where we are, here’s what I see as the main potential paths forward — and what borrowers should watch for.

Base Case: Modest Further Decline or Plateau

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to stay where they are or possibly drift modestly lower through late 2025. For example, Fannie Mae recently revised its year-end expectation to 6.4 %, and 2026 to ~6.0 %.

  • Other analysts believe rates will more or less stay in the 6.2 %–6.6 % range through year-end, depending on economic data.
  • If inflation continues to ease and labor markets soften, bond yields could fall further, dragging mortgage rates down with them.

Upside Risk: Rates Could Rise

  • If inflation surprises to the upside, markets could push yields (and thus mortgage rates) higher.
  • Strong economic data — especially in jobs, consumer spending, or corporate profits — could make the Fed more reluctant to cut or even force it to reconsider policy tightening, which would ripple through longer-term yields.
  • Global or fiscal surprises (e.g. government shutdowns, debt ceiling worries, geopolitical events) can trigger volatility in bond markets, pushing rates upward.

Final Takeaways for Borrowers & Homebuyers

It’s not a dramatic rate cut that is in play — the recent moves are incremental.  But every basis point matters when you’re financing a large amount.

a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

If you’re in the market now and your numbers make sense, don’t wait on “perfect” rates. Locking something in is often better than trying to time the bottom.

Also, do keep a close eye on inflation numbers, payrolls/unemployment data, and Fed communications. These will be the levers moving rates in the coming weeks.

Finally, for clients who are refinancing or planning purchases in 2025, building in some “wiggle room” (i.e. rate buffers) is prudent given the potential volatility.

Reach out to me today to discuss your current situation and to make sure you are not missing out.  I’d be happy work with you and explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Now’s the Time: Mortgage Rates Are Dropping, but the Window May Be Short

Mortgage rate drop image

Mortgage interest rates have taken a welcome step lower in the past nine days—and that means homeowners have a fresh opportunity to refinance.

wood items besides stacks of coins

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate slid to 6.35% the week ending September 11, down about 0.15% from the prior week.

The 15-year and 20-year fixed fell as well, landing around 5.875%.

For investment properties and 2nd homes, we are seeing rates in the mid 6% range, as well.

Other industry surveys—BankrateMoney.com, and Reuters—are showing similar declines across the board.

What’s Driving the Drop

The reason for the dip lies in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, has retreated in recent days.

Investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting short-term interest rates later this month.

Combined with softer labor market data and easing inflation pressure, long-term yields have fallen—and mortgage rates have followed.

Treasury Dips Don’t Last Long

If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Since mid-2023, there have been eight significant downward moves in the 10-year Treasury yield.

You can see them highlighted in the chart above.

Each one of those dips lasted anywhere from just three days to three weeks before the trend reversed and rates climbed again.

black and white analog watch

That’s the key takeaway: lower-rate windows don’t last long. Waiting to see if rates fall further often means missing the opportunity altogether.

Why Refinancing Now Makes Sense

If you bought a home within the past two and a half years, there’s a good chance your mortgage rate is higher than where the market is today.

Even a small rate reduction can create meaningful monthly savings and improve long-term financial flexibility.

If you’ve recently completed a cash-out refinance, now may be an especially smart time to review your options. Lowering your interest rate can reduce the cost of carrying that debt, even if you pulled equity from your home earlier this year.

Beyond lowering monthly payments, refinancing may also help you:

  • Switch from a 30-year to a 15- or 20-year term, paying off your home faster.
  • Consolidate higher-interest debt into your mortgage at a lower rate.
  • Remove mortgage insurance if you’ve built enough equity.

The Time to Act Is Now

blue arcade joystick

Rates are still volatile.

Inflation readings, labor reports, and Federal Reserve announcements can all shift the bond market quickly. The history since 2023 is clear: when Treasury yields dip, mortgage rates dip too—but they rarely stay down for long.

That’s why now is the time to act.

If your current mortgage is above today’s averages, let’s run the numbers together. Locking in while rates are on the downside could secure savings that last for years to come.

Here’s The Bottom Line

Lower rates don’t wait around. If you’ve bought a home in the past 2.5 years or completed a recent cash-out refinance, this is your window to refinance into a smarter mortgage.

Reach out to me today to make sure you are not missing out and we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The Lending Coach

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

February Mortgage Rate Projections – Things Are Getting Better

Block home in hands

Mortgage Rates have improved considerably from their peak in the high 7% range.

Cash graphic

Their trajectory this year will be highly influenced by the path of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions.

After hiking rates at one of the fastest paces we have ever seen in history to help reduce very high inflation, the market is anticipating that the Fed will begin cutting rates and slow the reduction of their balance sheet.

These actions should help lower mortgage rates.

Inflation Watch

One of the most important items the Fed is watching is their preferred measure of inflation, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which will need to move confidently towards their 2% target.

