Category: Interest Rates (Page 24 of 30)

January 29, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

Interest Rates in 2018 – Cause and Effect

There has been a slow increase in interest rates since September of 2017 – and a quicker jump in the last few weeks. Bond markets haven’t seen pressures like this in over 4 years – and things are trending higher.

Many potential home buyers and investors are asking why – and what does the future hold?

First, let’s take a look at what the 10 year treasury note has done since September 2017. The 10-year Treasury note rate is the yield or rate of return, you get for investing in this note. The yield is important because it is a true benchmark, which guides other interest rates, especially mortgage rates.

Note the upward slope of the yield on the graph below…and mortgage rates have essentially followed:

OK – so we see the trend line. So why has this happened?

Well, there are 3 main reasons – and all of them are pretty decent economic signs, as a matter of fact.

Increased Employment and Potential Inflationary Pressures

Many investors believe inflation is bound to tick up if the labor market continues to improve, and some market indicators suggest inflation expectations have been climbing in recent months. This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices and the passage of sweeping tax cuts. Many think could provide a further boost to the economy – giving consumers more money at their disposal.

Rising inflation is a threat to government bond investors because it chips away at the purchasing power of their fixed interest payments. As mentioned earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is watched particularly closely because it is a bedrock of global finance. It is key in influencing borrowing rates for consumers, businesses and state and local governments.

If positive labor and economic news keep pouring out (as most analysts believe things will continue to improve), then the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

‘Quantitative Tightening’ by the Federal Reserve

Between 2009 and 2014, the US Federal Reserve created $3.5 trillion during three phases of what was called “Quantitative Easing”. It was the Federal Reserve’s response to help reduce the dramatic market swings created by the recession about 10 years ago. It used that money to buy $3.5 trillion dollars worth of financial assets – principally government bonds and mortgage backed securities issued by the government-sponsored mortgage entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When you really think about it, $3.5 trillion is a pretty large amount of money. When that much money is spent over a six-year period, it would no doubt change the price of anything, bond markets included. By the way, this maneuver has generally been appreciated in the market and (at least at this time) appears to have been a success.

Well, the Federal Reserve has now begun to reduce its balance sheet as the necessity for investment has given way to the possibility of inflation. Over time, the plan is to reinvest less and less – as per the schedule reproduced in the table below – until such a time as it considers its balance sheet ‘normalized’.

Historically, when the bonds owned by the Fed mature, they simply reinvested the proceeds into new bonds. It essentially keeps the size of the balance sheet stable, while having very little impact on the market. However, when quantitative tightening began in October of 2017, the Fed started slowing down these reinvestments, allowing its balance sheet to gradually shrink.

In theory, through unwinding its balance sheet slowly by just allowing the bonds it owns to mature, the Fed can attempt to mitigate the fear of what might happen to yields if it was to ever try and sell such a large amount of bonds directly.

Essentially, the Federal Reserve is changing the supply and demand curve and the result is a higher yield in the 10 year treasury note.

Stock Market Increases – Pressuring Bond Markets

Generally speaking, stock markets and bond markets move in different directions. Because both stocks and bonds compete for investment money at a fundamental level, most financial analysts believe that a strengthening equity (stock) market attracts funds away from bonds.

By all measures, 2017 was a stellar year for the stock market. As we enter a new year, experts are cautiously optimistic that stocks will continue their hot streak in 2018.

Stocks soared last year on excellent corporate profits and positive economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up by 25%, the S&P 500 grew by 19% and the Nasdaq index bested them both with a 28% gain.

There is clearly more evidence of excitement among investors in 2018. This has everything to do with a strengthening economy and record corporate revenues…and profits that that have been bolstered by the new tax law.

In the short run, rising equity values would tend to drive bond prices lower and bond yields higher than they otherwise might have been.

What It All Means

So, I think it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage rates overall. These increases look to be gradual, but consistent.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at nearly 6%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home! Now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

Tips on Interest Rates and Mortgage Shopping

December 26, 2017 / Tom Bonetto

During the home buying process, one key component for borrower consideration is the mortgage interest rate. As many know, rates vary widely from lender to lender.

You might wonder if the lowest rate is the best way to go…but please know there are other factors to take into consideration besides an advertised rate.

With that in mind, here’s a list of tips to help give the buyer confidence as they enter down the path of home ownership or refinancing a current home loan. The single best thing a potential borrower should do is to reach out to a trustworthy mortgage lender!

