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Category: Interest Rates (Page 9 of 26)

Mortgage Rates 2022 – Current vs Historical Trends

black and silver laptop with stock market display on screen

Mortgage rates have essentially doubled since the beginning of this year. Historically, however, interest rates have often been higher — sometimes much higher — than they are today.

magnifying glass on top of document

The average 30-year mortgage rate over the last fifty years is just under 8%. So even though today’s mortgage rates have jumped to the 5% range, they’re still a good deal by comparison.

I’m linking to an article from Peter Miller of The Mortgage Reports that’s a must read in order to gain some good perspective on what’s happening in today’s marketplace.

2022 Mortgage Rate Chart

Mortgage interest rates fell to record lows in 2020 and 2021 during the Covid pandemic.

However, inflation has now surged to four-decade highs, causing those rates to rise quickly this year.

Graph of 30 year Mortgage rates in 2022 from January to August

Historical Chart

Despite this increase, today’s 30-year mortgage rate is still quite a bit below average from a historical perspective.

Freddie Mac — the main industry source for mortgage rates — has been keeping records since 1971. Between April 1971 and August 2022, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.76 percent.

Graph of Historical 30 Year Mortgage Rates from 1971-2022

Here’s the average mortgage rate by year since 1974…

Chart of Average 30 Year Rate per Year from 1974-2021

Mortgage Rate Outlook

As Freddie Mac explained on August 4:

roll of american dollar banknotes tightened with band

“Mortgage rates remained volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth. The high uncertainty surrounding inflation and other factors will likely cause rates to remain variable, especially as the Federal Reserve attempts to navigate the current economic environment.”

With that said, it’s not easy to predict what will happen to mortgage rates in late 2022. The Fed is likely to keep hiking interest rates in an attempt to bring inflation under control.  Couple that with a recession, however, and mortgage rates could very well move lower.

In Conclusion

Finally, it’s important for you and our clients to understand that the average mortgage is held for less than 7 years…and they are not at all married to that rate, especially if they get better!

If you or your clients are considering a purchase, your real estate search shouldn’t go on hold because of rising inflation or higher mortgage rates.  Contact me for more…as it would be my pleasure to help you.

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Announcing New Investor Specific Financing Options

Finance of America Residential Investment Property Financing Solutions

I’m glad to announce that we now have investor specific financing options in the residential income producing space…both long-term and short-term financing available, ranging from 1 to 20 units.

silver macbook beside white pen on black table

These products are tailor-made for real estate investors with income producing properties.

Finance of America Commercial, a division of Finance of America Mortgage LLC, provides individual and business exposure limits with individual FIX & FLIP rehab property loans, along with BRIDGE loans, NEW CONSTRUCTION loans, and SINGLE & PORTFOLIO RENTAL term loans to residential real estate investors across the country.

These offerings have helped clients overcome traditional financing hurdles and build long-term wealth through real estate investment.

These specific lending products and tools are designed with the real estate investor at the forefront – to help provide the personalized service investors need.

Long Term Loans vs Short Term Loans

Income Producing Property/Portfolio Loans – 2 to 20 units

  • 30-year term available
  • Full amortization and interest only options
  • Loans from $200K to $5M
  • Funding up to 80% on purchases and rate/term refinances

Fix and Flip Loans

  • Funding up to 95% of acquisition and rehab costs
  • Max loan-to-value 75% based on ARV
  • Interest accrual on drawn balance
  • 12- and 18-month term options

Bridge Loans

  • Individual property loans up to $3M
  • Funding up to 80% LTC on multi-family
  • Payoff other loans or lenders on completed flips or new builds
  • Ideal for light rehab flips when self-funding cosmetic rehabs

New Construction Loans

  • 12–18-month term for build ready lots in urban locations
  • Funding up to 100% of construction budget and 80% LTC/65% LTV for multi-unit
  • Funding up to 90%/75% LTV for experienced builders (conditions apply)
  • Business purpose loan with no income requirements
Options with FACO and Eligible Properties

Would you like to find out more?  Contact me to discuss your current situation and how you might be able to take advantage of these fantastic financing options.  It would be my pleasure to help you!

