For the first time in more than three years, U.S. home prices have recorded a year-over-year decline.
For prospective homebuyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this could be an encouraging development.
The decline comes as mortgage rates remain elevated, buyer demand weakens, and sellers face a housing market that looks very different from the bidding wars of just a few years ago.
Home Prices Are Finally Showing Signs of Weakness
According to an October 29 report from Redfin, the median home-sale price fell to $389,601, down 0.1% from a year earlier. That may not sound like much, but it’s a meaningful shift after years of steadily rising home prices.
But let’s keep things in perspective. A 0.1% decline doesn’t mean home values are suddenly collapsing, nor does it mean every market is experiencing falling prices. In fact, Redfin’s separate Home Price Index showed prices still increasing in September.
However, the latest weekly sales data suggests that the balance of power may be shifting. The bigger story isn’t necessarily that home prices are falling. It’s that buyers are gaining negotiating leverage they haven’t enjoyed in years.
And as we head deeper into the fall season, that leverage could translate into some meaningful opportunities.
Rising Inventory Is Giving Buyers More Choices
One of the most important developments in today’s housing market is the growing number of homes available for sale. Redfin reports that active listings increased 2.2% compared with a year earlier, with approximately 1.51 million homes on the market nationally.
Meanwhile, pending home sales have fallen sharply, declining nearly 16% year over year. With fewer buyers competing for available properties, homes are taking longer to sell.
The typical home now spends approximately 50 days on the market, and more than 21% of sellers have reduced their asking prices. Those are encouraging numbers for buyers who remember when homes were selling within days, often with multiple offers.
This is particularly interesting because fall has traditionally been a slower season for real estate. Families with school-age children have generally completed their moves, the spring and summer buying rush is over, and some sellers become increasingly motivated to complete a transaction before the holidays or year-end.
A home that’s been sitting on the market for 60 or 90 days may present a very different negotiating opportunity than one that was listed yesterday. Sellers who need to relocate, have already purchased another property, or simply want to move on may be more willing to consider offers they would have rejected earlier in the year.
Of course, local conditions matter enormously, but buyers willing to do their homework may find some excellent opportunities.
The Best Negotiation May Not Be a Lower Price
Here’s something I frequently discuss with my mortgage clients: Negotiating a lower purchase price isn’t always the smartest financial move. Sometimes, asking the seller to contribute toward your closing costs or a mortgage rate buydown can provide a greater immediate financial benefit.
For example, imagine purchasing a $450,000 home. Rather than negotiating a $10,000 reduction in the purchase price, you might ask the seller for a $10,000 closing-cost credit. Depending on your loan program and financing structure, those funds could potentially cover much of your closing costs, reduce the cash you need at closing, or help you obtain a lower mortgage interest rate.
A $10,000 price reduction on a 30-year mortgage might save only about $60 per month, depending on the down payment and interest rate. A well-structured seller concession could provide considerably more immediate value.
There are other negotiating opportunities worth exploring, too. Buyers can request repairs following a home inspection, negotiate for appliances or other personal property, ask for a home warranty, or seek flexibility with closing dates.
And don’t overlook new construction! Builders with completed inventory may be particularly motivated to offer incentives, including closing-cost assistance, upgrades, and mortgage rate buydowns. The key is understanding which concessions deliver the greatest financial benefit for your particular circumstances.
An experienced real estate agent working alongside a knowledgeable mortgage professional can help you evaluate those options before you submit an offer.
Should You Buy This Fall or Wait for Better Conditions?
That’s the question many prospective homebuyers are asking, especially with mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high.
According to Redfin’s latest report, the average weekly mortgage rate was approximately 7.32%, and the typical buyer’s monthly mortgage payment was $2,786. Affordability remains a genuine challenge, and there’s no guarantee that rates or home prices will decline significantly in the coming months.
But consider the other side of the equation: if mortgage rates eventually fall enough to bring more buyers back into the market, today’s negotiating advantages could disappear.
More competition could mean fewer seller concessions, fewer price reductions, and potentially higher purchase prices. The ideal buying opportunity isn’t necessarily when mortgage rates are at their lowest. It may be when you can negotiate the best overall financial arrangement.
My advice is to focus less on trying to predict the perfect moment to buy and more on determining whether today’s market can work to your advantage.
If you find the right home, can comfortably afford the payment, and negotiate favorable terms, buying this fall could make excellent financial sense. And if mortgage rates improve in the future, refinancing may provide an opportunity to reduce your payment further, although refinancing is never guaranteed.
In Conclusion
As The Lending Coach, my job isn’t simply to help you obtain a mortgage. It’s to help you understand your options, structure your financing intelligently, and make decisions that support your long-term financial goals.
If you’re considering purchasing a home this fall, let’s talk about how we can use today’s changing housing market to your advantage.
Whether you’re purchasing your first home, moving into another property, or looking to expand your real estate investment portfolio, I can help you evaluate the numbers and identify the financing strategy that makes the most sense.
And sometimes, the right mortgage strategy can help turn a challenging real estate market into a valuable opportunity.
Reach out to me directly—I’d be happy to go over the specifics to help you figure out the best plan of action.
As always, you can set up an appointment with me here…
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Starlight Mortgage. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.





