Do Your Research as You Compare Lenders

Be wary of rates that seem too good to be true. If a rate is far lower than most others, there may be significant extra costs involved – remember, there’s no such thing as a free lunch!

Be skeptical of lenders that have little to no reputation. Check the web for testimonials, run some Google searches and find out mor about them and the firms they work with. Consider how many years the lender has been in business and any complaints or bad reviews online.

If your lender can’t provide you with a solid list of references and referrals, they might not be the right one for you!

Education is Key: Learn About Loans and Rates in Order to Compare Them

It’s important that buyers decide what their goals are regarding that home purchase and whether you need a fixed or adjustable interest rate. A fixed interest rate means that the rate stays the same throughout the life of the loan. An adjustable rate starts off lower and then increases gradually, usually annually, but not beyond a maximum amount.

Talk to trusted industry experts, then with family or friends about what types of home loans they have had and what their experiences were with each type of loan and lender to get a better idea of what might work well for your situation.

Look Beyond the Actual Percentage Rate

Learn about the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) and points. The APR is the cost of credit, expressed as a yearly rate including interest, mortgage insurance, and loan origination fees.

With that said, the APR isn’t necessarily the best benchmark to utilize – find out more about that here….there really are other factors that weigh into this equation.

It’s important to know whether points are included with the APR as it will affect your costs of the loan. A rate may be lower, but may include points, which you will pay for and should account for when comparing home loan interest rates.

Look into other fees that are included with the loan. These might include Lender Fees, Appraisal Fee, and Title Services Fee to name a few.

In Conclusion

Taking the extra step to educate yourself on interest rates and your potential lender will really help you gain a better understanding of the process and options available.

I would be happy to give you the tools and information you need to make wise choices during your home buying journey. Got questions? Don’t hesitate to reach out to me, as I’d be happy to answer any questions as you might have!

FHA Loans – Closing Costs and Down Payments

October 16, 2017 / Tom Bonetto

One of the reason FHA home loans are so popular is their low down payment requirement. As long as your credit score exceeds 599, you are eligible for 96.5 percent financing, with a 3.5 percent down payment.

The big question is….how much will your down payment and closing costs be?

Source: The Mortgage Reports – Gina Pogol

FHA Down Payment: Higher Is Better For Bad Credit

If your credit score is 600 or higher, your minimum down payment for FHA financing is 3.5 percent.

Keep in mind that being eligible for financing is not the same as being approved for financing. You can apply, but very few people with the minimum scores get approved for FHA home loans. So if your credit score is marginal, consider coming in with a higher-than-required down payment.

With that said, with credit scores over 640, buyers should generally be OK regarding credit and FHA loans.

Down Payment Gifts

With FHA homes loans, you can get your entire down payment as a gift from friends or family. Your employer, church or other approved organization may also gift you down payment funds.

Gift funds must come with no expectation of repayment. The loan applicant must show that the giver intends the funds to be a gift, that the giver has the money to give, that the money has been transferred to the applicant, and that the funds did not come from an unapproved source.

If you’re lucky enough to be getting a gifted down payment, you’ll need to do the following:

Get a signed “gift letter” from the giver, indicating the amount of the gift, and that it is a gift with no expectation of repayment.
Document the transfer of funds into your account — a deposit receipt or account statement is good.
Get a copy of the most recent statement from the giver’s account, showing that there was money to give you.

The reason for all this documentation is making sure that the gift does not come from the seller, real estate agent, or anyone else who would benefit from your home purchase.

Help From Sellers

As noted above, you can’t get a down payment gift or loan from the home seller, or anyone else who might benefit from the transaction. However, you can get help with your closing costs from a motivated seller.

FHA loans allow sellers to cover closing costs up to six percent of your purchase price. That can mean lender fees, property taxes, homeowners insurance, escrow fees, and title insurance.

Naturally, this kind of help from sellers is not really free. If you want six percent of the sales price in concessions, you’ll have to pay six percent more than the price the buyer is willing to accept.

That’s okay, as long as the property will appraise at the higher price.

FHA Closing Costs

Closing costs for FHA loans are about the same as they are for conventional loans, with a couple exceptions.

The FHA home appraisal is a little more complicated than the standard appraisal, and it often costs about $50 more.
FHA requires an upfront mortgage insurance premium (MIP) of 1.75 percent of your loan amount. However, most borrowers wrap that charge into their loan amount.