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Inflation and Real Estate – Should Buyers Wait? History Says “NO!”

Zoomed Out Picture of Neighborhood

Inflation is hot…and so is real estate.  But what does the future hold for both?

a laptop with graph on screen

As we’ve talked about before, the Federal Reserve is late to the party in dealing with inflation and the latest data shows the rate of inflation is still rising.

Many are feeling the pinch in their wallets, at the gas pump, and at the grocery store.

For would-be real estate buyers that just begs the question…is now a good time to purchase a home?

I’m linking to an article from the real estate blog Keeping Current Matters, and the author does a great job in highlighting why now might be a very good time to buy.  You can access the entire article here…

Picture of Greg McBride

Greg McBride, the Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains how inflation is affecting the housing market:

“Inflation will have a strong influence on where mortgage rates go in the months ahead…Whenever inflation finally starts to ease, so will mortgage rates — but even then, home prices are still subject to demand and very tight supply.”

While there’s no denying it’s more expensive to buy and finance a property this year than it was last year, it doesn’t mean potential buyers should pause their search. Here’s why…

History Says So – Real Estate Is A Great Hedge Against Inflation

During periods of inflation, prices generally rise across all areas of the economy.

white concrete building

Historically, however, real estate ownership is a fantastic protection against those increasing costs because buyers can “lock-in” what’s likely the household’s largest monthly fixed cost for the duration of your loan.

Not to mention, as property prices continue to appreciate, the home’s value will, as well.

That’s why Mark Cussen, Financial Writer at Investopedia, says:

“Real estate is one of the time-honored inflation hedges. It’s a tangible asset, and those tend to hold their value when inflation reigns, unlike paper assets. More specifically, as prices rise, so do property values.”

Secondly, nearly all industry experts agree that although the current rate of home appreciation can’t stay this hot, the likelihood of homes losing value is extraordinarily slim. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.”

Warning Sign with Arrow Labeled Inflation

In Conclusion

Purchasing real estate is one of the best financial decisions that can be made during inflationary times. Buyers also receive the advantage of the added security of owning their property in a time when experts are forecasting prices to continue to rise.

If you are considering a purchase, your real estate search shouldn’t go on hold because of rising inflation or higher mortgage rates.  Contact me for more…as it would be my pleasure to help you.

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Housing Market Update: Balance Beginning to Return

Scale with One Large Ball and Many Small Balls that are Tilted toward the Small Balls

I’m linking to a great article regarding today’s housing market.  Essentially, climbing housing costs caused many house hunters to drop out in recent months, which is now providing some relief for the buyers who remain.

Picture of Tim Ellis

‘Homebuyers are getting some relief as sellers slash their prices at a record rate and mortgage rates drop following months of increases’ – Tim Ellis, Market Analyst

Tim Ellis is a housing market analyst with Redfin, and the entire article can be found here…

Activity

Leading indicators of homebuying activity, per Ellis:

  • For the week ending July 7, 30-year mortgage rates fell to 5.3%—the largest 1-week drop since 2008. This was down from a 2022 high of 5.81% but up from 3.11% at the start of the year.
  • Fewer people searched for “homes for sale” on Google—searches during the week ending July 2 were down 2% from a year earlier.
  • The seasonally-adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for home tours and other home-buying services from Redfin agents—was down 15% year over year during the week ending July 3.
Desk with Laptop, Notebook, Pencils, and Coffee
  • Touring activity as of July 3 was down 14% from the start of the year, compared to a 7% increase at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
  • Mortgage purchase applications were down 17% from a year earlier during the week ending July 1, while the seasonally-adjusted index was down 4% week over week.

“Conditions for homebuyers are improving. Housing remains expensive, but mortgage rates just posted their biggest weekly drop since 2008, which makes buying a home a bit more affordable,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “One way buyers can take advantage of the shift in the market is seeking concessions from sellers. That could include asking the seller to buy down your mortgage rate, pay for repairs or cover some of your closing costs.”

