Category: Interest Rates (Page 24 of 31)

Rising Interest Rates Aren’t Deterring Buyers

September 10, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

Mortgage interest rates have risen consistently over the last year-and-a-half. At that time, rates for the 30-year fixed were just under 4%. Lately, the average is closing in on 5% percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Let’s take a look at the facts and crunch the numbers. You’ll likely find that minor rate fluctuations won’t affect a buyer’s ability to purchase a home

Despite these rising mortgage rates, there’s good news:

Rising mortgage rates don’t have to stifle the buyer’s dream of owning
In fact, a new study by Redfin shows that rising rates aren’t scaring off many shoppers
Rates remain historically very affordable, even if they are a bit higher today

Source: You can find out more here – by reading Erik Martin’s entire piece at The Mortgage Reports

What the research found on interest rates and purchasing patterns

A recent survey of potential buyers by Redfin reveals some interesting findings:

Only one in 20 would call off their search if rates rose above 5 percent
One in four said such an increase would have no impact on their search
Nineteen percent would increase their urgency to find a home before further rate increases
Twenty-one percent would look in other areas or search for a more affordable home
One-third would slow down their search to see if rates came back down

This means that many buyers understand the environment today – and realize the long-term benefits of home ownership.

How to read the data

Taylor Marr, senior economist at Redfin, says these results are telling.

“Only a small share of buyers will scrap their plans to buy a home if rates surpass 5 percent. This reflects their determination to be a part of the housing market,” he notes.

Marr says buyers are well aware that rising mortgage rates mean slightly higher monthly payments. Yet buyers are willing to make compromises, as they understand that actual wages are higher today, making the purchase more affordable. Also, they know that real estate generally appreciates. Finally, today’s rates remain very low, compared to historical norms.

“By historical terms, 5 percent mortgages are not that high. A rate below 7 percent is really a good deal on long-term money,” Joshua Harris, clinical assistant professor of real estate at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, says. “Plus, rents are generally high. So even at 5 percent, many buyers will still be saving money on monthly housing costs.”

What buyers can do now

Most experts recommend the following steps:

Buy now if you can afford it – “While rates are going up, so are home prices in most markets,” says Harris. “The job market is great. Many are seeing wage growth in many sectors. These forces will push rates up and give people more money to spend on a house. So waiting can be a very costly decision if you need a house and don’t want to rent.”

Get your financial house together – start the pre-approval process and get qualified for a loan. “Ask questions and understand the monthly payments you’ll need to make,” suggests Suzanne Hollander, real estate attorney, broker and Florida International University instructor. Will your income be able to cover the principal, interest, taxes and insurance? Will it provide enough money to live the lifestyle you prefer?”

Don’t sweat a minor rate hike – “So long as you intend to hold the home for at least five years, these small fluctuations shouldn’t affect your decision to buy,” Harris adds.

With economic gains outpacing mortgage rate interest rates in many markets, you may be better able to buy a home today than at any time over the last 10 years. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me and find out more!

The Latest on Interest Rates for 2018 and 2019

July 5, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate last month by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The Fed has indicated that there will most likely be two more rate hikes this year.

Most financial experts expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least 3 times in 2019, as well.

Mortgage interest rates don’t necessarily move in step with the federal funds rate, as they are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury Bond. So, borrowers today looking to get a mortgage aren’t directly affected by the latest Fed hike.

However, the federal funds rate does contribute to the longer-term trends of the 10-year Treasury, and long-term fixed mortgages as a result.

With the Fed likely lifting rates multiple times over the next couple of years, the trend for long-term mortgage rates is up.

Many experts are forecasting that mortgage rates could move near the 6% range sometime in 2019.

Why is the Federal Reserve raising rates?

Well, it’s a bit complicated, but there are some very good reasons – and they are all designed to help foster stable, economic growth.

‘Quantitative Tightening’

Between 2009 and 2014, the US Federal Reserve created $3.5 trillion during three phases of what was called “Quantitative Easing”. It was the Federal Reserve’s response to help reduce the dramatic market swings created by the recession about 10 years ago.

This seems to have helped the economy avert disaster, but their impacts were far from ideal. Nonetheless, the economy slowly lifted off as consumers rebuilt their balance sheets and asset values rose.

Today, the Fed is slowly reversing this stimulus program. They’re raising short-term rates and shrinking their bond and mortgage back securities portfolio.

The consensus thinking is that the Federal Reserve members fear that inflation will take hold if they keep interest rates artificially low.

Historically, when the bonds owned by the Fed mature, they simply reinvested the proceeds into new bonds. It essentially keeps the size of the balance sheet stable, while having very little impact on the market.

However, when quantitative tightening began in October of 2017, the Fed started slowing down these reinvestments, allowing its balance sheet to gradually shrink.

