If you’ve heard that the Fed cut interest rates and wondered why mortgage rates rose instead of fell, you’re not alone.
It’s one of the most common misunderstandings in the market—and last week’s Fed meeting was a perfect example of why that happens.
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 0.25%, and also announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT)—its long-running effort to reduce bond holdings.
Both moves were widely expected, and neither created a big market reaction on their own.
But when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke during his press conference, he made it clear that another rate cut in December was not guaranteed.
When asked about a rate cut in December, Powell stated “it’s not a foregone conclusion – far from it.”
That comment alone shifted market expectations, sending Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher within hours.
Why Mortgage Rates React Differently
Mortgage rates don’t move directly with the Fed’s rate changes. Instead, they follow the bond market, which constantly adjusts based on what investors expect the Fed will do next.
When Powell signaled uncertainty about future cuts, bond traders adjusted those expectations upward—pricing in fewer rate reductions ahead.
That caused bond prices to fall and yields (and mortgage rates) to rise.
In short:
- The Fed’s current rate cut = already expected.
- Powell’s tone about the future = what moved rates higher.
As a result, the average 30-year fixed rose back to levels last seen in mid-October, even though it remains lower than most of the past year.
What’s Next for Mortgage Rates
With the Fed now taking a more cautious approach, the market’s focus shifts back to the economic data that’s been delayed by the government shutdown.
Upcoming reports on jobs and inflation will likely set the tone for where rates go next.
If those reports show inflation cooling or job growth slowing, we could see another move lower in bond yields—and, eventually, mortgage rates. But until that happens, expect volatility to continue around Fed commentary and inflation data.
What This Means for Homebuyers
Even though rates ticked up after the Fed meeting, they’re still hovering near some of the lowest levels in the past year.
For buyers and homeowners considering refinancing, this period remains one of the most favorable we’ve seen since 2022.
Here’s what to do now:
- Lock in a rate if you’re under contract or close to applying.
- Stay informed—the next inflation report could open another window of opportunity.
- Plan ahead—today’s movement shows how quickly markets react to Fed comments.
Reach out to me today to discuss your current situation and to make sure you are not missing out. I’d be happy work with you and explore options.
If it’s easier, you can schedule a call with me here…
The blog postings on this site represent the positions, strategies or opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the positions, strategies or opinions of Guild Mortgage Company or its affiliates. Each loan is subject to underwriter final approval. All information, loan programs, interest rates, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for full eligibility requirements on tax deductions.
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