The Data

A few other key facts regarding today’s housing market, from Ellis’ analysis:

  • The median home sale price was up 13% year over year to $396,000. This growth rate is down from the March peak of 16%.
  • The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 15% year over year to $399,973, but was down 2.1% from the all-time high set during the four-week period ending June 5.
  • New listings of homes for sale were down 1.4% from a year earlier.
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 2% year over year—the smallest decline since October 2019.
  • 45% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, down from 49% a year earlier.

Also, pending home sales were down 13% year over year, the largest decline since May 2020.

Graph with Sales -13.5% from Jan-Dec

On average, 7% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, a record high as far back as the data goes, through the beginning of 2015.

Graph of Price Drops from 2015-2022

In Conclusion

Would you like to find out more?  Contact me to discuss your current situation and how you might be able to take advantage of today’s market.  It would be my pleasure to help you!

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Marry the House…But Date the Rate

brides holding white bouquet of roses

I can’t take credit for the popular phrase “Marry the house…but date the rate”. It’s being posted by mortgage professionals and real estate agents all over the place.

What does this expression mean? 

Apartment with Staircase

It means that if you find a home you love, don’t let current interest rates prevent you from moving forward and buying it.

Essentially, don’t be afraid to buy the house you want right now because of external market conditions!

A mortgage does not have to be long term, in fact most people refinance their homes several times as mortgage rates improve or should they need to take cash out from their equity.

Is It A Good Idea?

Committing to the house doesn’t mean you have to commit to today’s financing forever. Buyers can always look for a better financing opportunity down the road and make a change when the time is right.

Woman Holding Sold Sign

It is absolutely possible to change your financing to more favorable terms later, should better rates and products become available… and if rates only get worse, then you’ll be glad you married the house when you did.

Interestingly, the average tenure of a mortgage is under 6 years…meaning most homeowner’s either move or refinance their mortgages quite often.

Better Rates Down The Road?

I do think there’s a good possibility of lower rates in the future.  More on that hereand here.

Believe it or not, we might be in for an upcoming perfect storm – and in a good way for borrowers.

It does look a recession is around the corner, which almost always results in lower mortgage rates. I know that sounds counter intuitive, but mortgage rates actually fall during recessions.

Mortgage Rates and Recessions from 1972-2022

Also, one of the few areas that seem relatively immune from recession is the housing market.  Historically, one of the safest bets during recession is real estate.

The chart below shows how housing stays quite resilient during and through recessions:

Case-Shiller US Price Index from 1960-2022

Looking back at eight of the nine recessions since 1960, home prices significantly increased or at least remained stable each time during and after the recession.  One of the reasons this occurs is because interest rates significantly fall during recessionary periods.

What Buyers Should Do Now

Essentially, all of these factors listed above should combine for LOWER rates later this year into 2023.

person with keys for real estate

Of course, things can change, but it sure is looking like a recession is on the horizon, which will undoubtedly bring lower mortgage rates.

Well, waiting to purchase a home and “timing the market” is one option…but it’s almost always a bad idea.  

Why?  Because no one knows exactly when rates will hit rock bottom – and home prices will continue to accelerate.

More importantly, buyers will miss out on the gains of owning a home. Homes increased in value over 15% last year in the west…and things aren’t getting any cheaper.  More on trying to time the market here…

Purchase Strategy

I recommend making your purchase now – and NOT paying extra discount points to lower your interest rate.  As a matter of fact, you could use “negative” points to help offset any closing costs.

Family in Front of a House

Instead of paying discount points to access lower mortgage rates, borrowers can receive credits from their lender and use those monies to pay for closing costs and fees associated with the home loan.

More on that strategy here…

Yes, the interest rate might be slightly higher, but you will want to refinance this mortgage when rates drop later this year or next year!  This will also limit your out-of-pocket fees for the initial transaction.

In Conclusion

Although things look a little grim currently, the future is actually looking bright for mortgage rates later this year and into next year.

Would you like to find out more?  Contact me to discuss your current situation and how you might be able to take advantage of today’s market.  It would be my pleasure to help you!

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