Category: Housing Market (Page 1 of 40)

The 2026 Mortgage Playbook: How to Use Today’s Market to Build Wealth Faster — Even Before Rates Drop

December 8, 2025 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

Most buyers today are waiting. Waiting for rates to fall, waiting for the “right time,” waiting for the market to feel calm again.

But here’s the truth: those who wait often lose the most. In real estate, time in the market almost always beats perfect timing of the market.

As The Lending Coach, my job isn’t just to quote a rate and send my clients on their way. My goal is to help them use the market as it is today to move closer to their long-term wealth goals.

And right now, 2026 looks to be full of smart opportunities—if you know where to look.

Why Waiting for Rates to Move Can Cost You More

Rates get all the headlines, but home prices usually tell the real story. Historically, when rates rise, home prices may slow—but they rarely fall in a meaningful way.

And once rates drop, competition floods back in, pushing prices up even faster.

This creates a common trap:
Buyers wait for rates to fall…
Rates finally fall…
Prices jump…
And the “savings” disappear.

Your best advantage is often to buy the home before everyone else comes off the sidelines.

Smart Ways to Win in Today’s Market

basketball coach strategizing on tactics board

You don’t need to wait for the perfect rate to put yourself in a strong financial position. You just need the right strategy. Here are a few powerful tools that can help you take advantage of today’s conditions:

1. Permanent Rate Buydowns

In today’s purchase market, many sellers are willing to give concessions to buyers. Many of my clients are using those concessions to buy down their mortgage rate using discount points. More on that here…

Many clients are able to move their 30-year rate into the mid-to-high 5% range, setting them up for lower payments over the life of the loan.

2. Temporary Buydowns (1-0, 2-1, 3-2-1)

These are fantastic for easing into your payment while you grow into the home—or while waiting for a future refinance opportunity.

Like I mentioned earlier, sellers are offering concessions more often right now, which means buydowns can often be funded without increasing your out-of-pocket cost.

3. Refinancing Strategy (“Marry the House, Date the Rate”—Done the Right Way)

This isn’t about chasing rates with blind optimism.

It’s about having a planned refinance strategy based on market indicators, equity targets, and short-term affordability. When done correctly, today’s purchase can position you for tomorrow’s lower payment without missing appreciation.

4. Adjustable-Rate Options Built for Shorter Time Horizons

ARMs aren’t for everyone, but they can make perfect sense for buyers planning to move, upgrade, or refinance within a structured timeline. When used strategically, they can lower your payment and maximize your cashflow.

5. The Term of Your Loan is Paramount

The most common length of a mortgage is 30-years. But 20-year and 15-year options exist, too.

Yes, the payment will be larger, but not as high as you might think. The good news: mortgage rates are generally lower for 20-year and 15-year fixed mortgages.

More importantly, the amount of money going to principal versus interest is dramatic with loans of shorter duration. I’d be happy to show you the amortization schedule of a 30-year loan versus a 20-year loan.

You will be amazed at how you can build equity much faster this way!

6. Homebuyer Coaching to Align Decisions With Long-Term Goals

One of the biggest advantages you can give yourself is working with a mortgage professional who understands your goals—not just your application. A step-by-step plan can help you make decisions confidently now, instead of freezing in place.

A Simple 2026 Game Plan (Based on Buyer Type)

First-Time Buyers

Your focus: getting into the market and letting time and appreciation go to work for you.

Opportunities: seller concessions, buydowns, down payment assistance, and creative loan structuring.

a person giving a bundle of keys to another person

Move-Up Buyers

Your focus: using today’s slower tempo to negotiate better terms, then refinancing into a lower payment later.

Opportunities: contingent offers, pricing negotiation, and equity-driven planning.

Investors

Your focus: leveraging the soft spots in the market where competition has thinned out.

Opportunities: DSCR options, blended financing, and BRRRR-friendly structures.

You Don’t Need Perfect Timing—You Need the Right Plan

Success in today’s market isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about positioning yourself well no matter what the future brings.

If you’ve been thinking about buying—but feeling unsure—let’s take a few minutes to build a personalized strategy together. I’ll help you understand your options, compare scenarios, and map out the clearest path toward your long-term goals.

This market rewards the prepared. Let’s build your 2026 plan now.

Do reach out directly to me to begin crafting your plan!

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Reforms – A Podcast: Affordable Housing Ideas from Two Loan Originators

December 2, 2025 / Tom Bonetto / 0 Comments

I recently sat down with Mike Nelson, a mortgage originator and host of the Mosaic Podcast.

We discussed some ideas that should be debated at the government levels regarding interest rates and home affordability.

I’d invite you to take a listen!

