The Lending Coach

Coaching and teaching - many through the mortgage process and others on the field

Tag: refinance (Page 1 of 2)

February Mortgage Rate Projections – Things Are Getting Better

February 2, 2024 /

Mortgage Rates have improved considerably from their peak in the high 7% range.

Their trajectory this year will be highly influenced by the path of inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions.

After hiking rates at one of the fastest paces we have ever seen in history to help reduce very high inflation, the market is anticipating that the Fed will begin cutting rates and slow the reduction of their balance sheet.

These actions should help lower mortgage rates.

Inflation Watch

One of the most important items the Fed is watching is their preferred measure of inflation, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which will need to move confidently towards their 2% target.

The most recent inflation reading shows that Core inflation is at 2.9%, which is still above the Fed’s target. 

But the recent 6-month pace is trending at 1.85% on an annual basis and shows that inflation is heading where the Fed wants, it will likely just take some time.

The market is expecting that the Fed should start cutting rates at their May 1 meeting.  If this translates to lower mortgage rates, the additional home buying interest would most likely support home prices rising further.

Home Prices and Mortgage Rates

Housing prices in the US were surprisingly resilient last year in the face of a jump in mortgage rates. Most experts see anywhere between 6% to 7% home price appreciation in 2023 when those final numbers are announced.

Now, with the prospect of interest rate cuts on the horizon, home prices are expected to climb more than previously anticipated, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Rates have dropped to their lowest level since June 2022 recently and are now hovering in the mid-6 percent range. The decline in rates has opened up demand, which experts say is elevating prices, partly because of the low inventory of homes available for buyers.

In simple terms, lower mortgage rates will lead to more expensive homes in the future – and waiting to purchase will more than likely cost buyers more money.

If you’d like to find out more and discuss strategy moving into 2024, don’t hesitate to reach out to me!

Buy Now and Refi Later with no Lender Fees – Buy-Fi!

January 9, 2023 /

There’s a predicament facing potential buyers today.  Should they wait until the mortgage and housing markets quiet down or move ahead in this unsettling economic environment?

person with keys for real estate

A better question might be, “As a buyer, what are you waiting to see: mortgage rates to come down, prices to come down, or both?”

Most do believe that mortgage rates will come down in the near future, and you can find more on that here in my 2023 forecast…and there’s a ton of data to support that position.

Home Prices

Regarding home prices, however, most are still forecasting increases in home values.  While listing prices may be coming down, sales prices are still rising from the same month a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the median sales price for November 2022 was up 3.5% from November 2021. Most expect December’s numbers to be in line.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR at their recent annual conference, forecasts home price appreciation for 2023 at +1% and for 2024 at +5%.  So prices aren’t expected to go down.

So what’s a buyer to do?  Well, I’d recommend that they marry the house, but date the rate.  More on that here…as houses aren’t going to get any cheaper!

And I have another program in place that will help offset some of the refinance costs down the road…it’s called Buy-Fi.

How does Buy-Fi work?

Here are the specifics…

– Apply with The Lending Coach for the purchase of your new home

– Close on that purchase home loan before 4/30/23

– I’ll watch interest rates and when they drop, I’ve got you covered

– Refinance any time before 12/31/24 and I’ll waive your lender fees

Buyers can find out more regarding the specific terms and conditions on Buy-Fi here…

One final thought, owning real estate allows individuals to benefit from inflation on that large asset. The leverage from using borrowed funds to finance the purchase creates leverage that additionally works in favor of the buyer.

And residential real estate generally does extraordinarily well during inflationary/recessionary periods!

Please do reach out to me to find out more, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

Now Is A Great Time To Refinance That Investment Property

June 25, 2020 /

Mortgage rates are at all-time lows.  Many homeowner’s are taking advantage and locking in for the long term.  But what about investors, are they doing the same?

Refinancing rental properties can unlock a good deal of wealth-building opportunities for investors, including the ability to lower interest rates and monthly payments, improve loan terms, and earn additional cash flow.

Interestingly, many investors have not taken advantage of today’s market.

For one reason or another, there are a number of investors that don’t even realize the opportunity that’s in front of them.

Should I Refinance My Rental Property?

In most cases, investors should consider a refinance to:

  • Lower the mortgage rate
  • Convert from an ARM to a fixed-rate
  • Turn a hard money loan into a conventional one
  • Pay off the loan more quickly
  • Upgrade a current investment property

Much has changed in a relatively short period of time regarding rates and valuations…and they are almost all in favor of the investor.

As mentioned earlier, interest rates are historically low…and they look a lot better than they did even this time last year, let alone a few years ago.

5.75% versus 4.5% example

If you purchased an investment property in October of last year, for example, many borrowers took on mortgages with an interest rate in the high 5% range.

Today, if that investor were to refinance their $250,000 loan from 5.75% to 4.5% for example, they would save nearly $200 per month.