If you wrap your FHA insurance into your loan amount, your mortgage starting balance looks like this:

$200,000 purchase with 3.5% down = $193,000 loan with $7,000 down
Add 1.75 percent of $193,000 = $3,378
Total loan amount: $196,378

Note that you can wrap the FHA MIP into your new loan amount, but not your other closing costs. When you refinance, if you have enough equity, you can wrap all your costs into the new loan.

Help From Your Lender

If your seller isn’t interested in covering your closing costs, your lender might be. Here’s how that works.

There are many ways to price a mortgage. For instance, here’s what you might see on a rate sheet for a 30-year fixed mortgage:

The rates with negative numbers have what’s called rebate pricing. That’s money that can be rebated to the borrower and used for things like closing costs.

So if you have a $100,000 loan with a three percent rebate (the 4.125 percent rate in the chart above), you get $3,000 from the lender to cover your closing costs.

How can lenders do this? They do it by offering you a higher interest rate in exchange for an upfront payment now. So, you’d get 3.75 percent if you paid the normal closing costs, while 4.125 percent would get you a three percent rebate. If you only keep your loan for a few years, you can come out ahead with rebate pricing.

Contact me to find out more about FHA pricing and options – it would be my privilege to help!

Photo Credit: Cafe Credit via Flickr, under the Creative Commons License

Understanding Discount Points – A Primer

August 28, 2017 / Tom Bonetto

There is a fair amount of confusion from prospective buyers about mortgage “points”. What are they? Why do they exist?

Discount points are a one-time, upfront mortgage closing costs, which give a mortgage borrower access to “discounted” mortgage rates as compared to the market.

In general, one discount point paid at closing will lower your mortgage rate by 25 basis points (0.25%).

Do they help or hurt they buyer?

The answer, of course, is “it depends”.

Dan Green at The Mortgage Reports does a fantastic job in highlighting the definitions and costs/benefits of the paying points. You can find out more here….

By the way, the IRS considers discount points to be prepaid mortgage interest, so discount points can be tax-deductible.

What Are Mortgage Discount Points?

When your mortgage lender quotes you the interest rate, is typically quoted in two parts.

The first part is the mortgage rate itself, and the second part is the number of discount points required to get that rate.

You’ll notice that, in general, the higher the number of discount points you’re charged, the lower your mortgage rate quote will be.

Discount points are fees specifically used to buy-down your rate.

On the settlement statement, discount points are sometimes labeled “Discount Fee” or “Mortgage Rate Buydown”. Each discount point cost one percent of your loan size.

Assuming a loan size of $200,000, then, here are a few examples of how to calculate discount points for a mortgage loan.

1 discount point on a $200,000 loans costs $2,000
0.5 discount points on a $200,000 loan costs $1,000
0.25 discount points on a $200,000 loan costs $500

Discount points can be tax-deductible, depending on which deductions you can claim on your federal income taxes. Check with your tax preparer for the specifics.

How Discount Points Change Your Mortgage Rate

When discount points are paid, the lender collects a one-time fee at closing in exchange a lower mortgage rate to be honored for the life of the loan.

The reason a buyer would pay discount points is to get the mortgage rate reduction; and, how much of a mortgage rate break you get will vary by lender.

As a general rule, paying one discount point lowers a quoted mortgage rate by 25 basis points (0.25%). However, paying two discount points, however, will not always lower your rate by 50 basis points (0.50%), as you would expect.

Nor will paying three discount points necessarily lower your rate by 75 basis points (0.75%)

As outlined by Dan Green in his Mortgage Report article, here’s an example of how discount points may work on a $100,000 mortgage:

3.50% with 0 discount points. Monthly payment of $449.
3.25% with 1 discount point. Monthly payment of $435. Fee of $1,000.
3.00% with 2 discount points. Monthly payment of $422. Fee of $2,000.

You’ll note that when you pay discount points come, it costs at a cost, but it also generates real monthly savings.

In the above example, the mortgage applicant saves $14 per month for every $1,000 spent at closing. This creates a “breakeven point” of 71 months.

Says Green, “Every mortgage loan will have its own breakeven point on paying points. If you plan to stay in your home beyond the breakeven and — this is a key point — don’t think you’ll refinance before the breakeven hits, paying points may be a good idea.”

Otherwise, points can be waste.

“Negative” Discount Point Loans (Zero-Closing Cost)

Green highlights another helpful aspect of discount points is that lenders will often offer them “in reverse”.