Here’s the link…

Specific Podcast Timestamps:

1:05 – Introduction
2:38 – Setting the Stage
5:02 – Ideas for Reform: Debt-to-Income and Residual Income
9:02 – The Importance of the Credit Score and Asset Utilization
12:12 – Over Regulation and Costs Associated with them
19:30 – Loan Level Price Adjustments Causing Rate Increases (2^nd homes/investment properties)
24:21 – 401(k) Utilization Without Penalty for Home Purchases/Gifts
25:28 – ‘Streamline’ Refinances for Conventional Borrowers
27:00 – Non-QM versus QM
29:00 – Government Debt and How It Impacts Mortgage Rates
32:19 – Is Real Estate Still a Good Investment?
33:55 – The Federal Reserve and The Data
37:00 – Final Thoughts

I hope you find it interesting, and feel free to reach out directly to me to discuss it further.

As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…

The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.

Mortgage Rates Over the Past Three Weeks: What’s Changed

October 14, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

orange calculator beside the black smartphone

Over roughly the last three weeks, U.S. mortgage rates have edged downward, reaching their lowest levels in about a year.

According to Freddie Mac’s most recent data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.30 % from 6.34 %.

This decline is modest, but meaningful in the current interest rate environment — especially given how tightly rates have been trading lately.

In prior weeks, there was also a rebound in rates: for example, the week ending October 2 saw average rates rise from 6.30 % to 6.34 %, as Treasury yields ticked upward.

But the recent movement has tilted downward again, amid growing caution about economic strength.

Recent Months to Today

As of October 14, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.30 % — down from 6.34 % the prior week.
Over the past several weeks, rates have settled in their lowest band in roughly a year.
Earlier in 2025, rates were higher — in many places above 6.8 % or even close to 7.0 % for conforming loans, depending on timing and market conditions.
Looking back further, we see that since 1971, the long-term average 30-year fixed rate is about 7.71 % (through 2025)
In other words, current rates are still below that historical average, though far from the ultra-low rates seen in the 2010s and early 2020s.

Why Rates Are Moving: Key Drivers

To understand why mortgage rates have shifted, it helps to zoom out and see the levers that push long-term borrowing costs:

1. Treasury yields & the bond market

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

Mortgage rates are closely linked to longer-term Treasury yields (especially the 10-year). When investors buy Treasurys, yields fall; when they sell, yields rise. Mortgage lenders price based on these benchmarks.

In recent weeks, Treasury yields have shown some softness, reflecting investor appetite for safer assets amid economic uncertainty. That downward pressure on yields helps bring mortgage rates lower.

2. Economic data & inflation

Every inflation report, employment release, and GDP update can swing expectations about future interest rates. If inflation shows signs of sticking higher, markets will demand higher yields (and mortgage rates) to compensate.

Conversely, weak jobs or growth data can boost expectations of rate cuts and push long yields lower.

In recent weeks, signs of softening in labor markets have grown more pronounced, which has helped ease rate pressures.

3. Federal Reserve policy expectations

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly—but its policy decisions and forward guidance are central to rate expectations. Markets are watching how many cuts the Fed will enact in 2025 (and how fast) and how strongly it will resist inflation.

Recently, the Fed has signaled caution, acknowledging that inflation risks remain. But weaker labor data may give it more room to ease.

4. Supply, demand & housing market sentiment

Mortgage rate movement also reacts to credit demand, lender competition, and overall confidence in the housing market. As rates dip, some borrowers respond quickly with refinance or purchase activity. That can feed back into pricing dynamics.

In fact, even small rate reductions lately have triggered increases in refinancing inquiries.

Also, broader uncertainties — such as the current U.S. government shutdown — create additional caution in markets, which can tilt toward lower yields (and lower mortgage rates).

What to Watch Next: Forward Outlook & Risks

Given where we are, here’s what I see as the main potential paths forward — and what borrowers should watch for.

Base Case: Modest Further Decline or Plateau

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to stay where they are or possibly drift modestly lower through late 2025. For example, Fannie Mae recently revised its year-end expectation to 6.4 %, and 2026 to ~6.0 %.

Other analysts believe rates will more or less stay in the 6.2 %–6.6 % range through year-end, depending on economic data.
If inflation continues to ease and labor markets soften, bond yields could fall further, dragging mortgage rates down with them.

Upside Risk: Rates Could Rise

If inflation surprises to the upside, markets could push yields (and thus mortgage rates) higher.
Strong economic data — especially in jobs, consumer spending, or corporate profits — could make the Fed more reluctant to cut or even force it to reconsider policy tightening, which would ripple through longer-term yields.
Global or fiscal surprises (e.g. government shutdowns, debt ceiling worries, geopolitical events) can trigger volatility in bond markets, pushing rates upward.

Final Takeaways for Borrowers & Homebuyers

It’s not a dramatic rate cut that is in play — the recent moves are incremental. But every basis point matters when you’re financing a large amount.

If you’re in the market now and your numbers make sense, don’t wait on “perfect” rates. Locking something in is often better than trying to time the bottom.

Also, do keep a close eye on inflation numbers, payrolls/unemployment data, and Fed communications. These will be the levers moving rates in the coming weeks.

Finally, for clients who are refinancing or planning purchases in 2025, building in some “wiggle room” (i.e. rate buffers) is prudent given the potential volatility.