Looking through binoculars

The most recent inflation reading shows that Core inflation is at 2.9%, which is still above the Fed’s target. 

But the recent 6-month pace is trending at 1.85% on an annual basis and shows that inflation is heading where the Fed wants, it will likely just take some time.

The market is expecting that the Fed should start cutting rates at their May 1 meeting.  If this translates to lower mortgage rates, the additional home buying interest would most likely support home prices rising further.

Home Prices and Mortgage Rates

Housing prices in the US were surprisingly resilient last year in the face of a jump in mortgage rates. Most experts see anywhere between 6% to 7% home price appreciation in 2023 when those final numbers are announced.

Blocks and coins

Now, with the prospect of interest rate cuts on the horizon, home prices are expected to climb more than previously anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Rates have dropped to their lowest level since June 2022 recently and are now hovering in the mid-6 percent range. The decline in rates has opened up demand, which experts say is elevating prices, partly because of the low inventory of homes available for buyers.

In simple terms, lower mortgage rates will lead to more expensive homes in the future – and waiting to purchase will more than likely cost buyers more money.

If you’d like to find out more and discuss strategy moving into 2024, don’t hesitate to reach out to me!

Lending Coach Title Bar

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Buy Now and Refi Later with no Lender Fees – Buy-Fi!

Buy Now Refi Later Poster

There’s a predicament facing potential buyers today.  Should they wait until the mortgage and housing markets quiet down or move ahead in this unsettling economic environment?

person with keys for real estate

A better question might be, “As a buyer, what are you waiting to see: mortgage rates to come down, prices to come down, or both?”

Most do believe that mortgage rates will come down in the near future, and you can find more on that here in my 2023 forecast…and there’s a ton of data to support that position.

Home Prices

Regarding home prices, however, most are still forecasting increases in home values.  While listing prices may be coming down, sales prices are still rising from the same month a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the median sales price for November 2022 was up 3.5% from November 2021. Most expect December’s numbers to be in line.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR at their recent annual conference, forecasts home price appreciation for 2023 at +1% and for 2024 at +5%.  So prices aren’t expected to go down.

So what’s a buyer to do?  Well, I’d recommend that they marry the house, but date the rate.  More on that here…as houses aren’t going to get any cheaper!

And I have another program in place that will help offset some of the refinance costs down the road…it’s called Buy-Fi.

How does Buy-Fi work?

Here are the specifics…

Apply with The Lending Coach for the purchase of your new home

Close on that purchase home loan before 4/30/23

I’ll watch interest rates and when they drop, I’ve got you covered

Refinance any time before 12/31/24 and I’ll waive your lender fees

Buyers can find out more regarding the specific terms and conditions on Buy-Fi here…

One final thought, owning real estate allows individuals to benefit from inflation on that large asset. The leverage from using borrowed funds to finance the purchase creates leverage that additionally works in favor of the buyer.

And residential real estate generally does extraordinarily well during inflationary/recessionary periods!

Please do reach out to me to find out more, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

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Now Is A Great Time To Refinance That Investment Property

red house clipart

Mortgage rates are at all-time lows.  Many homeowner’s are taking advantage and locking in for the long term.  But what about investors, are they doing the same?

Refinancing rental properties can unlock a good deal of wealth-building opportunities for investors, including the ability to lower interest rates and monthly payments, improve loan terms, and earn additional cash flow.

green piggy bank with a calculator

Interestingly, many investors have not taken advantage of today’s market.

For one reason or another, there are a number of investors that don’t even realize the opportunity that’s in front of them.

Should I Refinance My Rental Property?

In most cases, investors should consider a refinance to:

  • Lower the mortgage rate
  • Convert from an ARM to a fixed-rate
  • Turn a hard money loan into a conventional one
  • Pay off the loan more quickly
  • Upgrade a current investment property
person typing on a computer

Much has changed in a relatively short period of time regarding rates and valuations…and they are almost all in favor of the investor.

As mentioned earlier, interest rates are historically low…and they look a lot better than they did even this time last year, let alone a few years ago.

5.75% versus 4.5% example

If you purchased an investment property in October of last year, for example, many borrowers took on mortgages with an interest rate in the high 5% range.

Today, if that investor were to refinance their $250,000 loan from 5.75% to 4.5% for example, they would save nearly $200 per month.

There might be some discount points involved depending on the scenario, but they can be financed into the loan amount, so the only out-of-pocket cost would be that of an appraisal.

coins with monopoly houses

Assumptions: $250K loan, 70% loan-to-value and 760+ credit score

In Conclusion

When you own an investment property, the goal is to earn a solid rate of return…and refinancing that property can increase your short-term cash flow and help you build longer-term wealth.

Do reach out to me for more, as it would be my pleasure to help you look at different options and programs that might help you in today’s market.

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