In theory, through unwinding its balance sheet slowly by just allowing the bonds it owns to mature, the Fed can attempt to mitigate the fear of what might happen to yields if it was to ever try and sell such a large amount of bonds directly.

Essentially, the Federal Reserve is changing the supply and demand curve and the result is a higher yield in the 10-year treasury note.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation is beginning to inch up as the labor market continues to improve. Most indicators suggest inflation has been climbing in recent months. If you look at both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, you will see the trends.

This is a general reflection better economic data, rising energy prices, and increased employment.

Rising inflation is a threat to government bond investors because it chips away at the purchasing power of their fixed interest payments. As mentioned earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is watched particularly closely because it is a bedrock of global finance. It is key in influencing borrowing rates for consumers, businesses and state and local governments.

Positive labor and economic news keeps coming in (as predicted over the last 6 months), and the prospect of inflation will put pressure on bonds and interest rates.

What It All Means

So, it is safe to say that we will continue to see pressures in the bond market and mortgage interest rates overall. These increases do look to be gradual for the time being, but consistent and into 2019, for sure.

With that said, home prices are increasing nationally at nearly 6%, so the increase in interest rate will be more than offset by the increasing value of one’s home!

Secondly, home buying power is still extraordinarily high, despite rising home prices and rate hikes. Find out more about that here.

In reality, now is a fantastic time to purchase. Contact me for more information, as it would by my privilege to help you.

Home Buying Power Still High, Despite Rising Prices and Rates

June 10, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

I’m receiving calls and questions all the time regarding mortgage qualification and home buying in today’s changing interest rate and price appreciation marketplace.

Your home buying power is the result of several variables – but there’s great news today when you consider increased income and historically low mortgage rates.

I’m linking today to an article by Amy Hale of The Mortgage Reports that really nails the answer. Go here for the entire article – and I’ve highlighted the key pieces below.

Are home prices really that high?

It might seem like home prices just keep rising, but according to the historical numbers, today’s housing is actually very affordable. “Real” home prices—those adjusted for income and interests rate changes—are currently 32.5 percent below their housing boom peak from 2006.

Home buyers still hold the power

According to the latest First American Real House Price Index, which aims to measure overall housing affordability by considering changes in income, interest rate and actual home prices, consumer home buying power is still strong.

“While unadjusted house prices have been on the rise since the end of 2011, nearly a seven-year run, consumer house-buying power has also increased by 14.3 percent over the same period,” said Mark Fleming, First American’s chief economist.

“House-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, has benefited from a decline in mortgage rates since 2011, and the more recent slow, but steady growth of household income.”

Buying power is actually up significantly from 2011 because real wages have actually increased over that time – household income has risen nearly 20% over the last 7 years. Also, mortgage lenders have relaxed some of the tight requirements and ratios for qualification. This combination makes it a great time for buyers and borrowers.

The real story on home prices

Overall, “real” home prices aren’t even close to their historical peak. In fact, according to Fleming, they’re currently 32.5 percent below July 2006’s prices and 9 percent lower than in January 2000.

Don’t let sticker prices fool you. American home buying power is still high. Want to get in on the market? Reach out to me for some answers, as it would be my privilege to help!

Today’s Mortgage and Real Estate Environment – Early Summer 2018 Edition

May 7, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

Believe me, I understand that home inventories are tight across the country. And that is making home buying a bit challenging right now.

Nevertheless, I see a great opportunity in this market for first time buyers, investors, and existing homeowners who want to take advantage of rising equity.

Look at it this way….real wages are moving up, home equity is rising, and interest rates are keeping inflation at bay.

The Current Outlook

This is a recipe for a strong, long-term real estate market.

A decade ago, the housing market was the U.S. economy’s biggest weakness. Now, it offers crucial support.

The housing market has been trending on a path higher for some time now as it gradually recovered from the financial meltdown nearly a decade ago. Interestingly, it has even gained additional strength lately, despite broadly higher home prices.

This is due to the fact that owning a home right now is one of the better investments you can make.

Some analysts are saying that a rise in mortgage rates, prompted by higher Treasury yields and inflationary pressure, could eventually cut into demand for new homes.

The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage hit nearly 5% at the end of April, its highest since early 2014, according to weekly data from Bankrate.com. As recently as September, it was right at 4%.

Still, the economy is much stronger than it was the last time rates spiked in 2013, which means the housing market has more ability to withstand higher mortgage rates than it used to, most analysts say.

As a matter of fact, real wages are up for the first time in 10 years, giving would-be buyers more purchasing power.

Couple that with expected equity increases in those home purchases, this looks to be a fantastic time to purchase.

The Data

Industry experts are also predicting an increase in purchases. Industry giant Zillow predicts that 2018 will shape up to be an even hotter real estate market than in 2017.