Reach out to me today to discuss your current situation and to make sure you are not missing out. I’d be happy work with you and explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

Now’s the Time: Mortgage Rates Are Dropping, but the Window May Be Short

September 12, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

Mortgage interest rates have taken a welcome step lower in the past nine days—and that means homeowners have a fresh opportunity to refinance.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate slid to 6.35% the week ending September 11, down about 0.15% from the prior week.

The 15-year and 20-year fixed fell as well, landing around 5.875%.

For investment properties and 2nd homes, we are seeing rates in the mid 6% range, as well.

Other industry surveys—Bankrate, Money.com, and Reuters—are showing similar declines across the board.

What’s Driving the Drop

The reason for the dip lies in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, has retreated in recent days.

Investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting short-term interest rates later this month.

Combined with softer labor market data and easing inflation pressure, long-term yields have fallen—and mortgage rates have followed.

Treasury Dips Don’t Last Long

If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Since mid-2023, there have been eight significant downward moves in the 10-year Treasury yield.

You can see them highlighted in the chart above.

Each one of those dips lasted anywhere from just three days to three weeks before the trend reversed and rates climbed again.

That’s the key takeaway: lower-rate windows don’t last long. Waiting to see if rates fall further often means missing the opportunity altogether.

Why Refinancing Now Makes Sense

If you bought a home within the past two and a half years, there’s a good chance your mortgage rate is higher than where the market is today.

Even a small rate reduction can create meaningful monthly savings and improve long-term financial flexibility.

If you’ve recently completed a cash-out refinance, now may be an especially smart time to review your options. Lowering your interest rate can reduce the cost of carrying that debt, even if you pulled equity from your home earlier this year.

Beyond lowering monthly payments, refinancing may also help you:

Switch from a 30-year to a 15- or 20-year term, paying off your home faster.
Consolidate higher-interest debt into your mortgage at a lower rate.
Remove mortgage insurance if you’ve built enough equity.

The Time to Act Is Now

Rates are still volatile.

Inflation readings, labor reports, and Federal Reserve announcements can all shift the bond market quickly. The history since 2023 is clear: when Treasury yields dip, mortgage rates dip too—but they rarely stay down for long.

That’s why now is the time to act.

If your current mortgage is above today’s averages, let’s run the numbers together. Locking in while rates are on the downside could secure savings that last for years to come.

Here’s The Bottom Line

Lower rates don’t wait around. If you’ve bought a home in the past 2.5 years or completed a recent cash-out refinance, this is your window to refinance into a smarter mortgage.

Reach out to me today to make sure you are not missing out and we can begin to explore options.

If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…

The FHA Streamline Refinance Explained: Is It Right for You?

September 1, 2025 / Tom Bonetto

glass container with stainless scooper surrounded with paper bills

If you currently have an FHA loan, you may have heard about the FHA Streamline Refinance—a simplified refinance option designed to make lowering your interest rate fast and easy.

But is it the right move for you?

Let’s break it down in plain language so you can make a confident decision and have an understanding of the program’s pros and cons.

What Is an FHA Streamline Refinance?

The FHA Streamline Refinance is a special program from the Federal Housing Administration that allows homeowners with an existing FHA loan to refinance without the typical hassle. Here’s why people love it:

✅ No appraisal required – Your home’s current value doesn’t matter.
✅ Minimal documentation – Less paperwork than a traditional refinance.
✅ Fast process – In many cases, it can close in as little as 30 days.

The main goal? To help homeowners take advantage of lower interest rates and reduce their monthly payments without jumping through all the usual hoops.

Who Qualifies for an FHA Streamline?

To be eligible, you need to meet a few basic guidelines:

You must already have an FHA-insured mortgage.
You need a history of on-time payments. Generally, the last 6 months should be current.
Your new loan must have a net tangible benefit. That means it should lower your payment or move you to a more stable loan (like from an ARM to fixed).

One more important note: You cannot take cash out with this refinance. If you’re looking for cash from your equity, there are other options we can discuss.

What About the Appraisal?

No appraisal is usually required—which is a huge benefit if your home’s value hasn’t skyrocketed or if the market is soft. As long as you meet the payment history requirements and the loan has a net tangible benefit, you’re good to go.

What Are the Downsides?

Like any loan, there are trade-offs. A few things to keep in mind:

Mortgage insurance stays – If you have an FHA loan, you still have MIP (Mortgage Insurance Premium).
Not for cash-out needs – This is a “payment-saving” refinance only.
Closing costs still apply – Even though they can be financed, there are costs involved.

How Long Does It Take?

In most cases, FHA Streamline Refinances close in 30 days or less. That’s significantly faster than a traditional refinance because there’s less documentation and no appraisal to slow things down.

Is It Right for You?

If you:
✔ Have an FHA loan
✔ Want a lower payment
✔ Don’t need cash-out
✔ Like the idea of a quick and easy process

…then the FHA Streamline Refinance could be a perfect fit.

Ready to See Your Savings?

Every situation is different, so let’s crunch the numbers together.

You can reach out to me here…and if it’s easier, you can set an appointment with me here.

If an FHA Streamline Refinance can help you lower your payment, reduce your interest rate, and keep more money in your pocket, we’ll find out together!