There might be some discount points involved depending on the scenario, but they can be financed into the loan amount, so the only out-of-pocket cost would be that of an appraisal.

Assumptions: $250K loan, 70% loan-to-value and 760+ credit score

In Conclusion

When you own an investment property, the goal is to earn a solid rate of return…and refinancing that property can increase your short-term cash flow and help you build longer-term wealth.

Do reach out to me for more, as it would be my pleasure to help you look at different options and programs that might help you in today’s market.

Economic Turbulence on the Horizon – Recession, Rates, and Real Estate

September 7, 2019 /

It does look like most economists are pointing to a recession (although most do think it will be relatively mild by historical standards) in the next 12 months.

A recession occurs when there are two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, meaning GDP growth contracts during a recession.

When an economy is facing recession, business sales and revenues decrease, which cause businesses to stop expanding.

How do the economists know this?  And what does this mean for interest rates and real estate values?  Read on for more…

Recessionary Indicators

The Yield Curve

One of the major indicators for an upcoming recession is the spread between the 10-year US treasury yield and the 2-year US treasury yield.

While various economic or market commentators may focus on different parts of the yield curve, any inversion of the yield curve tells the story – an expectation of weaker growth in the future.

What does this inverted yield curve look like?  Here’s a good depiction:

Why does inversion matter?  Well, the yield curve inversion is a classic signal of a looming recession. 

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time. 

When short-term yields climb above longer-dated ones, it signals short-term borrowing costs are more expensive than longer-term loan costs. 

Under these circumstances, companies often find it more expensive to fund their operations, and executives tend to temper or shelve investments.

Consumer borrowing costs also rise and consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slows.

Unemployment

Unemployment is a recessionary factor, too – as economic growth slows, companies generate less revenue and lay off workers to cut costs.

A rapid increase in the overall unemployment levels—even if relatively small—has been an accurate indication that a recession is underway.

Here’s a chart that shows what happens when unemployment starts to trend upward – and notice that recessions follow shortly thereafter:

As you can see, when things in the economy starts to slow down, one of the first things business do is to reduce their labor force.  The curve is flatting now, and unemployment might be ticking up soon.

Mortgage Rates During Recession

When a recession hits, the Federal Reserve prefers rates to be low. The prevailing logic is low-interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, which stimulates the economy.

During a recession, the demand for credit actually declines, so the price of credit falls to entice borrowing activity. 

Here’s a quick snapshot of what mortgage rates have done during recessionary periods:

Obtaining a mortgage during a recession might actually be a good opportunity. As mentioned, when the economy is sluggish, interest rates tend to drop.

Refinancing or purchasing a new home could be a great way to get in at the bottom of the market and make a healthy profit down the road. A borrower should be market- and financially savvy when considering large real estate purchases in a recession

Real Estate During Recession

Believe it or not, outside of the “great recession” of 2007 (which was caused, in part, to a housing crisis), home values and real estate actually appreciate historically during times of recession.

That seems counter intuitive…but because interest rates generally drop during recessionary periods, homes become MORE affordable to potential buyers (even though property values are higher), due to the lower payments provided by those lower rates.

When more people can qualify for homes, the demand for housing increases – and so do home prices.

In Closing

Although no one likes to see recession, you can observe that it actually can be beneficial for homeowners and would-be purchasers to refinance or purchase during these periods.

If you have more questions and or would like to strategize about purchasing or refinancing, don’t hesitate to contact me, as it would be my pleasure to help you!

Which Is Better: Cash-Out Refinance or a HELOC?

September 3, 2019 /

When you need cash for home improvements, school tuition, a down payment for a 2nd home, or debt consolidation, you might want to consider tapping into what could be your greatest source of wealth — your home equity.

Interestingly, there is more than one way to access your home equity – so it’s smart to compare available options to find the right fit.

Two of the most popular ways are a home equity line of credit (HELOC) and a cash-out refinance. Both of these loans can work if you want to access your home equity, but they do work rather differently.

The “Cash-Out” Refinance

Cash-out refinancing involves replacing your current home loan with a new one. The “cashing out” part of the equation means you essentially take out a larger home loan than you currently have so you can receive the difference as a lump sum. This strategy works for those who have equity in their homes due to paying down their mortgage balances or appreciation of their property.

To qualify for a cash-out refinance, you need to meet similar requirements as you would if you were applying for a first mortgage – and you must have the equity in your home to qualify, as well.  You can borrow up to 80% of your home’s value.

So, let’s assume your home has a value of $300,000 and you want to take cash out. In that case, you could only borrow up to $240,000 through a cash-out refinance. If you owe that much or more on your home already, you wouldn’t qualify.

The Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

While a cash-out refinance requires you to replace your current mortgage with a new one, a HELOC lets you keep your first mortgage exactly how it is.