An analysis conducted by Zillow Research, a division of Zillow Group that operates the Zillow real estate marketplace, found that homes sold faster than ever in 2017 largely due to shrinking inventory.

Rising Rents Means It’s Time To Buy

The analysis has shown that rents have been increasing consistently the past three to four years. In the last year, for example, rents have over increased 4% nationwide.

That’s not necessarily a giant jump, but those increases year after year add up. If buyers can lock-in a monthly mortgage, that alone is a huge incentive to get into the home buying market.

Per Forbes Magazine: “according to an online survey of more than 1,000 active buyers conducted in early March by Toluna Research for realtor.com, 23% of millennials surveyed indicated that rising rent was a trigger for their home buying purchase.

Realtor.com reports that HUD data shows rents were up in 85 of the top 100 metro areas, including nine metros where rents were up by double-digit percentages from a year ago.”

More from Forbes: “These are the market dynamics and challenges Millennials face especially in urban areas where they naturally migrate.

Craig Furfine, clinical professor of finance at Kellogg School, Northwestern University thinks differently. ‘An alternative viewpoint is Millennials have been reluctant to enter the housing market having witnessed the effects of the housing collapse of a decade ago. Now they see interest rates rising and they think now may be a good time to buy’.

Interestingly, just like their baby boomer parents, many Millennials want that family home with a yard and in a good school system. It seems like the foundation of home ownership desire hasn’t really changed in a long time.

Don’t hesitate to reach out to me for more, as it would be my privilege to help!

Homeowners See Biggest Equity Increase in 4 Years – Another Great Reason to Buy or Refinance

April 9, 2018 / Tom Bonetto

Rising home prices might be a little frustrating for would-be buyers right now.

But let’s take a look what’s happening for those who already own a home to see the true benefits of ownership. Home equity increases are being seen throughout the country – and this bodes well for the economy – and those who purchase or refinance a home in the coming months.

According to new data from CoreLogic, the average homeowner saw their home equity jump by more than $15,000 last year alone – the biggest increase since 2013.

Aly Yale at The Mortgage Reports has put together a fantastic piece – see the entire article here.

It Pays to Own Your Home

According to CoreLogic’s recent Home Equity Report, American homeowners saw a 12 percent year-over-year jump in equity from 2016 to 2017. Though the average homeowner gained $15K in equity for the year, in some states, it rose as high as $44,000.

Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist, credits rising home prices for the uptick in equity.

“Home price growth has been the primary driver of home equity wealth creation,” Nothaft said. “The average growth in home equity was more than $15,000 during 2017, the most in four years.”

Though increased equity certainly spells good news for existing homeowners, it also bodes well for the country’s economy at large.

“Because wealth gains spur additional consumer purchases, the rise in home equity wealth during 2017 should add more than $50 billion to U.S. consumer spending over the next two to three years,” Nothaft said.

What This Means For Today’s Buyers

Owning a house provides the owner with a valuable asset and financial stability. By purchasing a home, you’ll have an asset that, in most cases, will appreciate in value over time. A $200,000 home today should see an increase in value to $250,000, $300,000, or more—depending on how long you plan to live there and market conditions.

This makes your home one of the best investments you can make and a way to establish a financial foundation for future generations (aka your kids).

A home can be the ultimate nest egg, providing you with a great investment for retirement. The longer you own your home, the more it should eventually be worth.

As you get older, you can sell the home and use the proceeds to purchase or rent something smaller. Another option: Rent out the house to maintain a steady income stream so you can travel or use for other recreational activities.

Why Now?

Despite rising home prices, American housing is actually quite affordable – and now is really a good time to make that purchase.

According to the latest Real House Price Index from First American Title, today’s home buyers have “historically high levels of house-purchasing power.”

And though real home prices increased 5 percent over the year, they’re still 37.7 percent below their 2006 peak. They’re also more than 16 percent below 2000’s numbers.

Because mortgage rates are lower than historical averages, home-buying power is up. Find out more regarding home affordability here….

The Refinance Market

As housing values across the country continue to steadily increase, homeowners now have access to a much larger source of equity.

With current mortgage rates low and home equity on the rise, many think it’s a perfect time to refinance your mortgage to save not only on your overall monthly payments, but your overall interest costs as well.

Since rising home values are returning lost equity to many homeowners, refinancing can make a good deal of sense with even a small difference in your interest rate. Homeowners now have options to do many things with the difference.

More home equity also means you won’t need to bring cash to the table to refinance. Furthermore, interest rates can be slightly lower when your loan-to-value ratio drops below 80 percent. Find out more about the new refinance movement here…

It would be my privilege to help would-be-buyers or refinancers understand the current marketplace and the loan options that can help you own a part of the American dream!