“Instead of paying discount points in order to get access to lower mortgage rates, you can receive points from your lender and use those monies to pay for closing costs and fees associated with your home loan,” he says.

The technical term for reverse points is “rebate”.

Mortgage applicants can typically receive up to 5 points in rebate. However, the higher your rebate, the higher your mortgage rate.

Here is an example of how rebate points may work on a $100,000 mortgage:

3.50% with 0 discount points. Monthly payment of $449.
3.75% with 1 discount point. Monthly payment of $463. Credit of $1,000.
4.00% with 2 discount points. Monthly payment of $477. Credit of $2,000.

Homeowners can use rebates to pay for some, or all, of their loan closing costs. When you use rebate to pay for all of your closing costs, it’s known as a “zero-closing cost mortgage loan”.

When you do a zero-closing cost refinance, you can stay as liquid as possible with all of your cash in the bank.

Rebates can be good for refinances, too, as loan’s complete closing costs can be “waived”. This allows the homeowner to refinance without increasing its loan size.

When mortgage rates are falling, zero-closing cost mortgages are an excellent way to lower your rate without paying fees over and over again.

Please do reach out to me to find out more about how utilizing discount points can help you in your next transaction!

Home Buyers Should Know These 5 Things for 2017-2018

August 6, 2017 / Tom Bonetto

There’s a lot of advice online for homebuyers these days. But, hey, who’s got the time to do all of that research. So I’ve selected five things prospective buyers should know about purchasing your house in the next 18 months.

The real estate market is getting more competitive by the day, due to limited inventory. On the other hand, mortgage qualifications have loosened a bit and rates are still near historic lows.

Home prices have risen steadily in recent years, and they continue to do so. Mortgage rates are expected to inch upward in the coming months. Most analysts are predicting a rate increase by the fed in the fall of 2017.

With those things in mind, let’s take a look at 5 key issues:

Mortgage rates are expected to slowly climb into 2018

The Federal Reserve will be reducing the amount of mortgage-backed securities in their portfolio relatively soon – and they have hinted at another rate increase or two over the next 6 months.

In its latest forecast, the Mortgage Banker’s Association economists predicted that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan would rise to 4.5% by the fourth quarter of 2017. Looking beyond that, they expect 30-year loan rates to rise above 5% by around the middle of 2018.

With that said, these rates are still extraordinarily low compared to historical standards.

Home prices are rising

According to Zillow, the real estate information service, the median home value across the US has risen by over 7% in the last year – and many experts see that pace staying consistent. Most economists expect prices to rise by another 6% over the next 12 months, extending into the summer of 2018.

As a result, homebuyers will encounter higher housing costs than those who purchased over the last couple of years. So be sure to research the market ahead of time, work with the right real estate agent, and go into it with a realistic view of what you can afford.

Mortgage qualification is easier today

The mortgage industry has loosened up a bit over the last two or three years. Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have relaxed debt-to-income ratios. As a result, it’s slightly easier to qualify for a mortgage loan today than it was in the past.

For example, many first-time homebuyers think they must have 20% or more ready for a down payment. But that isn’t true at all. Today, there are mortgage programs available that allow for down payments as low as 3%, or even 0% if you’re military or live in rural areas.

Don’t make assumptions about your ability to qualify for a home loan. Reach out to me, and we’ll review your situation to determine if you’re a good candidate for a home loan.

Housing inventory is getting tighter

The reason why home prices are rising has to do with inventory – or the lack of it. It’s just supply and demand at work, really.

In most cities across the west, the current supply of homes is falling short of demand.

What does this mean to the homebuyer? It means you should be prepared for some competition, and be ready to move quickly when the right house comes along.

It’s a sellers market right now

Due to the lack of inventory, this will directly impact you as the buyer. In 2017, most of the major cities across the state are experiencing sellers’ market conditions. In short, there aren’t enough homes for sale to meet the current level of demand.

This is an important factor to remember when it comes time to make an offer and negotiate with sellers. This is where the right real estate agent can really help.

The reality is that current real estate market conditions favor sellers over buyers.

My opinion is that it isn’t worth your time to haggle with the seller over the small stuff. When you find a home that meets the majority of your criteria and falls within your budget, you should move quickly with a legitimate, competitive offer.

In conclusion

With that said, this is my reading on current trends in the real estate and mortgage marketplace. The continuation of rising home prices and more-than-likely mortgage rate increases makes a compelling argument for buying a home sooner rather than later.

As always, please do contact me for more, as it would be my privilege to help you!