Acting as a second mortgage, a HELOC lets you borrow against your home equity via a line of credit. This strategy allows you to withdraw the money you want when you want it, then repay only the amounts you borrow.

You now have two mortgage payments to make each month – your first mortgage payment and the new HELOC.

To qualify for a HELOC, you need to have equity in your home. Depending on your creditworthiness and how much debt you have, you may be able to borrow up to 85% of the appraised value of your home after you subtract the balance of your first mortgage.

For example, let’s say your home is worth $300,000 and the balance on your mortgage is currently $200,000. A HELOC could make it possible for you to borrow up to $255,000, because you would still retain 85% equity after accounting for your first mortgage and your HELOC.

Generally speaking, HELOCs work a lot like a credit card. You typically have a “draw period” during which you can take out money to use for any purpose. Once that period ends, you may have the option to repay the loan amount over a specific amount of time or you might be required to repay the balance in full.

Like credit cards, HELOCs also tend to come with variable interest rates, so you should be prepared for some rate volatility.

Key Differentiators

Before you decide between a HELOC or a cash-out refinance, it helps to do some analysis on your personal finances and your overall goals.

A cash-out refinance may work better if:

  • Your current home loan has a higher rate than you could qualify for now, so refinancing could help you save on interest
  • You need more than $50,000 overall
  • You prefer the stability of a fixed monthly payment or only want to make one mortgage payment every month
  • You have high-interest debts and want to consolidate them at the same rate as your new mortgage
  • What you save by refinancing — such as savings from a lower interest rate — outweighs the fees that come with refinancing
  • You are able to roll your closing costs/fees into the new loan amount so there are no out-of-pocket costs

A HELOC may work better if:

  • You are happy with your first mortgage and don’t want to trade it for a new loan
  • You need less than $50,000 overall
  • Your first mortgage has a lower interest rate than you can qualify for with today’s rates
  • You aren’t sure how much money you need, so you prefer the flexibility of having a line of credit you can borrow against
  • You want to be able to borrow up to 85% of your home’s value versus the 80% you can borrow with a cash-out refinance

Here’s a quick “snapshot” of two different options – notice how the smaller transaction works well with the HELOC, the larger one with the refinance.

As you can see, for the smaller transaction, the HELOC is less expensive overall – both in fees and monthly payment. However, once you go over the $50,000 mark in cash-back, it appears that the cash-out refinance is the most economical, all things considered.

I’d invite you to find out more from Gina Pogol at The Mortgage Reports here….and Holly Johnson at Magnify Money here….

HELOC Pros and Cons

Pros

  • Applying for a HELOC allows you to maintain the terms of your original mortgage, which can be an advantage if your rate is low.
  • You can use money from a HELOC for anything you want, and you only have to repay amounts you borrow.
  • HELOCs tend to come with lower closing costs than traditional mortgages and home equity loans.
  • HELOCs can generally be closed quicker than refinances

Cons

  • Taking out a HELOC means you’ll need to make two housing payments every month — your first mortgage payment and your HELOC payment.
  • Interest on a HELOC is no longer tax-deductible, unless the funds are used for acquisition or updating your home.
  • They are more expensive the more you borrow – if you are needing more than $50,000, your payments might be higher than that of a refinance
  • Since you only repay what you borrow and the interest rate on HELOCs is typically variable, you may not be able to anticipate what your monthly payment will be. Your monthly payment could also be interest only at first, meaning your payment won’t go toward the principal or help pay down the balance of your loan.
  • The interest rate on HELOCs tends to be higher than first mortgages, and their variable rates can seem riskier. You may also be required to pay a balloon payment at the end of your loan, so make sure to read and understand the terms and conditions.

Refinance Pros and Cons

Pros

  • You can use the money from a cash-out refinance for anything you want, including home upgrades, college tuition, a vacation or debt consolidation.
  • If rates have gone down or your credit has improved since you took out your original home loan, you could refinance your mortgage into a new loan with a lower interest rate.
  • You can choose from different types of loans for your refinance, with various terms and fixed or variable rates available.
  • Interest on your first mortgage may be tax-deductible.
  • Interest rates on first mortgages tend to be lower than other options, such as home equity loans or HELOCs.

Cons

  • Closing costs for a cash-out refinance are typically higher than those of a HELOC
  • If interest rates have gone up since you purchased your home, you could be trading your mortgage for a higher interest loan that will be more expensive.
  • Refinancing your home to take cash out may leave you in mortgage debt longer.
  • You won’t qualify for a cash-out refinance unless you have at least 80% equity in your home after the process is complete.

In Conclusion

As you can see, there’s really no right or wrong decision to be made here, but it is important that you know the benefits and drawbacks of both options. Please do reach out to me for more information, as I’d be happy to go over the specifics of your scenario to find the best option.

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